Severe Weather Discussion - August 10 through ??

[venture]

I could be wrong about this, but a wet summer (like this) followed by a cool dry period with nightime temps just above freezing should give us some good fall colors come late mid/late October.

Sounds right. I think our biggest issue is getting the cool fall to happen. Typically it seems to be we'll stay warm into October, leaves will start to change, and then the wind arrives and the leaves go away with in a day. LOL

[venture]

Slight risk for this evening is North and West of a line from Hollis to Hobart to El Reno to Edmond to Stillwater to Ponca City to the state line.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND ERN FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
STMS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES SWD TO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NERN NM...IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS ERN CO. REF WW 709 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM THREAT GUIDANCE. WIND PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS KS/OK
BORDER REGION GIVEN STG CONSENSUS OF PROGS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
STG-SVR MCS OVER THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE-RICH/30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ AND RELATE ENHANCEMENTS TO BOTH BUOYANCY AND STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1155 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 710...

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WHILE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE SUGGEST THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1225 am cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Caddo county in southwest oklahoma...
Kiowa county in southwest oklahoma...
Wa****a county in western oklahoma...

* until 130 am cdt

* at 1225 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles south of
lone wolf to 5 miles northeast of corn...moving east at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...
Hail up to the size of pennies...

* locations in the warning include albert...alfalfa...anadarko...
Apache...bessie...binger...boone...burns flat...carnegie...cloud
chief...colony...cooperton...cordell...corn...cowd en...dill city...
Eakly...fort cobb reservoir...fort cobb...foss...gotebo...
Gracemont...hinton...hobart...lake chickasha...lone wolf...
Lookeba...mountain view...rocky...sentinel and stecker.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1230 am cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western canadian county in central oklahoma...
Western kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern custer county in western oklahoma...

* until 130 am cdt

* at 1228 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles south of
eagle city to 26 miles southwest of geary...moving east at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include calumet...canton...cedar lake...
Concho...dover...eagle city...el reno...extreme southeastern canton
lake...geary...greenfield...hennessey...hitchcock. ..homestead...
Kingfisher...lacey...longdale...loyal...okarche... okeene...omega...
Southard and watonga.

[westsidesooner]

Guess I'd better go take down the patio umbrella before I go to bed. Again.

[venture]

Measured wind at 58 mph at mesonet site between Weatherford and Clinton.

[jstanthrnme]

Is tonights storm considered a derecho?

[venture]

60 mph measured at mesonet west of Hinton.

We aren't having widespread wind damage yet, so it not really a derecho.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
121 am cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Grady county in central oklahoma...
Kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Logan county in central oklahoma...
Western mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern stephens county in southern oklahoma...
Eastern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...
Comanche county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 215 am cdt

* at 121 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from hennessey to 3
miles east of kingfisher to el reno to 3 miles southwest of
anadarko to meers to 3 miles northeast of indiahoma...moving east
at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include acme...agawam...alex...amber...
Anadarko...apache...arcadia...bethany...blanchard. ..boone...
Bradley...bridge creek...cache...calumet...cashion...cedar lake...
Cedar valley...cement...central high...chickasha...choctaw...
Cimarron city...cogar...cole...concho...crescent...criner.. .
Cyril...del city...dibble...dover...edmond...el reno...elgin...
Fletcher...forest park...fort sill...goldsby...gracemont...
Guthrie...harrah...hennessey...indiahoma...jones.. .kingfisher...
Lake aluma...lake chickasha...lake ellsworth...lake lawtonka...
Laverty...lawton...lovell...luther...marlow...mars hall...medicine
park...meers...meridian...middleberg...midwest city...minco...
Moore...mulhall...mustang...navina...newcastle...n ichols hills...
Nicoma park...ninnekah...noble...norge...norman...northwe stern lake
thunderbird...okarche...oklahoma city...piedmont...pocasset...
Richland...rush springs...seward...spencer...stanley draper lake...
Stecker...sterling...tabler...the village...tinker air force
base...tuttle...union city...valley brook...verden...warr acres...
Washington...wichita mountains wildlife refuge and yukon.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712...

VALID 190624Z - 190800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH ONGOING MCS. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE OKC METRO AREA BY AROUND 07Z...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ERN PORTION OF WW BETWEEN 08-09Z. SHOULD SYSTEM
MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
PRIOR TO THAT TIME.

