OU Football 2024 Season

[aDark]

^

And the odds makers only set the initial line; people actually putting their own money down is what determines the spreads.

This is coming from the guy who disagrees with sports betting, entirely

[Pete]

This is coming from the guy who disagrees with sports betting, entirely

I don't disagree with it entirely. I don't see how legalizing it in Oklahoma will help our state.

[citywokchinesefood]

I don't disagree with it entirely. I don't see how legalizing it in Oklahoma will help our state.

It is very easy to do already even though it is illegal. The state might as well capture the tax revenue.

[traxx]

Slight adjustment-The main purpose of the points spread is to get half the betting money on each side of the spread. Books get wiped out when either side is loaded with money.

Yes. Good point.

[aDark]

I don't disagree with it entirely. I don't see how legalizing it in Oklahoma will help our state.

I'm just ribbing you from that old fantasy football discussion. As Kendrick Perkins would say, "carry on..."

[April in the Plaza]

I feel like the new game, College Football 25, is really selling OU short. They are going to be tough AF this year from what I can tell. Got a bunch of studs on defense and a lot of guys who can dance pretty good, from what I see on TikTok.

[Bill Robertson]

Slight adjustment-The main purpose of the points spread is to get half the betting money on each side of the spread. Books get wiped out when either side is loaded with money.

True. But in order to do this the experts that set the spread/favorite try to be as accurate as possible. That gets both sides to bet. Therefore the initial spread should be a fairly accurate prediction of the outcome. Except of course that games go completely haywire as they get played.

[Dob Hooligan]

True. But in order to do this the experts that set the spread/favorite try to be as accurate as possible. That gets both sides to bet. Therefore the initial spread should be a fairly accurate prediction of the outcome. Except of course that games go completely haywire as they get played.

Never forget…the purpose of the line is to get 50% of the betting money on either side of the handle. Sometimes they have to load the spread one way or the other to even out the money. The classic example is the Super Bowl III line that was set by Jimmy The Greek that had the Colts a 17 points favorite. Had to make it that big to even out the money.

[PhiAlpha]

I feel like the new game, College Football 25, is really selling OU short. They are going to be tough AF this year from what I can tell. Got a bunch of studs on defense and a lot of guys who can dance pretty good, from what I see on TikTok.

Defense should be stout everywhere but up front where they should still be pretty good.

Offense is a pretty big question mark. If Arnold and the line pan out, they could be very good but time will tell.

[citywokchinesefood]

Defense should be stout everywhere but up front where they should still be pretty good.

Offense is a pretty big question mark. If Arnold and the line pan out, they could be very good but time will tell.

The schedule for OU in their inaugural SEC season is one of the toughest in all of college football. If they all click this year and kill it, they are 100% going to the playoffs and will absolutely set the tone as a major player in the SEC. Like many have said their defense will absolutely be a force the only question is how ready the offense is to compete at a high level.

[traxx]

True. But in order to do this the experts that set the spread/favorite try to be as accurate as possible. That gets both sides to bet. Therefore the initial spread should be a fairly accurate prediction of the outcome. Except of course that games go completely haywire as they get played.

No, they're predicting what the betting public will do, not the outcome of the game.

[traxx]

I feel like the new game, College Football 25, is really selling OU short. They are going to be tough AF this year from what I can tell. Got a bunch of studs on defense and a lot of guys who can dance pretty good, from what I see on TikTok.

The programmers obviously didn't think much of our D. On the RTG there was a lot of simulations in the freshman year and our opponents (even tulane) put up a lot of points.

[Bill Robertson]

No, they're predicting what the betting public will do, not the outcome of the game.

I know that. But the betting public isn't likely to bet as much, or they'll place bets that quickly change the line, if the initial line is way off from what should actually happen.

[traxx]

I know that. But the betting public isn't likely to bet as much, or they'll place bets that quickly change the line, if the initial line is way off from what should actually happen.

I'm here to tell ya, the line setters and the oddsmakers have nothing to do with the outcome of the game. To say otherwise is to sound like Jim Traber.

[Bill Robertson]

I'm here to tell ya, the line setters and the oddsmakers have nothing to do with the outcome of the game. To say otherwise is to sound like Jim Traber.

Of course they have nothing to do with the outcome. Never said that. But to get maximum betting from both sides it's best if they set the spread close to what should happen in the game.

For instance. Two really closely matched FB teams meet. Position by position they match up equally. The spread is going to be pick-em to probably the home team favored by a couple points. That's going to make betters on both sides believe their side can be a winning bet. The setters are never going to set the spread 8 or 9 points for such game.

