Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

[Roadhawg]

Maybe soon. I'll post more this evening. I'm also working on a new weather program (for PC) to help make a lot of the severe weather stuff easier to understand. If anyone has any requests for features toss them my way.

Very good... just making sure you were still around

[venture]

Slight Risk tomorrow for Western OK

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM INTO NEB/KS/WRN OK
BY 20/00Z. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SFC PRESSURE WILL RISE IN
THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK
HEATING. VERY WARM EML WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION
EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ELONGATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IT APPEARS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
EVEN SO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS/NWRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT TOWARD EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATEST DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATION OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM SECTOR CAP. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
GIVEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE
RESERVED TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
WARM ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

[venture]

Initiation looks to be between 4 and 6 PM in NW OK this afternoon. Storms will move generally off to the East/Northeast. Could see some into Central areas late tonight, but severe threat should be down by then but could still see a few severe reports.

...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLNS TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST. THIS
FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.

BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS. NEW STORMS...WITH A
GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.

MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN.

[venture]

Good line of cu developing in nw ok...watch is up now.

[venture]

Watch has been extended into the Metro area (western parts)...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 282
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012


OKC015-017-200300-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0282.000000T0000Z-120520T0300Z/


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 282 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES


IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


CANADIAN


IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA


CADDO


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...EL RENO...
MUSTANG AND YUKON.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 281...WW 282...WW 283...

DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING...ONE OVER W-CNTRL OK...AND THE OTHER OVER S-CNTRL KS...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL
OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY MOIST...STEEP
LAPSE RATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

[venture]

So you might be thinking...has May seemed abnormally quiet? So far for the month of May we've had 3 total severe weather days.

May 1st had our only tornadoes for the month of May and that was with activity that was on going after Midnight from April 30th. The other two days were May 4th in a very localized area of SW OK and then a couple days ago - May 19th. The numbers for the month so far...

Tornadoes: 2
Wind Reports (56 mph +): 25
Significant Wind Reports (75 mph+): 6
Hail Reports (1" +): 30
Significant Hail Reports (2" +): 5

April was a very big month for us overall and historically when April is very active May is usually the same. This year seems to be the opposite to that as the main jet stream has stayed well north. This week it looks like it'll drop south some as a trough forms to the our west, but will again retreat back north through the first week of June. Even though we all love not having to get a new roof every year, there is the need for rain to mitigate any summer fire danger. There is hope. As the jet stream moves back north we will ease into a Northwest flow pattern (typical June-like storm pattern) by the middle of next week. This should assist in getting us some storms here...probably the typical complex situations of storms forming in KS/CO and diving SE towards us.

So going off the 00Z GFS...here is what we are looking at.

- Now through probably May 28th/Monday dry. Could see chances increase out west before this, but overall looks dry.
- Tues May 29th: Transition to NW flow begins and chance of storms mainly I-40 and to the north. Instability moderate to high. Severe possible.
- Weds May 30th: Storms possible over much of the state, higher chances west with complex from KS. Severe possible.
- Thurs May 31st: Heavy Rain/Storms possible early western half from storm complex. Severe possible.
- Fri June 1st: Chance of storms Western 1/3rd as complex drops south. Dry elsewhere.
- Sat June 2nd: Dry.
- Sun June 3rd: Chance of storms Central & West.
- Mon June 4th: Chance of storms Southwest half of OK. Severe possible.
- Tue June 5th: Chance of storms all of OK, best chance Central / East. Severe possible.
- Wed June 6th: The last day of the forecast window is always goofy. Chance of rain and we'll leave it at that.

So something I'll point out. It always appears GFS loads up the 2nd week of its forecast with storm chances, but then they seem to not happen. So keep that in mind when looking at this. Though indications are we'll get into a better pattern for storm development, this is not written in stone.

[OKCTalker]

Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.

[damonsmuz]

Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.

[venture]

Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.

You're reading it wrong. We had a total of 3 severe weather days...May 1st, 4th, and 19th. The only two tornadoes that were recorded in May were on May 1st as I stated. These were in NE Oklahoma where I had already accounted for the time different. So they they are on the April 30th report, but they occurred after Midnight CDT (0500 UTC). My apologies if it was difficult to understand. I already accounted for the time difference and based it on the actual local time the events took place, not when they showed up on an SPC report.

Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.

