March 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Is OKC even in a drought?

Not technically, but on extremely short windows - the ground here dries out insanely fast with warmer temps + high winds. This is why high fire danger can be present just days after a rainfall here.

Storms not looking likely here in C OK, however, technically can't be ruled out until the dryline has passed.

[BoulderSooner]

Is OKC even in a drought?

data from 5 March (released 7 March)

none of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry .. much less in a drought ..

as far as the state only 3.85 % in a drought and only .19 in severe drought (nothing worse)

1 year ago 60% of the state was in drought 53% severe or worse 36% Extreme and 9% Exceptional Drought

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Curre...onitor.aspx?OK

[C_M_25]

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Man, take a deep breath. It’s going to be alright. We’ve had an amazingly wet winter, so we’re not even close to hurting for water. The lakes are full in the region, the ground is moist, and things are greening up nicely.

Also, it shouldn’t be the least bit surprising that the SE part of the state gets the most rain. It’s the wettest part of the state. Naturally, okc is on the boundary of dry prairie and wet greenlands. We’re going to miss out on storms more often than the SE.

[BG918]

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Remember this can, and will, change but the models have been consistent in indicating a significant pattern change toward the end of March that would bring more rainfall to the S Plains. GFS rainfall totals through the end of March:

[Bunty]

LOL, channel 4 news starts off sensationalizing the weather by showing storms on radar in the Tulsa viewing area.

[kukblue1]

Could be a very bad day for Eastern Oklahoma. Anything Shawnee east.

[Anonymous.]

Pretty strong parameters on that TOR watch. Many areas of rotation in the current line.

[BG918]

Couple rain chances through the weekend hopefully this verifies for western OK

[kukblue1]

IF BIG IF HUGE IF on a Tuesday Night. But if we can get moisture return on Sunday Sunday night could get interesting for severe storms

[mugofbeer]

Closed off low in AZ is now moving slowly east towards OK.

[Anonymous.]

Here is latest HRRR for the next few days. As you can see, rain/storm chances will be very random. Thursday morning is probably OKC's best shot.

[kukblue1]

Slight Risk for Sunday for Western Oklahoma. Big concern will probably be a squall line with heavy rain gusty winds possible small hail.

[okatty]

There is some incredible lightening in far NW OKC. Very impressive!! Sounds like spring!

[kukblue1]

It's only Thursday but I see you Sunday I see you trying to bring in more moisture. A strong low pressure system. Dryline trying to set up in Western Oklahoma I see you Sunday.

[The]

It's only Thursday but I see you Sunday I see you trying to bring in more moisture. A strong low pressure system. Dryline trying to set up in Western Oklahoma I see you Sunday.

Are you well?

[kukblue1]

Are you well?

I'm ok thanks for asking . I'm actually shocked the OKC TV METS haven't jumped on a hype train yet. News 9 this morning was calling it a moderate risk so maybe they have and I just missed it on other channels but Sunday could be a big day.

[Anonymous.]

We will find out more tomorrow with the day 3 from SPC. But I think they have it right for now. W OK in a narrow corridor where it may reach close to 80F, everything E of that could be relatively cool on the temperature side. Any storms surviving off the dryline will be heading into an environment that is poor for sustainability.

As always, things will change - but I think C OK is not under the gun at this time.

[Anonymous.]

SPC outlining Slight Risk for Sunday for essentially all of W and C OK. Noting basically what I posted last night above. W OK dryline initial threat for supercells, quickly moving to a cluster/line of storms that weakens as it pushes east.

Forecast right now is for C OK to be around 68F with dewpoints in the low 50s. If these two parameters increase, the threat for severe storms will follow.

[kukblue1]

Friday Morning and it's battle of the computer models. Some say moisture is lacking some say it's better. We probably only need to get into the mid 50s cause of the forcing. Strong enough system that can get it done with dewpoints 56 and up. Stay tuned. Channel 5 is up to a 4 on the tornado index.

[C_M_25]

Friday Morning and it's battle of the computer models. Some say moisture is lacking some say it's better. We probably only need to get into the mid 50s cause of the forcing. Strong enough system that can get it done with dewpoints 56 and up. Stay tuned. Channel 5 is up to a 4 on the tornado index.

There is very little about Sunday that looks interesting atm. Dewpoints barely in the 60’s. High temps barely hit 70? Doesn’t really check the boxes for me. Probably should cool it down a notch.

[kukblue1]

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status...Rh0Hiobwg&s=19.

[kukblue1]

There is very little about Sunday that looks interesting atm. Dewpoints barely in the 60’s. High temps barely hit 70? Doesn’t really check the boxes for me. Probably should cool it down a notch.

Normally I would agree with you on dew points but mid 50s will get it done with this strong of forcing and jet stream. At least for a decent squall line moving through Central Oklahoma.

[kukblue1]

Saturday morning update : By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to
strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central
KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z
Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may
encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid
50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will
also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat
for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given
the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could
still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to
become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern
KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty
winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into
small bowing line segments

[C_M_25]

HRRR indicating the cap holds tomorrow. It’s just too cool out there. Will be interesting to watch how warm it gets.

Also doesn’t help that it looks like the morning rain wipes out much of the instability and likely keeping it cooler for longer in the day with cloud cover.

[C_M_25]

Looking like a pretty typical conditional day for springtime around here. If we get prolonged morning showers with cloud cover, we probably won’t see anything in the afternoon. If we see good clearing by lunch and temps warm into the upper 60’s, it’s possible a few storms could break the cap.