Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[SoonerDave]

Tornadoes in D/FW area as we speak. Will see what breaks this afternoon here.

Suspect that the extensive rainfall and persistent cloud cover from the early storms here in OK have worked to keep the atmosphere cool enough such that the tornadic/severe threat here in central OK is very small. Appears the early cloudcover in N. Texas eroded/burned off early morning, allowing for lots of warming, and that really started the pot boiling with lots of convection and moisture for lots of surface-based storms to erupt very quickly. Don't know if anyone else saw it, but a Dallas TV station had a radar image on their website of the twin supercells over Dallas along with a tremendous hook echo signature on one of the storms..

[ou48A]

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

[kevinpate]

Yeah, but in fairness to them, they get far less practice at doing it.

[jn1780]

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.

[adaniel]

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

FWIW I have a high school buddy that works for WFAA, the local ABC affiliate down there, as a production engineer. During the May 2011 outbreak of storms they ran nonstop weather coverage due to several tornadoes and power flashes being reported in the city of Dallas. The next day they received something like 2,000 angry emails from people pissed they they interrupted the season finale of some show (Desperate Housewives?) to tell them "it was raining." So I think that tells you the priorities of people in DFW in regards to weather coverage.

[ou48A]

Yeah, but in fairness to them, they get far less practice at doing it.

They don’t devote anything close to the time or resources (budget) that the OKC TV stations (4-5-9) do.
As a result the safety knowledge among DFW residents is much lower in the DFW area.

[ou48A]

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.

Sometimes that’s true but unfortunately it’s sometimes what it takes to motivate people to take the situation seriously when its really needed.

[woodyrr]

I have been visiting the DFW Metroplex during tornado events and it is very frustrating. Today, while there were two large supercells with textbook hook echoes southwest of downtown Dallas and south of downtown Dallas, WFAA had its helicopter off in the middle of nowhere looking for damage. As if that wasn't bad enough, they were taking video live from the chopper of grassy fields and parking lots instead of the meteorologist standing in front of a chroma key radar image tracking both cells alternately street by street and telling residents how best to protect themselves.

Overhyped at it is, we have it comparatively good here in central Oklahoma when it comes to tornado coverage.

[Ginkasa]

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.

I'd rather take them than anyone else though.

[blangtang]

I was flipping around and saw that Crazy Mike has the lows down in the mid 40's the next two nights, and the other station didn't have anything lower than low 50's. In the grand scheme of things its not that big of a difference, but it makes me wonder how certain stations get "extreme" with their forecasts.

[venture]

A bit more settled across the Southern Plains today. This afternoon though could see popup storms thanks to daytime heating and upper air instability. Storms should start to develop between 3 and 5pm today and should be wrapped up by 11pm. Main risk today will be some marginally severe hail and some gusty winds.

[venture]

Going to look at the last 3 GFS model runs here to just give a highlight to upcoming days that have the potential for severe weather...

00Z GFS
Friday 4/6: SW OK
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, Eastern OK
Sunday 4/8: SW, Central, and Eastern OK
Monday 4/9: Southern OK
Thursday 4/19: Central third

006Z GFS
Friday 4/6: Western OK
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, NE OK

012Z GFS
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, NE OK
Monday 4/9: Southern 2/3rds of OK

[venture]

Some storms moving into Central OK. Some gusty winds and half inch hail possible.

[venture]

Severe risk today will be limited to mostly south of I-40. Some early morning storms are continuing ahead of a boundary in northern OK. Some small hail with those. A better chance of severe weather on Monday and again on Thursday.

[Easy180]

Venture...What is the outlook for our kiddos hunting eggs tomorrow afternoon?

[venture]

First off...welcome to the Plains in Spring. That sums up the week. LOL

SPC Outlook Overview
Monday: Slight Risk with enhanced area for large damaging hail. Most of Oklahoma is covered by this expect for the NE Quarter of the state and Western Panhandle.

Tuesday: Slight Risk Panhandle and Western 2 tiers of counties. Main risk damaging wind and hail.

Thursday: Risk area for most of the body of Oklahoma. Main risk large hail and tornadoes with supercells along dryline.

Saturday: Risk area for most of the body of Oklahoma, again. Similar story to Thursday with tornadoes and hail being main risks.

[ou48A]

I have seen 2 local OKC TV MET’s report that we have a chance for a significant severe weather event next week end.

[Tydude]

OKC is under a slight risk of Severe weather tomorrow w

[jn1780]

I have seen 2 local OKC TV MET’s report that we have a chance for a significant severe weather event next week end.

Well, the SPC is confident enough to highlight Thursday and Saturday this far in advance. That usually says something.

