Mayoral Election 2018

[Pete]

He would make an excellent governor or senator.

Other than that, I bet he wouldn't be interested as he can make a bunch of money now through his business contacts and speaking engagements.

[FighttheGoodFight]

He would make an excellent governor or senator.

Other than that, I bet he wouldn't be interested as he can make a bunch of money now through his business contacts and speaking engagements.

As high profile as his career is I think he would win the governor's race.

[shawnw]

We've thought that of other past good mayors as well...

[dankrutka]

As high profile as his career is I think he would win the governor's race.

Is Cornett socially conservative enough to win a state election in Oklahoma? He's a centrist and I don't think centrists can win state-wide elections in Oklahoma anymore.

[Pete]

I think he was a centrist because the position of mayor has always been non-partisan in OKC and he wanted to (wisely) avoid the political rifts that plagued cities like Tulsa.

He is certainly very pro big-business and that is not a centrist view and an important part of far right platform.

So in other words, yes, I think he could win over those who consider themselves conservatives in this state.

[Midtowner]

I think anyone who thinks Cornett stands a chance in a statewide race doesn't understand Oklahoma politics. In Oklahoma politics, for those statewide races, if you don't play well with the rubes, you aren't going to make it through your primary. Cornett is just too polished and too tied to city politics to fend off a Bible thumping huckster like Todd Lamb.

I think he'd make a fine governor though.

And David Holt will make a fine mayor.

[Pete]

Oklahoma is now 66% urban.

And I think he'd get a ton of support from both OKC and Tulsa.

OKC's renaissance under his reign is probably the best comeback story in the history of the state, and that is recognized throughout Oklahoma.


Not saying he would definitely win, but there are some unique things at play here. Plus, he can easily play up the faith and family values stuff.

[bradh]

I think anyone who thinks Cornett stands a chance in a statewide race doesn't understand Oklahoma politics. In Oklahoma politics, for those statewide races, if you don't play well with the rubes, you aren't going to make it through your primary. Cornett is just too polished and too tied to city politics to fend off a Bible thumping huckster like Todd Lamb.

I think he'd make a fine governor though.

And David Holt will make a fine mayor.

I think Cornett is probably going to ride off into the sunset (I would) but there are probably some folks who might vote for him just because of the Thunder and the story behind it.

Holt would be a fine mayor in the same mold, but if I had to guess I'd think Holt's visions are grander than mayor of OKC.

[gopokes88]

I'll vote for Holt. He's the perfect republican IMHO.

Cornett would win if he ran for governor. Don't underestimate his rural support, he can make the case what's good for okc is good for OK, like the thunder.

[Teo9969]

Cornett would make a great gubernatorial candidate and could win solely based on his ability to get people to work together. He's certainly not a liberal, so that defeats many worries in that vein. Unless we've been completely blind, it's not like he has a dark past that is going to come roaring up if he were to run.

I mean, his ability to get people to sit down at a table and have a discussion is what just about every executive office in this country DESPERATELY needs and what most constituents dream of in their governors/presidents. Oklahoma could only be so lucky to have a candidate like Cornett.

[Urban Pioneer]

I have worked on ten Oklahoma City municipal elections thus far over about fourteen years. Eight out of ten of those elections were successes. This last one was probably the toughest because the candidate put the effort in and we were reasonably well enough financed by donors to deploy 28,000 pieces of exceptionally designed mail, text messaging, phone calls, field workers, and more. He walked over 3,500 doors.

The takeaway from this last one is that it is that the electorate has changed. The OKC municipal voter has gotten older, the pool of municipally engaged voters has gotten smaller, and national politics has permeated this voting group. 88% of the voting demographic is over 48 years of age. Because of the time of year that we have these elections, weather can dramatically affect turnout. Low turnout increases the opportunities for anomalies to have significant impacts.

I am sad to say that a question that came up at the doors over and over again for the candidate was who he voted for president. Does he support Trump? Despite being a registered Republican and a self-professed conservative, responding that city council races are non-partisan and who he voted for was irrelevant, was not an adequate answer. I think it is very hard for a moderate intellectual individual to be elected to office at this point. Non-partisanship in City Council races is no longer valued by the core voter. It is very much an deciding issue now. I think that these sentiments hold even more truth in a low turnout scenario.

In a four-way mayoral race, anything can happen. I expect it to get nasty and bloody. This last city council election is a bellwether warning. If one looks at the southside, Morrisette nearly one outright even though Stone is reasonably well financed. I am not sure if Morisette's campaign paid for the hit piece on Stone or if it was an Independent Expenditure Committee. Regardless, the completely baseless attack that republican Stone was a closeted liberal nearly put Morrisette over the top. It got him very close.

I think that we have entered an era where to win, one may have to go to the absolute far right or far left. I would not be surprised if Ed owns Ward 2 and Ward 6 and stimulates turnout for himself. It will probably be the suburbs versus the inner city. The Bernie folks versus the Trump folks may very well be the election scenario we see play out before our very eyes. This is unprecedented. A positive campaign based on merit, continued civic renaissance, and business may very well have a tough time resonating in a four-way race dominated by partisan politics.

Holt has the built in mechanical advantage. However, in a low turnout election, things may be completely surprising. Logic no longer applies.

[Pete]

"88% of the voting demographic is over 48 years of age"

Holy cow.

People of that age think completely differently and are literally from a different era. Did not grow up with the Internet and many still watch the nightly news and read the newspaper as their primary news sources.

For all the talk about progressiveness, it's the older people (and church goers) who vote in this country and you can see that impact very clearly.

[Midtowner]

I'll vote for Holt. He's the perfect republican IMHO.

