2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

Dorian starting to come apart as expected. Model guidance has half of them dropping the system below TS strength by 72 hours out, but it is looking ragged so may be well before that. Only one has any real strengthening.

[venture]

Dorian is dead and has transitioned back to a tropical wave. Conditions don't appear great for any regeneration for the next few days.

[venture]

Dorian is still trying to reform...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Forecast models are pretty evenly split on bringing it anywhere from up the Florida east coast to into the GoM through the Keys. Half keep it just barely or below Tropical Storm strength through 96 hours and the others take it to a Cat 1 with in 120 hours. So something to watch closely.

In other news, this doesn't happen often and I've been neglecting it, Tropical Storm Flossie in the Central Pacific will be making landfall tonight on the Big Island of Hawai'i.

5 Day Track for FLOSSIE

Storm Archive

Forecast Advisory #018 0900 UTC

Public Advisory #000 200 AM HST

Discussion #018 1100 PM HST

Wind Speed Probabilities #018 0900 UTC

ICAO Advisory #018 0900 UTC

Watch/Warning Breakpoints #018 1100 PM HST

Hawaiian Watches/Warnings

Flossie main page	5 Day Track	Intensity Probability Table	Wind History	Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities
50-knot Wind Speed Probabilities	Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities	Sea Surface Temperatures	1-2-3 Rule	kml
Probability Charts	ZULU SIGMET

Press Refresh/Reload to view the most recent image.

[venture]

Dorian might rise again if things happen fast...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

[venture]

Advisories have restarted on Tropical Depression Dorian as of this morning.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013


RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B
AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.


AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING ASSIGNED TO DORIAN BASED ON
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD NOTED IN ASCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DORIAN
COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40
KT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONGER WIND
SHEAR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD SHEAR APART AND
WEAKEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72
HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.


IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF DORIAN DOES BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR
WATCHES FOR ANY LAND AREAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 03/0900Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.9N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 31.4N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 35.2N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

[Easy180]

Heading to Daytona Beach next weekend...Anything cooking down in the tropics that might be concerning?

[venture]

Heading to Daytona Beach next weekend...Anything cooking down in the tropics that might be concerning?

You should be good. Just typical Florida weather...sun in the morning, rain in the afternoon. LOL

[Easy180]

You should be good. Just typical Florida weather...sun in the morning, rain in the afternoon. LOL

Good to hear. Last hijack question

Since we are there 7 nights how long does it typically take for a storm to form way out in the tropics until it may affect my vacation spot?

[venture]

Good to hear. Last hijack question

Since we are there 7 nights how long does it typically take for a storm to form way out in the tropics until it may affect my vacation spot?

Depends where it sets up. Anything out east of the islands would take normally 5-10 days. Its tough to really have anything sneak up on you.

[Anonymous.]

Could have something developing in the western Gulf over the next couple days.

[venture]

Could have something developing in the western Gulf over the next couple days.

Two areas of concern per NHC today. We are getting close to peak season so things should pick up pretty good now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.


2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[venture]

Invest 92L would be the system moving into the Gulf...

​








Invest 93 is out in the Eastern Atlantic...

[OKCisOK4me]

Come on BAMM 14!

[venture]

NHC Update...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

[venture]

[venture]

TD Five (is Alive!)

Tropical Depression FIVE

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

[jn1780]

Number 5 is alive! Lol

[venture]

Number 5 is alive! Lol

I'm glad someone caught that.

[venture]

TD 5 is now TS Erin. The wave near the Yucatan weakened overnight.

[venture]

Tropical Update for this evening.

Erin is still spinning out in the Eastern Atlantic. No threat to anyone but the fish and boats. Sharknado Watch up for them.

Invest 92 is moving over the Yucatan this evening. Models develop it once it is into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico.

First part...track. The model spread is roughly 75% landfall from near Corpus south along the Northern Mexican coast. Moving the system NW and dying over the mountains or in SW Texas. The others call for a landfall between the Central TX coast up to west of New Orleans. It then moves the system north over an area ranging from Oklahoma through Georgia. Needless to say, a huge spread...but the favorite has to be a Mexico landfall as of right now.

Second...Intensity. Models are pretty much 50/50 split here. Half keep it at or below 35 kts for the light of the storm. The others take it to Tropical Storm strength between 24 and 48 hours out - a little aggressive, IMO. So best thing right now is to go in the middle and figure Depression (if it can form) through 48 hours and then up to a 50 kt storm before landfall. if it turns north then the intensity would go up with more water to play with.

Too early to say what impacts on Oklahoma, if any, it will have right now.

[ljbab728]

Too early to say what impacts on Oklahoma, if any, it will have right now.

Based on what has already happened this summer, it probably means about 10 inches of rain. LOL

[venture]

Invest 92 is just about done for...

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[venture]

Invest 95 is getting a little better organized in the Southern Gulf. Expected to go into Mexico if it organizes.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

[venture]

Hurricane Hunter heading down towards the Bay of Campeche today. Invest 95 will probably get upgraded just before making landfall.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[venture]

Advisories have started on Tropical Depression 6.