AS OF 0610Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING MCS
EXTENDING FROM ALFALFA AND MAJOR COUNTIES SWD THROUGH BLAINE AND
CADDO COUNTIES AND THEN MORE SWWD THROUGH KIOWA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. SYSTEM MOTION WAS EWD AT 35-40 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT A RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS MCS N OF
FSI...EXTENDING EWD TO N OF ADM...THEN TURNING SSEWD INTO NERN TX.
AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG.

NOTABLE MESO-HIGH/LOW COUPLET EVIDENT IN OBSERVED SURFACE PRESSURE
FIELD AND OBSERVED 55-65 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG
COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MCS...DESPITE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING CAP/CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

..MEAD.. 08/19/2009

[venture]

Mesonet showing the reported winds with the system coming through.

[venture]

57 mph gust right now at Minco.

[Thunder]

Hi, Venture. I'm watching the storm, too.

[venture]

OKC Micronet has mostly 35-50 mph winds across most of the city right now.

[venture]

Strongest winds on mesonet now in Cleveland & McClain counties with winds 45-55 mph right now.

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...PLAINS STATES...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MORNING
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THIS BROADER TROUGH...EACH MAY FOCUS A SERIES OF CLUSTERS/MCS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT REMAINS
QUITE COMPLEX AS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY PRECEEDING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. APPEARS UPGRADE IN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WITHIN THIS
BROADER SLGT RISK...ALTHOUGH TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TO
CAPTURE GREATER RISK AREAS ATTM.

MORNING MCS NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH EJECTED OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWING DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. ATTM...EXPECT POCKETS OF MORNING
HEATING SHOULD INCREASE SEVERE THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT STEADILY NEWD TOWARDS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF SSWLY LLJ/SFC WARM FRONT...SUPERCELL
AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER
MO INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEYS WHERE HEATING CAN SUPPORT MODEST
MLCAPE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST SHIFTING
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO ERN NEB LATER TODAY ALONG ESEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE STORM
EVOLUTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO TONIGHT.

DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING/RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EXTENSIVE EARLY
MORNING MCS OVER OK/KS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF RESIDUAL SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FRONT EXTENDING SW-NE FROM PARTS OF WRN OK INTO WRN MO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS STORMS EVOLVE AS MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK AS DEEP
ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVERNIGHT
ATOP SEWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT.

[venture]

Updated outlook.

Slight risk roughly in the same place. North and west of a line fron the OK/TX border SW of Frederick to Lawton to Pauls Valley to Holdenville to Checotah to Stilwell and the OK/AR border.

The enhanced area of tornado potential, where there are some boundaries floating around that may cause 1 or 2 (5% chance) is in an area north and east of a line from Manchester/Wakita to Waynoka to Putname to El Reno the northern half of the metro to Prague to Broken Arrow...then west of a line from Broken Arrow to Chelsea to Nowata to Bartlesville to the KS line. Essentially draw an oval in North Central Oklahoma.

...OK/ERN KS/WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE REMNANT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING CO YESTERDAY APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS AS OF MID MORNING...THOUGH PRIOR
CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATED THE TRACKING AND
IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NRN OK AND SRN/SERN KS IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EWD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING IN ITS WAKE. A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW JUST N OF I-40 IN OK/ COULD PERSIST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ORIGINAL OUTFLOW TRAILING FROM THE MCV
REMNANTS IN MO WILL LIFT NWD FROM THE RED RIVER AND DISSIPATE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SRN OK.

THE ERN EXTENT OF A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL OVERLAP
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND E OF I-35 IN OK/KS...RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL KS INTO N/NW OK...AND
THEN STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS KS/OK/WRN MO.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE WARM SECTOR AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ESEWD FROM CENTRAL NEB/WRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK.

[westsidesooner]

Updated outlook.

WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW JUST N OF I-40 IN OK/ COULD PERSIST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK.

That part caught my eye. I may have to get the camera ready just in case something pops up this afternoon. OFB appears to be running from about Norman to Mustang at 12:45 and appears to be stalling.

