Wall Street Journal Ranks OKC the fifth-hottest US Job Market

[Rover]

Japan has a stagnant and aging population which is much of why their economy is stagnant.

People focus on one or two things and blame the problems on that rather than fully understanding how all the factors influence each other. Mal-informed and uneducated (on economics) politicians tend to do the same. Aging populations, birth rates, immigration policies, money supply, savings rates, gdp growth, efficiency, r&d investment, tax policies, etc, etc, etc all are significant factors. It is fruitless to blame one without acknowledging the full effect of the other factors and their interdependencies. It is a complex issue that many skew to try to prove out their pet peeve or political bias.

[traxx]

We might kick the can down the road several more years

How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

[Dob Hooligan]

How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

This is not a snarky reply...I think I first heard "How much further can we kick the can down the road" in regards to the economy, debt and tax structure in the early 1990s. Might have been after the Reagan tax cuts in the mid-1980s.

I'm guessing a looooooong time.

[Rover]

This is not a snarky reply...I think I first heard "How much further can we kick the can down the road" in regards to the economy, debt and tax structure in the early 1990s. Might have been after the Reagan tax cuts in the mid-1980s.

I'm guessing a looooooong time.

Yes, it's a phrase that shows there is no one that can tell you how much of a problem it really is. Theoretically, you can kick a can down the road forever. It will never be fully resolved.

[OKCRealtor]

How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

No idea but I would guess it's a major issue in 5-10 years. Yellen said last week the debt load is '"manageable" lol.

More than likely this is our economic reality the next 4 years (I'm presuming Dems win & stay in power) but even if they don't I'm not sure anything changes. I think it could be a major issue the next election cycle as we'll be starting down closer to a $50 trillion deficit by then.

[Rover]

No idea but I would guess it's a major issue in 5-10 years. Yellen said last week the debt load is '"manageable" lol.

More than likely this is our economic reality the next 4 years (I'm presuming Dems win & stay in power) but even if they don't I'm not sure anything changes. I think it could be a major issue the next election cycle as we'll be starting down closer to a $50 trillion deficit by then.

You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

[mugofbeer]

You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

When did political comments become allowable again?

[Rover]

When did political comments become allowable again?

Just responding to previous post.

[CaptDave]

Just responding to previous post.

...with an accurate economic policy summary that is certainly applicable to the topic at hand.

[soonergolfer]

You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

You seem to conveniently omit the most important part of the equation for the cause of rapidly growing debt, which is spending. The interest payment on current debt for this year is about $1 trillion. That yearly interest payment will grow exponentially as old notes are paid off at low interest rates, then reissued at a higher rate. Collecting a few 100 billion more from corporations and wealthy people is a drop in the bucket without seriously cutting spending.

[OKCRealtor]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s/74211526007/

The CBO last week just raised its estimate for the government deficit this year by an astounding 27% - 408 billion higher just over the February forecast for a 1.9 trillion deficit this year. At a time when we can least afford the government is lighting money on fire keeping inflation burning hot and raising the real rates for us all for years to come with apparently zero regard.

[TheTravellers]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s/74211526007/

The CBO last week just raised its estimate for the government deficit this year by an astounding 27% - 408 billion higher just over the February forecast for a 1.9 trillion deficit this year. At a time when we can least afford the government is lighting money on fire keeping inflation burning hot and raising the real rates for us all for years to come with apparently zero regard.

Inflation's down from a year ago, very much:

"Inflation and the economy are still the biggest issues on many voters’ minds heading into the 2024 election, even though inflation has come down from its dizzying height in June 2022, when prices were climbing at almost 9 percent. Last month, it was a much more manageable 3.3 percent. "

https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/35...interest-rates

[OKCRealtor]

Inflation's down from a year ago, very much:

"Inflation and the economy are still the biggest issues on many voters’ minds heading into the 2024 election, even though inflation has come down from its dizzying height in June 2022, when prices were climbing at almost 9 percent. Last month, it was a much more manageable 3.3 percent. "

https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/35...interest-rates

Real inflation is probably actually higher than it was a year ago when home prices & borrowing costs are taken into account. Neither are factored into CPI data but have a huge effect on real inflation.

[bison34]

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

[BoulderSooner]

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

if you bought a house with a ARM during the lowest fixed rates of all time (to save pennies on the dollar) you deserve what you get ..

[OKCRealtor]

Yea I don't think there were many ARM's during the pandemic other than commercial which is about to go bust. They make more sense now but even still the % is very low.

Commerical really not even an ARM but a balloon note essentially same effect.

[Rover]

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

I doubt very many took ARMs when a historically low rate was available. So tell us what % of people actually did this. This isn’t going to be any problem.

[bison34]

I doubt very many took ARMs when a historically low rate was available. So tell us what % of people actually did this. This isn’t going to be any problem.

Not sure why you take everything so personally. I know of quite a few. They were thinking rates would increase gradually, and would be able to budget their savings early on to cover later interest increases. They thought 1.5% to 2.5% increases. Not 5% to 6% increases.

Many regional banks in OKC I audit are having to work with borrowers on mitigation plans to help smooth out the increases, but they are increasing their CECL loss rates because of it. 2025 will see quite a few foreclosures.

[Rover]

Not sure why you take everything so personally. I know of quite a few. They were thinking rates would increase gradually, and would be able to budget their savings early on to cover later interest increases. They thought 1.5% to 2.5% increases. Not 5% to 6% increases.

Many regional banks in OKC I audit are having to work with borrowers on mitigation plans to help smooth out the increases, but they are increasing their CECL loss rates because of it. 2025 will see quite a few foreclosures.

Just trying to understand what percentage of borrowers would be dumb enough to NOT lock in historically low rates for a long term loan. ARMs are to hedge down, not up. Did the banks make them take ARMs as a condition for loan approval? What exactly was the incentive to float UP? Why?

[BoulderSooner]

Just trying to understand what percentage of borrowers would be dumb enough to NOT lock in historically low rates for a long term loan. ARMs are to hedge down, not up. Did the banks make them take ARMs as a condition for loan approval? What exactly was the incentive to float UP? Why?

exactly this ...

the the bottom when fixed were below 3 ... ARM was what 2.5 on a 500k house they were saving what under a 100 bucks a month ... ...lol yeah they deserve what they get ..