Cornett would win if he ran for governor. Don't underestimate his rural support, he can make the case what's good for okc is good for OK, like the thunder.

Like he did with Lake Canton? Sardis?

I think you underestimate the huge middle finger OKC and Tulsa have extended to the rural areas of the state. The Canton incident was years ago and there's still a thread on here where everyone is liveblogging the precipitation in NW Oklahoma.

[HangryHippo]

I think you underestimate the huge middle finger OKC and Tulsa have extended to the rural areas of the state.

I understand the point I think you're making, but damn, at some point the rural parts need to understand that without OKC and Tulsa, there isn't a them for the most part.

[riflesforwatie]

My educated guess is that Cornett wouldn't stand a chance against Lamb in a gubernatorial primary. I'd put the over-under on the margin in a two-way race at 2-to-1. I agree with the poster upthread who said that *winning* statewide elections is all about playing by rules. That's true in both the major parties.

[Midtowner]

I understand the point I think you're making, but damn, at some point the rural parts need to understand that without OKC and Tulsa, there isn't a them for the most part.

From a rational standpoint, you are right. But on the other hand, without the resources being hauled or piped in from rural parts of the state, there wouldn't be an OKC or Tulsa. A successful candidate is going to have to navigate the rural-urban divide, and I don't think Cornett could possibly be up to the task. I don't think that's fair or rational, but it is nevertheless probably true. The fact that OKC is poised on occasion to suck the water out of Sardis, Atoka and Canton is a major issue for the nearby rural communities who still think, for example, that the Lake Canton drawdown was partially done to accommodate a film shot around Lake Hefner.

[SoonerDave]

I'd vote for a steaming pile of what my dog leaves in the back yard before I'd vote for Shadid.

[SoonerDave]

"88% of the voting demographic is over 48 years of age"

Holy cow.

People of that age think completely differently and are literally from a different era. Did not grow up with the Internet and many still watch the nightly news and read the newspaper as their primary news sources.

For all the talk about progressiveness, it's the older people (and church goers) who vote in this country and you can see that impact very clearly.

Hmm.... I am (well) over 48 (52, actually), dumped the nightly news for its gross worthlessness decades ago, and gain news from a variety of sources. And I'm also a churchgoer and haven't purposefully missed a vote/election since I registered 30-something years ago.

Point being that being (slightly) older in the tooth doesn't *quite* mean you're *that* conventional

[TheTravellers]

^^^ Yeah, I'm 51 and I certainly don't conform to the "old folks" category, was playing around on the internet back in 1986, don't watch nightly news or read the newspaper, or drive too slow, or..... I'd say that the cutoff line for the "old folks" should probably be 58 or so instead of 48.

[Pete]

Anyone that participates here is clearly a different bread of cat.

[RustytheBailiff]

^^^ Yeah, I'm 51 and I certainly don't conform to the "old folks" category, was playing around on the internet back in 1986, don't watch nightly news or read the newspaper, or drive too slow, or..... I'd say that the cutoff line for the "old folks" should probably be 58 or so instead of 48.

Yeah and I, being 64, would say that age is more like 78....

[OkieDave]

Lamb has a million dollars in the bank. I think his break with Fallin could backfire - I hope. I would take Cornett over any of the possible Republican candidates, I think Cornett would be a great Lt. Gov. More GO/and Maps $ projects for citizens and neighborhoods. Borrowing 75 million for the last bond for Economic Development, widening roads - subsidizes the wrong things.

[Teo9969]

...I think that we have entered an era where to win, one may have to go to the absolute far right or far left. I would not be surprised if Ed owns Ward 2 and Ward 6 and stimulates turnout for himself. It will probably be the suburbs versus the inner city. The Bernie folks versus the Trump folks may very well be the election scenario we see play out before our very eyes. This is unprecedented. A positive campaign based on merit, continued civic renaissance, and business may very well have a tough time resonating in a four-way race dominated by partisan politics....

I understand your vantage point and concern.

That being said, I believe it's a bit alarmist. The reality is we were coming off an election year on this last round. 2018 will be a very different animal where people are far less inclined to vote for a person based on national partisan politics. Obviously there will always be partisan politics...but it will take a national clust@*@%@ to change the reality in our municipal elections in 2018.

[Urban Pioneer]

I believe it's a bit alarmist.

If I did not have the experience on working on all these campaigns over fourteen years, I wouldn't make such a stark statement. The difference is that voting demographics are now much more tribal. Historically, partisanship has not permeated municipal races to such a degree. The tribalism phenomenon is a new influence in city politics. Or, it can be made to be an influence.

Do you really think that the influence of the Trump folks on the far right or the angry far left will wash out in a year?

We know Ed will go to his base tribe of support. If three Republicans are fighting over their base tribes in the suburbs, in a low turnout election, anything can happen.

Mayor Cornett's involvement in supporting David Holt is critical to permeating that gap and bringing perspective back into the race. Don't be surprised if $1 - $2.5 million collectively is spent on this mayoral election.

[Urban Pioneer]

To further extrapolate, this race will be about the future. Holt represents a continuation of Cornett's philosophies to build our city into a better place that retains and attracts though a better quality of life.

Assuming Ed continues his typical political personality, he will tell you everything that is wrong with the city. And many times, his criticisms are not without their own merit. For him, the difference between being the Mayor and just another council vote is both the megaphone it provides and the Mayoral appointments that come along with it to inject our city's committees and boards with his appointees.

My "alarmist" comments relate to the third major variable is the tribalism factor and the partisanship that comes along with that. How much is that a factor that drowns out a discussion about our city's overall future?