Will Autonomous Cars Kill Mass Transit?

[bluedogok]

I have absolutely no interest in them, but then I am a "car guy" and prefer to be in control of my vehicle. I can definitely see how that type of car would be better than many of the so-called "drivers" currently would be.

[Just the facts]

I have been hit by two cars while riding my bike. In both incidents the drivers didn't have enough time to react and avoid me, but both times they stopped and helped me. Is an autonomous car going to stop and help me? Will it even know it hit me or would I have been chalked up to a bump in the road?

In Oklahoma?

No, both times were in California.

[C_M_25]

I like this idea of an autonomous cars by google. However, I have to disagree on where some of you are taking this idea. This is just my opinion, but I would never want to give up my personal vehicle. Having to rely on a system/technology to get me where I want to be bothers me. I love my independence that comes with owning a vehicle. Now, if we can set up vehicles that can switch between automatic and manual driving (computer vs human), that would be the ultimate solution in my mind. I would like it if we could switch to automatic driving for the highway and we can control our vehicle for city streets or something. That would help tremendously with commute times and efficiency. Then, if you could add in a "smart" traffic light system for city streets on top of that, I think our commutes would be tremendously better.

I just personally do not like the idea of giving up my personal vehicle.

[Dubya61]

I like this idea of an autonomous cars by google. However, I have to disagree on where some of you are taking this idea. This is just my opinion, but I would never want to give up my personal vehicle. Having to rely on a system/technology to get me where I want to be bothers me. I love my independence that comes with owning a vehicle. Now, if we can set up vehicles that can switch between automatic and manual driving (computer vs human), that would be the ultimate solution in my mind. I would like it if we could switch to automatic driving for the highway and we can control our vehicle for city streets or something. That would help tremendously with commute times and efficiency. Then, if you could add in a "smart" traffic light system for city streets on top of that, I think our commutes would be tremendously better.

I just personally do not like the idea of giving up my personal vehicle.

I get you, but just because you have a car doesn't mean that you have to use it. In my little McWorld, I would like to have a bike, econo-commuter car, family car, and a work truck. I see a need for all of them, but that doesn't mean that I wouldn't love to use an on-demand autonomous car for transit some -- maybe even a lot. It's just a matter of having the right tool at my disposal. I'll bet that, in my little McWorld (hey, it could happen), I would eventually not want the two cars, but I wouldn't want to do without them tomorrow. What if I could demand an autonomous family car on demand, too? What if there were a truck-share or tractor-share program near to my land. Then I might not "need" any of them.

[Dubya61]

Herman Cain's "Job Creators Network" has a somewhat conservative take on the driverless car making mass transit obsolete.
Google?s RoboCar: The Meteor that Could Wipe Out Mass Transit | Job Creators NetworkJob Creators Network

[Just the facts]

Well, unless these autonomous cars run on lollipop wishes we aren't going to be able to afford to have the drive themselves because we can't keep funding the US military at the rate we have been. I wish my fellow Tea Party friends would wake the hell up and realize the ‘private automobile’ is one of the largest expenses of the federal government.

[OKCisOK4me]

First time I've seen this thread...I like, I like.

First thought that comes to mind. It won't work until everything is 100% autonomous from coast to coast. Either that or you build the infrastructure in sections and then they say, "autonomous cars can only operate in these sections".

Secondly, if converting only certain sections over one at a time or in regions and expanding outward to connect all sections, the first autonomous cars would cost more than any car on the market right now. I only say this because that car is going to have to have a supercomputer on it that has a base CPU of so many teraflops to handle the operations of making accurate calculations to avoid other autonomous cars and other non autonomous objects (kids, wildlife, pets lost on roads, etc.) and all that sensory equipment placed on every angle of these cars is going to cost a lot of money.

Thirdly, if this thing is going to be operated by a network, then it is going to have to be super hacker protected cause this would be a major terrorist target.

I don't think it would kill rail because there will be people that couldn't afford the autonomous car and they would choose to use other mass transport options like rail and bus.

I honestly think an 'I, Robot' transportation world is still 100+ years in the future. I remember when I was a Boy Scout and Boys Life magazine had an issue where the cover of it had a futuristic autonomous car. At least they were able to dream in the 1980s.

[Mel]

The autonomous A.I. will have to advance a bit more. Right now its hard to beat a healthy, trained human mind. At least for reaction time and options sorting ability. It will probably be awhile.

[Snowman]

First time I've seen this thread...I like, I like.

First thought that comes to mind. It won't work until everything is 100% autonomous from coast to coast. Either that or you build the infrastructure in sections and then they say, "autonomous cars can only operate in these sections".

Secondly, if converting only certain sections over one at a time or in regions and expanding outward to connect all sections, the first autonomous cars would cost more than any car on the market right now. I only say this because that car is going to have to have a supercomputer on it that has a base CPU of so many teraflops to handle the operations of making accurate calculations to avoid other autonomous cars and other non autonomous objects (kids, wildlife, pets lost on roads, etc.) and all that sensory equipment placed on every angle of these cars is going to cost a lot of money.

Thirdly, if this thing is going to be operated by a network, then it is going to have to be super hacker protected cause this would be a major terrorist target.

I don't think it would kill rail because there will be people that couldn't afford the autonomous car and they would choose to use other mass transport options like rail and bus.

I honestly think an 'I, Robot' transportation world is still 100+ years in the future. I remember when I was a Boy Scout and Boys Life magazine had an issue where the cover of it had a futuristic autonomous car. At least they were able to dream in the 1980s.

A group I heard about was working on it in the 90's indicated that it will likely be in phases like first the interstates and sections of other highways where there are more limits to what should be there, is pretty standardized across the country and takes less time to affect large numbers of people. With city streets likely being the last thing to happen, possibly many years after the others.

Some standard methods will eventually need to be chosen, there have been several methods done by various groups from using strong permanent magnets in the street like the white dotted lines for precision guidance to pure camera systems that just read existing lane markers. Several already work pretty well with less computer power than an average PC, granted some of those were using closed courses. In the end, I doubt computer power is as much of an issue as getting all the questions about legal liabilities settled.

One thing that DOTs have been interested in is how they can communicate with each other to give advance warning of needs to slow or stop to pair with them already having better reaction time than humans to give lanes that are totally automated a much higher volume per lane than humans could drive. Which has the downside if that ever completely messed then best case you then will have a road that will likely be nowhere close to the capacity it would have after a several years of use and at worst a risk of a massive pile up.

The autonomous A.I. will have to advance a bit more. Right now its hard to beat a healthy, trained human mind. At least for reaction time and options sorting ability. It will probably be awhile.

Unfortunately I have some doubts on autonomous AI being behind a lot of the driver I see on the road, it is hard to drive more than few miles consecutively anywhere with traffic before you find someone driving distracted, impaired, tailgating, failing to yield, bizarrely slow reactions to any intersection/turn/time to accelerate, etc.