Dryline will be out there, but little support for anything to develop.

[damonsmuz]

Me reading things wrong has been known to happen SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weath...t_2012aprflood

[damonsmuz]

It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on

[venture]

Me reading things wrong has been known to happen SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weath...t_2012aprflood

The TSA would probably be correct since the SPC reports are only prelim reports.

It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on

Not a typo. Storm Reports go 7AM to 7AM CDT.

[damonsmuz]

Dang, yes. NWS goes 1am-1am and SPC reports goes 7am-7am. OK, now that all that has been settled. Meteorology is complicated enough as it is...sometimes it would be nice if a simple storm report and the date it actually happened was just a simple. Argh

[venture]

Things still appear to be on track for severe weather to return early next week. May going out with a bang just like it came in (sort of)?

[sacolton]

Venture, is there any indication we will have another brutal summer like last year?

[venture]

Drought conditions are starting to reappear across the state, so if that continues it would definitely help drive more heat over the summer. We'll have to see though. Last summer was crazy so hopefully we stay away from a repeat.

[venture]

Slight Risk has been added today for all of Western OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD OWING TO
THE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
LOWER CO VALLEY...AND SUBSEQUENT NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE INTO MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
PATTERN...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO WRN
ONTARIO WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD INTO QUEBEC.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING WSWWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. A
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WARM FRONT OVER WRN KS SWD TO ALONG THE
TX/OK BORDER AND INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OWING TO THE RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME
MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WITHIN AIR MASS W OF DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS
INTO W-CNTRL TX MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SWD INTO THE ERN TX
PNHDL/WRN OK.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY /MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J PER
KG/ OWING TO THE COLLOCATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO EML. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS WARM FRONT WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG DRYLINE. IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS WEAKER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY ANYWHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE AND
BECOME SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN
EXTENSION OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED.

[venture]

Severe storms are on going out west right now.



Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER VORTICITY MAX. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND RATHER STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

[venture]

Something unique...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

OKZ004>006-009>011-015-017-260600-
/O.NEW.KOUN.HW.W.0004.120526T0325Z-120526T0600Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-DEWEY-BLAINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...TALOGA...WATONGA
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY.

* TIMING: STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM.

* WINDS: WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS:THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING AROUND OBJECTS THAT ARE NOT TIED
DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO KEEP YOUR VEHICLE ON THE ROAD AND CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

[venture]

Slight Risk far NW today & tomorrow... Slight Risk for much of Central/SW OK for Memorial Day...

TODAY:
...WRN KS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE...BUT WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK
S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGLY BUOYANT
AIR MASS IN NEB/KS/OK.

MEMORIAL DAY...
...SRN PLAINS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY AND THE CAP WEAKENS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SEEMS PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND
SOUTHWEST OK. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 29/00Z AT WICHITA
FALLS SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM NEAR LUBBOCK NEWD TO THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA
WHERE THE GFS SHOWS A THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MONDAY EVENING.

[bandnerd]

Venture -- was that crazy wind from the storms out west falling apart?

[venture]

Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.

[bandnerd]

Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.

THAT'S what they're called. I remembered that's a possibility, from the collapsing storms, but I couldn't remember the term. I'll try and commit it to memory this time!

[venture]

As promised we would see a return to severe weather in the state this week. Slight risks in the state the next 3 days.

TODAY - NW OK:

...CENTRAL PLAINS NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON -- FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTS EWD. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES -- BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM TO AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP -- AND EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE MOST CONCENTRATED
THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. HERE...50 TO 60 KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 20 C OR MORE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED...TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND KS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
LINEARLY ORGANIZED...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW - CENTRAL TO SW OK:

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAKER PORTION OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION/EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR
ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
EVEN WITH RELATIVELY NEBULOUS BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS READILY PLAUSIBLE...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...GIVEN AMPLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND SUFFICIENT
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WHILE LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MODEST...MLCAPE TO 2500-3500 J/KG AND
RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES
INCLUDING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL INTO EARLY
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX COULD EVOLVE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR OK EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED
LARGE HAIL THREAT.

TUESDAY - CENTRAL/SW OK

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS A MODESTLY STRONG/LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES OTHERWISE PERSIST. DETAILED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH INTO THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
OK/NORTH TX. WITH HEAT-AIDED WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
AND/OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OK. LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.