If two FB teams are both 5-0 against the same common opponents but one team has won by an average of 21 points and the other has squeaked by an average 3 points the spread for that game won't be 2 or 3 points. That won't get both sides betting. It will be somewhere between the 3 and 21 points depending on who's home and any matchup differences, etc.

[Bill Robertson]

And here's 2 quotes and a picture taken from COVERS.com illustrating my take on setting the initial line.

Quotes:
Sam Russell, BetSperts. Com
“A betting line is a number set by oddsmakers to represent the expected outcome of a particular event”.
Christopher Feery, LegalSportsReport.com
“Oddsmakers set betting lines based on their expectations of what will happen in a sporting event”.

[traxx]

Of course they have nothing to do with the outcome. Never said that. But to get maximum betting from both sides it's best if they set the spread close to what should happen in the game.

For instance. Two really closely matched FB teams meet. Position by position they match up equally. The spread is going to be pick-em to probably the home team favored by a couple points. That's going to make betters on both sides believe their side can be a winning bet. The setters are never going to set the spread 8 or 9 points for such game.

If two FB teams are both 5-0 against the same common opponents but one team has won by an average of 21 points and the other has squeaked by an average 3 points the spread for that game won't be 2 or 3 points. That won't get both sides betting. It will be somewhere between the 3 and 21 points depending on who's home and any matchup differences, etc.

I don't recall what the point spread was for OU/Texas 2003, but I can guarantee you OU wasn't giving anywhere near 52 points.

They predict what they think the betting public will do and then move the line accordingly. They do not care about predicting the outcome of the game.

[traxx]

And here's 2 quotes and a picture taken from COVERS.com illustrating my take on setting the initial line.

Quotes:
Sam Russell, BetSperts. Com
“A betting line is a number set by oddsmakers to represent the expected outcome of a particular event”.
Christopher Feery, LegalSportsReport.com
“Oddsmakers set betting lines based on their expectations of what will happen in a sporting event”.

Your first quote proves my point. It's to represent the expected outcome. In other words, what the betting public expects to happen. No one expected OU to win 65-13 in 2003.

[Bill Robertson]

Your first quote proves my point. It's to represent the expected outcome. In other words, what the betting public expects to happen. No one expected OU to win 65-13 in 2003.

The bold has been my point the whole discussion. The closer they get to that number the more betting they'll get on both sides.
The 2003 OU-UT game is a great example of everybody missing the expected outcome. It happens. But all that shows is that the spreads can be off. Way off. As a side note lots of us that bet on OU and the points that day won!

[traxx]

The bold has been my point the whole discussion. The closer they get to that number the more betting they'll get on both sides.
The 2003 OU-UT game is a great example of everybody missing the expected outcome. It happens. But all that shows is that the spreads can be off. Way off. As a side note lots of us that bet on OU and the points that day won!

Yes, they can be way off which was my original point; they don't care about predicting the actual outcome of the game. They care about what the bettors will do.

They could've set the 2003 OU/TX line at 52. And they would've been correct. But they would've gotten a lot fewer bettors and the ones who did bet would've put the money all on one side. But they would've gotten it right.

[Bill Robertson]

Yes, they can be way off which was my original point; they don't care about predicting the actual outcome of the game. They care about what the bettors will do.

They could've set the 2003 OU/TX line at 52. And they would've been correct. But they would've gotten a lot fewer bettors and the ones who did bet would've put the money all on one side. But they would've gotten it right.

You're making the same point that I am.

[traxx]

You're making the same point that I am.

I think it's the other way around. My point has always been that they don't care to predict the actual outcome. Glad to see you finally came over to my side.

[Bill Robertson]

I think it's the other way around. My point has always been that they don't care to predict the actual outcome. Glad to see you finally came over to my side.

I haven't come around to anything. They try to predict the point difference as closely as possible in order to get both sides to bet. I never said anything otherwise. If I did please show me where. It must have been late at night and I'd had a couple cold beers.

[traxx]

They try to predict the point difference as closely as possible in order to get both sides to bet.

Oh, I guess that's why they got so close on that 2003 OU/Tx score.

[Bill Robertson]

Oh, I guess that's why they got so close on that 2003 OU/Tx score.

That outcome has absolutely nothing to do with anything. Except to say nothing predicted before hand is perfect. That's why gambling is called gambling.
And if I remember right the spread on that game was something like OU +7. On paper that's what the game should have played out. But sports is sports and odd things happen. And why a bunch of us OU fans made money that day and a bunch of UT fans lost.