Tropical Weather Discussion 2011

[venture]

This is okay. Even though the core will be going the wrong way, the overall system is still huge....pulling in the moisture....and all that swirling clouds should cover us and be giving us rain. Right?

Not really. The storm is actually pretty small and it'll likely not impact our weather at all - as it appears right now.

[BG918]

The GFDL model is bringing Don straight up into Oklahoma this weekend. The HWRF brings it up into the TX panhandle and then northward over the OK panhandle and western KS. All except the BAMD and BAMM bring the system northward over Texas and NM a couple days after landfall which would be good for our rain/cloud chances.

Venture, any model you particularly like over the other?

[venture]

The GFDL model is bringing Don straight up into Oklahoma this weekend. The HWRF brings it up into the TX panhandle and then northward over the OK panhandle and western KS. All except the BAMD and BAMM bring the system northward over Texas and NM a couple days after landfall which would be good for our rain/cloud chances.

Venture, any model you particularly like over the other?

I always have liked the NOGAPS model for tropical weather, but GFDL, HWRF, etc are nice as well.

So looking at the models this evening, everything seems on track for a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall. System will move W or WNW and eventually fall apart. We could get some moisture tossed back this way, but it really isn't look promising at all. So with that we turn our attention to the next system.

Invest 91L is about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles - so waaaaaaaay out there in the Atlantic still. NHC has it projected at a 30% probability for development. The model spread is pretty good with this and taking it W to WNW into the Caribbean in about 96 hours - give or take. Models are giving it a low chance of development right now, and a very slow time at doing so. It is still a long way out and really too early to say where it is going to go, how strong it will get, etc.

Half the models have it curving NE after 96 hours moving into area just north of PR and Hispaniola. There is a flaw with this think though...and that is the massive high over the Atlantic blocking any chance for anything to get through it. Pretty much anything right now that develops in the ITCZ in the Atlantic is going into the Caribbean and Gulf. Which could start to raise some eyebrows as we are about a month out of season peak...and these systems could do tremendous things for the drought areas. Well, in a sense. Unfortunately the rain will likely come down in gallons all at once and it'll just wash the top soil away and not to much, but the weeds will be green at least again.

[venture]

Don has made landfall this evening in Texas and is rapidly falling apart. It should be dissipated in about 24 hours from the way it looks.

Two other systems are out there. 1) Is in the western Caribbean but is interacting with land too much so won't do a lot. 2) Is the developing tropical wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles. NHC has raised it to a 50% chance of developing and could very well be a depression in a day or two - if not sooner.

[venture]

The next tropical depression should start getting advisories on it either late tonight or tomorrow. This will be Emily when it gets a name and will likely be a tropical storm tomorrow and hurricane by Monday or Tuesday.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

Latest forecast are almost all in pretty good agreement that the next tropical system could possibly recurve out in the Atlantic as it approach the Bahamas and US East Coast. The all seem to be moving the massive Atlantic High back to the east.

[venture]

Model guideance today on the system that will become Emily has shifted slight to the left today. A couple take the system through the Caribbean now, but the vast majority still bring the system on a WNW and eventual NW to NNW track as it goes north of Hispaniola, PR, and approaches the Bahamas.

[venture]

Special Outlook out of NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Forecast models are further to the left (west) today, suggesting the potential for some impact along the east coast - if not an outright landfall - in 4 to 6 days out.

Some specific models...
GFDL takes it east of the Bahamas and back into the Atlantic, possibly impacting Bermuda later. Max strength around 80 kts - or Category 2 Hurricane.
HWRF takes it along and north of the islands into the Central Bahamas in 5 days as a Category 2 Hurricane moving WNW...possibly with a landfall in Central or Southern Florida.
GFS brings a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane into Southern Florida in 5 days and then rides up the entire peninsula until re-entering the Atlantic around Jacksonville where it'll move NE out to sea.
ECMWF brings the system close to southern Florida but recurves it out to sea before landfall.

Those with travel plans to Florida later this week and over the weekend should keep an eye on this, as those posts who love out there. If anything, this could help the severe drought in Southern Florida and the extreme/exceptional drought in Georgia and South Carolina.

[venture]

Advisories have begun on Tropical Storm Emily. Official forecast brings, then Category 1 Hurricane Emily near South Florida in 120 hours.




TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD
0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE
THE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2330Z 15.2N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.6N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.4N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.4N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

[venture]

Forecast from NHC is updated.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY. A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.7N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

[ou48A]

The WX channel has been showing a few computer models that take Emily into the gulf.

