January 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[NikonNurse]

Shocked the TV stations are not wall to wall.

Maybe that was their New Year’s Resolution.

[chssooner]

I have to fly to Houston Thursday afternoon. Will the weather be ok by then?

[kukblue1]

I have to fly to Houston Thursday afternoon. Will the weather be ok by then?

High near 45 on Thursday 42 on Wednesday. This is hardly even going to be a 1 day event.

[Anonymous.]

Here is some of the latest data as of about 3pm Sunday. This does appear to be a significant snowstorm, however temperatures will barely be touching freezing. So melting will heavily diminish accumulations.

We should see winter storm watches going up across the area tonight.

[BG918]

Crazy seeing the effect of the higher elevations in the Ouachita and Boston Mountains. That is not very common but could be a real difference maker with this storm.

[PoliSciGuy]

Man, a tough forecast for schools and other transportation-dependent industries. Seems like tomorrow evening is going to be a mess regardless the exact accumulation amounts

[Anonymous.]

Models are mostly in agreement about storm track, there has been a notable shift north in track over the latest runs from the NAM. The low's track and health of the deformation zone will determine who gets a secondary sweeping wave of heavy snowfall.

As of right now, I would put the Lawton-Norman area with best shot at high snowfall totals.

[BG918]

I think this is overplaying the snowfall due to melting/mixing with rain but a few spots will pick up some decent snow


Regardless of snow I'm liking these moisture totals

[C_M_25]

Now let’s remember folks (before anybody gets butt hurt over how tomorrow turns out) that there is a big difference between snow fall totals and total accumulation. It may snow a bunch but it’s been so warm that, unless you’re under a major snow band, you may not see much accumulating snow.

[Bunty]

So how does the National Weather Service see it? At least it isn't a more serious winter storm warning.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southeast,
southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on the potential of slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Information:
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
In Oklahoma, for the latest road conditions call
8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for the latest road conditions
call 800 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

Counties Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Canadian - Carter - Coal - Cotton - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grant - Harper - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Stephens - Woods - Woodward

[catcherinthewry]

So how does the National Weather Service see it? At least it isn't a more serious winter storm warning.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southeast,
southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on the potential of slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Information:
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
In Oklahoma, for the latest road conditions call
8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for the latest road conditions
call 800 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

Counties Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Canadian - Carter - Coal - Cotton - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grant - Harper - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Stephens - Woods - Woodward

I'm grateful we here in Cleveland county are going to miss this storm. My condolences to everyone in every county surrounding us

[Bunty]

I'm grateful we here in Cleveland county are going to miss this storm. My condolences to everyone in every county surrounding us

I'm sorry, but the full story for all the state was not presented.

Pink counties in WINTER STORM WARNING. Blue counties in Winter Weather Advisory. Green counties, including Tulsa, in winter storm watch:

[BG918]

Winter Storm Warning now issued for the watch counties. Tulsa area upgraded to Winter Storm Watch as the models have moved the heaviest bands further north. This will be a very wet slushy storm which is just what we needed

[Anonymous.]

18Z NAM continues north budge of the storm track.

HRRR maintaining the southern track.

The answer is probably somewhere in between, but precip plume evolution will really show the hand we are dealt by sunrise.

[Bill Robertson]

I'm rooting for HRRR

[BG918]

NAM still going crazy with the snowfall totals. I don't think any of the models know how to accurately forecast this event, it's one of the more dynamic and unique systems we have seen here in a long time. I think we are closer to a 6:1 ratio with only the mountain areas getting closer to 10:1...so cut those amounts in half in the OKC/Tulsa metros

18Z NAM


18Z GFS

[kukblue1]

Measure the snow ever hour probably will get 6-7 inches. Measure it when it's all done you might be 3-4. Even NWS says 3-4 accumulating snow. Per NWS Tuesday Snow. High near 36. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 31. North northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

[kukblue1]

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

[TheTravellers]

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

IIRC, the main reason for closing schools here (we don't have kids, so this is just what I've read somewhere) is that if it's not safe for kids to walk to/from school or the school bus stops, they'll close the schools (that's just one reason I've heard). And with this much snow, kids will not be able to walk safely on sidewalks or in the street, so they're closing schools, or at least that's my take on it.

[kukblue1]

IIRC, the main reason for closing schools here (we don't have kids, so this is just what I've read somewhere) is that if it's not safe for kids to walk to/from school or the school bus stops, they'll close the schools (that's just one reason I've heard). And with this much snow, kids will not be able to walk safely on sidewalks or in the street, so they're closing schools, or at least that's my take on it.

Now that makes a little bit of sense. Lot's of kids down here probably don't have boots and gloves either. Thanks for a sensible answer.

[PoliSciGuy]

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

They're not closed, they're having a virtual day, so not a total loss of learning and you avoid the possibility of the storm overperforming and causing a massive headache (which doesn't look like it'll happen, but still). Makes perfect sense.

[jn1780]

They're not closed, they're having a virtual day, so not a total loss of learning and you avoid the possibility of the storm overperforming and causing a massive headache (which doesn't look like it'll happen, but still). Makes perfect sense.

Which they did for almost an entire year. I'm sure kids hope the whole virtual day trend ends and they get to have snow and ice days again. lol

[C_M_25]

^ Jeez kukblue, who peed in your cornflakes this morning? You have been very combative with the forecasting of this storm. Just take a deep breath and realize this storm is difficult to forecast. Lots of variables in play that decide whether it snows and how much accumulates. IMO, I would rather the schools play it safe just in case and let out early if they’re in the path of this storm. No point in putting kids at risk.

[kukblue1]

^ Jeez kukblue, who peed in your cornflakes this morning? You have been very combative with the forecasting of this storm. Just take a deep breath and realize this storm is difficult to forecast. Lots of variables in play that decide whether it snows and how much accumulates. IMO, I would rather the schools play it safe just in case and let out early if they’re in the path of this storm. No point in putting kids at risk.

should we close for heavy rain storms than. what about storms in the forecast.

[Pete]

Starting to get some snowflakes at my house, although nothing is sticking yet.