October 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

^This will be the only round of storms for OKC. After these pass, it will just be scattered showers and drizzle.

Latest HRRR showing generally around 1" across the OKC area.

[SEMIweather]

Severe threat is quickly diminishing as elevated thunderstorms are currently congealing into clusters while moving into the Metro. Ultimately, it appears that the effective cold front moved too far south of the Metro to support surface-based convection, and a lack of any meaningful convective inhibition allowed for widespread initiation and prevented any of the elevated storms from becoming dominant enough to sustain much of a severe hail threat. Fortunately, it does appear that most of the Metro will still get some nice rainfall totals over the next hour or two, although not as much as what was forecast a couple of days ago. Be on the lookout for localized street flooding during the evening commute.

[Bunty]

Just light rain, no thunder and .04" so far in Stillwater. I'll probably have to water my plants later on unless this thing wants to turn into a long-lasting gentle rain for the night. Tulsa County has a severe thunderstorm warning as of 5:45 pm.

[BG918]

Decent rains across many areas of the state before another dry week with cooler temps. It will really feel like fall next week with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s

[SEMIweather]

A seasonably strong cold front will pass through the Metro this afternoon, bringing gusty north winds and a fairly sharp drop in temperatures. Tomorrow morning will be chilly with lows dropping into the lower 40's. Highs only reach the mid 60's tomorrow, but full sunshine and much lighter winds should result in a beautiful day. Southerly winds return by Sunday and will herald a fairly rapid warm up, with highs getting back into the mid 80's by the middle of next week. Next system should impact the area on Wednesday or Thursday, although best precipitation chances may stay to our north and east. Regardless, looking at another cooldown by next weekend, although it doesn't appear to be too significant. Overall, a fairly standard mid-autumn pattern for the region.

[Pete]

Finally... Hello fall!

[Anonymous.]

Finding things I left in my jacket pockets season!

[BG918]

Warming up again this week into the low 80’s but with low humidity and lots of sunshine. Really nice fall weather to get outside. Humidity increases on Thursday ahead of a front but the best rain/storm chances are in eastern OK and especially into NW Arkansas. Worth watching to see if that shifts west this week.

[SEMIweather]

Windy and dry will be the rule for the next week. Well above normal temperatures and gusty south winds will be the rule for the next three days, but a strong cold front will pass through during the overnight hours on Thursday and usher in a pattern change to well below normal temperatures and gusty north winds for the next several days thereafter. Possible warming trend and a return of precipitation chances as we approach next weekend. It officially feels like mid-autumn in Oklahoma!

[BG918]

GFS models keep Oklahoma entirely dry on Thursday. EURO and CMC are more bullish on storms firing in NE OK. Better chances statewide around 10/19-20 with better moisture return ahead of a cold front. No abnormally cold temps on the horizon for the next two weeks.

[kukblue1]

Guess it's time to turn the sprinklers on again. No rain in the near future

[Anonymous.]

Yes, pretty boring weather-wise around here for a few days. Wed-Thurs will be about the wind. Then it will be about the cold air heading into the weekend.

[kukblue1]

Yes, pretty boring weather-wise around here for a few days. Wed-Thurs will be about the wind. Then it will be about the cold air heading into the weekend.

Hrrr one run tried to fire storms in the Metro than it went away now the Nam st is trying to fire storms in the metro. SMH This is for Thursday evening

[Anonymous.]

^ This morning NAM and HRRR trying their hardest to pop off an isolated showers/storms across C OK.

[LakeEffect]

^ This morning NAM and HRRR trying their hardest to pop off an isolated showers/storms across C OK.

What time are they trying to pop off?

[kukblue1]

What time are they trying to pop off?

One run this morning had it 7pm of the HRRR the Nam was early Friday morning but not going to happen maybe 10% chance.

[Anonymous.]

Earlier this morning SPC removed any chance of C OK getting development. Their latest update here at lunchtime has added it back in, extending to C and S OK. This is for the extreme outside chance that something could get developed this evening. Models have continued to not let go of the possibility.

[MagzOK]

I'd really like some good rain. Our pond needs a refill. I will say I'm completely looking forward the fall-like temperatures however.

[kukblue1]

Congratulations if you got a little bit of rain tonight totally missed me at my house on the west side of town

[BG918]

Very narrow band of rain overnight from central to NE OK where some areas around Tulsa picked up over an inch.

Better rain chances return end of next week after a couple chilly sunny days (mainly because of the gusty north winds)

[BG918]

Well rain chances have gone way down for most areas later this week. Some parts of SE OK and the Red River valley could see storms Thursday into Friday. Possible change to a wetter pattern beginning the last week of October with big rains possible especially in western OK.

Dry start to fall across many areas of the state hopefully things pick up in November. Much better shape this year with our summer rainfall than last year though except for a few areas like north-central OK that are still in severe drought

[BG918]

This will change but models are in agreement that a pattern change begins mid-next week which should bring more rainfall to the southern Plains through the first week of November

[BG918]

Hot weather returns this weekend with highs in the mid-upper 80's, near 90 in some areas. Still dry and windy so fire danger will be elevated especially areas in western OK.

The big pattern change begins on Tuesday 10/24 and continues into Wednesday 10/25 as the remnants of Hurricane Norma move northward. Then a better chance of widespread storms and heavy rain on Thursday 10/26. Then another storm moves in the following Monday 10/30 - at this time Halloween looks to be clear and cool with high temps in the 50's

[BG918]

The clouds moving over Oklahoma today are from Hurricane Norma currently hitting Cabo. That storm will be a rain maker across the state later this week

[Anonymous.]

Here it comes. Hurricane remnants + upper-level storm system sweeping across. Should be taking a direct path over OK.