March 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

SPC outlining 15% severe risk across E half of OK for Thursday evening.

[Anonymous.]

Severe threat being trimmed to only be across SE OK and into TX. May not see any rain here in OKC from this storm.

[chssooner]

Yep, I'm convinced OKC has somehow upset and offended mother nature, somehow. OKC hopefully has water stores elsewhere, because Hefner is about to be bone dry.

[BG918]

The real hole is the OK Panhandle and SW Kansas - very little rain has fallen over that area going back 10+ months. I know the Arkansas River has been running mostly dry through Tulsa since the end of last summer. Yet the river is full in Ft Smith and Little Rock with minor flooding on some tributaries

The gradient between no drought and extreme drought is only about 60 miles in Tulsa/Osage County..


Possible rain totals end of week - EURO is more bullish on rainfall totals in central OK..
GFS


EURO

[kukblue1]

Oh Hail. There could be some big Hail tomorrow Lawton, Davis, Ada south and east tomorrow (3-16). Metro looks good as of now. Tornadoes possible also but the Hail could be huge.

[Anonymous.]

It's going to be really close for if the storms fire in time to hit OKC. Basically like every storm system so far in 2023, I-44 is the battlefront.

[BG918]

I know the climates are different but I don't remember there being such a stark difference between western and eastern Oklahoma. Maybe the lingering drought is still affecting moisture return?

[kukblue1]

Might be a close call from the metro for some storms from `12-2 tomorrow. Might have some hail. Depends on how fast the cold front comes blasting thru and usually they blast thru much quicker than computer models seem to think. Bigger storms down by Ardmore Thackerville and East.

[kukblue1]

Morning update looks like it's going to be a real close call for the Metro for some halestorm especially if you're just east and Southeast keep an eye out to the sky

[SEMIweather]

Not a fan of that band, so thanks for the heads up

[kukblue1]

Not a fan of that band, so thanks for the heads up

I saw that using my voice to text. Not a fan either lol. Anyway 40% chance of a thunderstorm watch coming out for the Metro. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0290.html

[Pete]

Holy cow, what a monsoon!

Should really help kick-start spring.

[C_M_25]

I’m just on the north side of the rain band so we’re missing most of this. Getting a bit of rain and some thunder which is nice though.

[brunnesa]

Cold front has passed through most of the Metro. Currently, it is just north of Norman. This should reduce the severity of the storms for OKC metro going forward. I am that that front is moving as fast as it is.

[C_M_25]

Just read a scientific article that mentioned our La Niña event is over and it’s highly probable that we’re going to enter an El Niño pattern in 2023. What effect will that have on our weather this year?

[SoonerDave]

Just read a scientific article that mentioned our La Niña event is over and it’s highly probable that we’re going to enter an El Niño pattern in 2023. What effect will that have on our weather this year?

THe former is generally a cooling event, while the latter is generally a warming event. El Nino is also generally associated with a stronger, more southerly jet stream. Stronger jet streams in Oklahoma usually point toward stormier weather in the springtime, but from what I've read, the El Nino pattern is really expected to firm up until mid/late summer into fall.

[chssooner]

May help to avoid months and months of extended drought for OKC and the state, in general.

[jn1780]

THe former is generally a cooling event, while the latter is generally a warming event. El Nino is also generally associated with a stronger, more southerly jet stream. Stronger jet streams in Oklahoma usually point toward stormier weather in the springtime, but from what I've read, the El Nino pattern is really expected to firm up until mid/late summer into fall.

Just being in a neutral state should lead to stormier weather compared to the La Nina state we had been in.

[BG918]

I’m definitely ready for some consistently warmer weather. I know March is often up and down with temperatures and often windy but this month has been unseasonably chilly.

[Anonymous.]

Cold St Paddy weekend on tap for us. Saturday night/Sunday morning lows will be near 20F here in OKC. Will definitely interrupt some foliage cycles.

[C_M_25]

Jeez March sucks this year. Probably going to lose all of my cold weather garden sprouts and will have to start over…which doesn’t go well.

So sick of the cold temps.

[chssooner]

Well, if it keeps the wasps amd mosquitos away a little longer, stay cold and freeze!

[TheTravellers]

Jeez March sucks this year. Probably going to lose all of my cold weather garden sprouts and will have to start over…which doesn’t go well.

So sick of the cold temps.

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...

[runOKC]

Well, if it keeps the wasps amd mosquitos away a little longer, stay cold and freeze!

My thoughts exactly. I have no hard evidence for this but I swear the bugs are worse when we don’t have a freeze early in the spring season.

[Anonymous.]

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...

My thing is the last few years it seems the cold days always fall on weekends. The last spring that I remember with plentiful amazing weekends was the initial covid year. So it was kind of robbed.

I just feel so cheated when we are 70s on a Tuesday Wednesday, then have 40s on the weekend. I guess it is great for people who don't work M-F jobs.