Heres the nws discussion:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH.
A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE LONGER LIVED
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH A REGION OF ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND LOWER CLOUD BASES...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

[venture]

Yeah. If you think back to the Norman tornado, clear example of a storm interactive with the OFB and getting rooted in it. Let it feed off the enhanced shear and you'll get a spin up or some monster hail.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND FAR SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191940Z - 192115Z

PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND FAR SRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH ONE UPPER IMPULSE DIVING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A LEAD WAVE PIVOTS E TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION. THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DISTURBANCE IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH WRN NEB...WHILE A SUBTLE PV STREAMER TRAILS THE MS VALLEY
IMPULSE SW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PV STREAMER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A CIRRUS BAND THAT IS LOCATED FROM WRN TX INTO SW AND CENTRAL
OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM
EARLY CONVECTION LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SERN KS/NERN OK. LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO WRN/NWRN OK...WHILE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F/
IS BUILDING NNE INTO SWRN OK. THE ZONE RESIDING BETWEEN THE STRONGER
HEATING AND COOLER BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION AND LARGEST THETA-E
VALUES...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG AS A PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SPREAD E INTO THE REGION.

FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK/SUBTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PV FEATURE INTERSECTING THE SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...MAY LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. AREA VWP DATA INDICATES THAT SELY SURFACE ALONG AND TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT FROM THE SW IN
THE LOWEST 2 KM/S...AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 40-50 KT IN THE MID
LEVELS. THESE WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLY STRONG /AOA 40 KT/ EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED ALONG AND TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AOA
100 M2 S-2/...ALONG WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.

[venture]

Updated Day 1 - risk area is virtually the same.

...SRN PLAINS...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS N TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATING/MIXING AWAY.
MEANWHILE...BETTER-DEFINED OUTFLOW FROM MORE RECENT ACTIVITY IS
EVIDENT FROM NEAR FSM-MLC-OKC. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AT
SFC FARTHER NW ACROSS NWRN OK...BUT IS VERY EVIDENT IN ANALYSES OF
STREAMLINES...VORTICITY AND CINH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NEWD SLOWLY
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RELATED BOOST TO BUOYANCY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RICH WITH
MOISTURE/VORTICITY/SRH N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS
STG-SVR GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

[venture]

Ww 714 tornado ks ok 192105z - 200400z
axis..70 statute miles north and south of line..
50wsw avk/alva ok/ - 60ese pnc/ponca city ok/ ..aviation coords.. 60nm n/s /20ene gag - 19nw tul/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025.

This does include the Metro from I-40 north.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN
CREEK CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
WOODS WOODWARD

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

WT 0714
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU4.

[venture]

Urgent - immediate broadcast requested
tornado watch number 714
nws storm prediction center norman ok
405 pm cdt wed aug 19 2009

the nws storm prediction center has issued a
tornado watch for portions of

extreme southern kansas
northern and central oklahoma

effective this wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 pm until
1100 pm cdt.

Several tornadoes
scattered damaging winds
isolated wind gusts to 70 mph possible
scattered large hail
isolated hail to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

the tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute
miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of
alva oklahoma to 60 miles east southeast of ponca city oklahoma.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).

Remember...a tornado watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information...continue...ww 713...

Discussion...a residual outflow boundary is beginning to lift slowly
nwd across central/nw ok as the low levels modify on the cool side
of the boundary. Destabilization is reducing convective inhibition
near the intersection of the outflow with a diffuse trough across
ks...and thunderstorm development may occur in the next 1-2 hours in
this area from gag-p28. The mesoscale environment appears favorable
for supercells in terms of instability and deep layer vertical
shear...while low-level shear and moisture will be sufficient for a
few tornadoes with storms near the outflow boundary. Very large
hail will also be possible with any supercells that form...and the
severe threat will spread ewd/esewd into the overnight hours.

Aviation...tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
550. Mean storm motion vector 28025.

[venture]

Current immediate area of concern for storm initiation will be in Woodward and Woods Counties where cumulus is getting pretty agitated right now.

Outflow boundary, where the highest risk for tornadoes will be should storms root themselves into the boundary...current runs from just south of I-40 from AR border to about Shawnee and then NW through OKC to Kingfisher to Fairview to Waynoka to about 15 miles east of Buffalo to the KS line.