[SoonerDave]

Well, the SPC is confident enough to highlight Thursday and Saturday this far in advance. That usually says something.

I've seen a few weather types on Twitter tweet about advanced maps for Thursday and for folks to get their chasing gear ready.....

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan indicated tonight that Sunday could be a very sigficant day of very serious weather

[venture]

Latest model data still coming in (GFS is only out to day 3 so far)...

Monday Outlook

Slight Risk west of a line from Ponca City to Okmulgee to McAlester to Hugo.
Main Risk: Very Large Hail (tennis ball or larger) transitioning to Damaging Winds as storms move South and East.
Initiation: NW Oklahoma/NE TX PH around mid Afternoon.
Storm Movement: SE @ 20-30 mph (if a complex forms this could speed up considerably)
Discussion: Storms will form up in the early/mid afternoon over the far NW portions of OK. Coverage will gradually expand and intensities will increase. Storms will reach the Red River by 1AM. Locally heavy rain is likely. Very large hail is probably with early storms until threats transitions to mostly wind damage.

Tuesday/Wednesday Outlook
Slight Risk of severe weather over far Southwest OK, especially Tuesday. General risk of storms else where during the afternoon/evening. Marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.

Thursday Outlook
Slight Risk of severe weather mainly over far Western OK. Main risk is for tornadoes, hail and wind.

Following Outlooks are from the 18Z GFS since it isn't available as of this writing.

Friday Outlook

Slight risk appears likely over much of Oklahoma west of I-35. Large hail and tornadoes will be main threat. This would include most of Central OK and the OKC metro area in this risk area.

Extended Days

Saturday looks potentially bumpy as well. Much of the same area as Friday just a hair further to the east. Threat continues in Sunday some until everything finally pushes out. More updates as we get closer. Keep in mind any pre-existing activity can throw off the next day's chances so things can change pretty quickly.

[venture]

SPC outlooks aren't that far off from what I mentioned last night. They initially came out with a Moderate Risk for today, but the morning forecast team pulled it back about an hour ago. Will not post the graphics here since they are available on the first page of this thread in a more organized manner. :-)

SPC Outlook Overview

Monday/Today - Slight risk most of the state except eastern OK. Large damaging hail main threat.
Tuesday - Slight Risk far Western OK and the PH. Hail & Wind main threat.
Wednesday - Slight Risk Panhandles.
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Severe Weather Risk Central & West Thursday and Friday, most of OK on Saturday.

[venture]

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0748 am cdt mon apr 09 2012

valid 091300z - 101200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms this afternoon through tonight
for wrn ok and nw tx...

...wrn ok/nw tx area through tonight...
A diffuse front extends from nrn ok into sw ks...with boundary layer
dewpoints of 56-60 f representative of the tx/ok warm sector n of
i-10. Aloft...the large scale ridge extends from far w tx nnwwd to
the nrn rockies...though an embedded/subtle speed max is expected to
crest the ridge in co today and move sewd over ok tonight. Daytime
heating/mixing will help consolidate a dryline across the
central/ern tx panhandle this afternoon. The primary focus for
thunderstorm development will be the dryline/front in advance of the
subtle speed max this afternoon...with storms expected to spread
sewd across wrn/central ok and nw tx overnight.

Modified forecast and observed soundings support afternoon mlcape
values near 1500 j/kg as a result of the modest low-level moisture
beneath midlevel lapse rates of 8.5 c/km. Meanwhile...vertical
shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for ssewd-moving
supercells with nwly effective-bulk shear of 35-45 kt. Low-level
shear will be strongest invof the surface front across nw ok this
afternoon...where effective srh could approach 200 m2/s2.

The general scenario is for storms to form around 21z near the
dryline/front intersection and then spread sewd through the evening.
Discrete supercells will be possible with the initial
development...with an attendant risk for very large hail and a
couple of tornadoes. Later this evening into tonight...convection
will tend to grow upscale into a cluster or two...aided by a 30 kt
sswly llj and associated warm advection. The risk for at least
isolated large hail and damaging winds will persist well into

[ou48A]

Mesoscale Discussion 478< Previous MD
Mesoscale Discussion 478
< Previous MD


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091854Z - 092030Z

SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID CLOUD DECK LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ALOFT NOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA.
THUS...EXPECT THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
IMMINENT -- POSSIBLY ARISING FROM WITHIN A NEW CU FIELD NOW
DEVELOPING OVER BEAVER CO OK/CLARK CO KS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- IS APPARENT NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS -- AND THUS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER --
STILL PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS...THE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL
IS FAIRLY NARROW ATTM. S OF THE FRONT...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
INTO WRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.