[venture]

The WX channel has been showing a few computer models that take Emily into the gulf.

Here is the latest model spread. I put the Pacific systems on there too just to show no hope of anything coming up the Gulf of California to maybe swing some moisture our way.

There is a definitely a mass preference for a NW course east of Florida and out to sear, but yeah...there are a handful of models that went to go either into Florida or the Gulf. Not buying them just yet.

[BG918]

I think the NHC will veer its track to the west in the next forecast update. Not into the Gulf but toward SE Florida. It is interesting though that just in the latest few runs the BAMS, BAMM and BAMD started to take this system further west. There is still hope lol.

[Thunder]

Why are all these models so different on the tracks? Over the years, why have they not learned enough to solidly predict a storm's track?

[venture]

I think the NHC will veer its track to the west in the next forecast update. Not into the Gulf but toward SE Florida. It is interesting though that just in the latest few runs the BAMS, BAMM and BAMD started to take this system further west. There is still hope lol.

Looks like they held off for now, but they are also waiting on Emily to begin moving NW again which she hasn't just yet. Hinting that if she continues this, they will have to modify the forecast to meet up with the guidance and show her coming closer to Florida and the SE US.

Why are all these models so different on the tracks? Over the years, why have they not learned enough to solidly predict a storm's track?

Certain models pick up on different elements...they all aren't coded the same. It is better to have some variety though to understand all the possibilities with systems, and not just be led down a path that will be wrong. Tropical systems are also a pain in the butt to predict. So many little things can happen to have the system act a different way than models can predict. Heck, there is even a chance this thing plows into Hispaniola and gets torn apart by the mountains on the island. It has happened before. Another thing is if it gets too far west, it could pull in drier air and choke it off. It is really more complicated than you know and these models undergo continuous updating to adjust for different forecast theories by their programmers.

[venture]

Discussed the possibility and it happened. Emily has been down graded to a remnant trough today as the surface low completely opened up and isn't a closed circulation anymore. The NHC has therefore stopped all advisories for the system unless regeneration occurs, which is highly unlikely at this time.

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Emily may be back tomorrow.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[BG918]

If Emily does redevelop, which it appears it will, it will quickly move north and then race northeast out into the Atlantic. South Florida and especially the Bahamas will see some heavy rain, some gusty winds and clouds but that's it. Other than that the tropics are eerily quiet for this time of year. I honestly can't remember a stranger weather year in my lifetime.

[venture]

Advisories have been restarted on Emily.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Okay two parts. Official NHC outlook and then mine.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Could see a few things develop over the next week to 10 days.

- Tropical Wave discussed above under #2 looks like it could develop down the road and move WNW north of the islands before recurving back out to sea.
- Another tropical wave behind it could develop a day or two behind that one and move mostly WNW to W and stay closer to the islands/Florida.
- Another system may spin up towards the end of this week off the east coast and move out to sea rather quickly.
- Yet another wave, behind the others, could move and develop in the Caribbean and move W to NW through the area up over the Yucatan into the Gulf and then landfall in Mexco. This would be towards the last half of the month.

Don't bet much on the above, just an observation of what the models are showing. I know some are saying it has been really quiet...but the peak is coming. Here we have the potential for 4 systems to develop in the next 2 weeks.

[venture]

Active period in the tropics appears to be incoming - not a shock as we are now a few weeks away from the seasonal peak.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.



2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

Four areas of potential organization now in the Atlantic basin. No major differences from the forecast tracks from yesterday.

- System 1 or Invest 92L appears that it will move NW and eventual recurve out near or to the east of Bermuda.
- System 2 or Invest 93L appears that it will remain moving W to WNW and potentially impact the Lesser Antilles in 5 to 6 days.
- System 3 or Invest 95L appears that it will remain off shore between North Carolina and Bermuda and move NE out to sea merging with a frontal system.
- System 4 or Invest 94L appears it will be somewhat similar to 92L and will move NW and curve fairly quickly out to sea and come close to, or move east of, Bermuda.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

System 3/Invest 95L has been upgraded to TD 6.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

TD6 was upgraded to Franklin earlier...but will be extratropical in the next several hours.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULD
BE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODED
SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROM
CIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER
THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 39.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 39.9N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 40.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/0000Z 40.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/1200Z 40.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Franklin is now dead...TD 7 though is born.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD
BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL
COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT
400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD
DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM