May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[NikonNurse]

It just died…like poof! Within a 5 mile push! ����*♀️

[kukblue1]

Monday could be BIG. I say could be. Even the NWS said "The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and
north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent
will tend to remain across the central Plains."

That all being said it only takes one or two storms to do a lot of damage. Stay weather aware. We should know a lot more tonight/tomorrow morning when the short range models come into play.

[kukblue1]

Day to moderate risk out for most of Western Oklahoma. How strong will the cap be? Are we looking at outbreak or we looking at just one or two storms? I'm leaning towards only a few storms right now as of Sunday morning however it only takes one storm look at what happened down in Sulphur

[SoonerDave]

I have to admit the forecast plus ENH risk confuses me some, and I'm sure it's due to my own ignorance . To me, the forecast text still suggests the better severe environment is in NC Kansas, but then says something to the effect of if supercells form, they have a greater chance of being *more* intense or possibly tornadic - with that risk increasing into E. OK into the evening?

As I said, the forecast seems to say two things that aren't *entirely* contradictory, but perhaps arguably "hedging" even amid the ENH risk area, which is in *Western* OK. If Anon or Semi or whomever could clarify or smooth out that language it might be helpful.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah the threat here in Oklahoma is more conditional. *If* storms can break the cap then they will be in some very high end parameter space and can do some really nasty things. Also, the window of possible activity goes from 2pm to 2am, so it could be similar to last Saturday where the daytime feels like a bust but the nocturnal threat kicks off thanks to the LLJ.

[kukblue1]

Sunday morning runs of models favor a Stillwater North all of Kansas event. Some keep no storms in the metro and blows them up after dark east of 35. We shall see these systems usually have a tendency to slow down some.

[Elrenogolf]

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

[SoonerDave]

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

Mike Moron is a public menace.

[SEMIweather]

Tomorrow's parameters are obviously concerning if something is able to initiate W/SW of the Metro, which is a solution that the short-range models are increasingly latching onto as a possibility. At this time, I would say it is more likely than not that we will at least get a couple of supercells developing along the dryline in Western OK.

Here's a much more detailed breakdown on another forum from someone whom I trust a lot: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/...omment-7294551

[kukblue1]

Is this what weather twitter would of been like May 3 1999? It's going absolutely crazy.

[SoonerDave]

The HRRR is now showing *no* OK development through the 13Z run, but I recall the SPC saying the hat would be about the time parameters would be more conducive to development. Another model shows cell development in N. Central OK heading NE to Kansas around midday.
.

[PoliSciGuy]

The HRRR is now showing *no* OK development through the 13Z run, but I recall the SPC saying the hat would be about the time parameters would be more conducive to development. Another model shows cell development in N. Central OK heading NE to Kansas around midday.
.

HRRR also missed on 4/27 iirc by not firing much in OK, yet we ended up with the nocturnal outbreak.

[SoonerDave]

HRRR also missed on 4/27 iirc by not firing much in OK, yet we ended up with the nocturnal outbreak.

But as I pointed out, the run I mention ends before the prime conditions are in place, especially the LLJ. So things just continue to bear observation.

[PhiAlpha]

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

Doomsday Mike is already rounding into mid-season form.

[PoliSciGuy]

To (very, very reluctantly) give Mike some credit, nocturnal long-track, violent tornadoes are indeed "over the top dangerous."

SPC folks are doing a good job of walking the line of expressing concern/informing the public:

https://x.com/ounwcm/status/1787270961114279965

[SEMIweather]

As they so often do, NWS Norman has been messaging this exactly right, IMO. We are so fortunate to have them looking out for us.

[PoliSciGuy]

00z HRRR run looks dangerous between Stillwater and Wichita, and then fires discrete cells in C OK around midnight tomorrow. Could see the SPC going high risk by morning.

[kukblue1]

00z HRRR run looks dangerous between Stillwater and Wichita, and then fires discrete cells in C OK around midnight tomorrow. Could see the SPC going high risk by morning.

I saw that too. I hope those are not warm sectors storm well ahead of the dryline. That would be very bad.

[SEMIweather]

SPC considered going with a High Risk right off the bat, but ultimately decided on a Moderate Risk with the potential for a later upgrade. Additional outlooks should come out at around 8:00a, 11:30a, 3:00p, and 8:00p

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...Oklahoma into southern Kansas...
Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon.
Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central
Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated
storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma
as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline
circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the
evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma.
Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will
favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front
overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be
strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when
coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary.

Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete
storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern
Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly
support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early
evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an
intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into
the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx
of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for
intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast
Oklahoma.

This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High
Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with
regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An
increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should
confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.

[jn1780]

Seems like there could be a high risk upgrade from south central Kansas to OKC. The moderate risk from OKC to Red River would be highly conditional based on storms breaking through the cap

[SEMIweather]

Seems like there could be a high risk upgrade from south central Kansas to OKC. The moderate risk from OKC to Red River would be highly conditional based on storms breaking through the cap

You are pretty much dead-on, High Risk upgrade coming for much of the Metro at 8:00.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html

[Anonymous.]

Today will be the first High Risk outline issued in over a year. And the first one in Oklahoma specifically in almost 5 years.

[jn1780]

You are pretty much dead-on, High Risk upgrade coming for much of the Metro at 8:00.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html

I think that translates to a Super Mega Extreme risk in our local media market. Let's hope for a cap bust for at least the southern sides of that high risk.

Side note: kind of interesting they issued a mesoscale discussion for that when they could have waited for next outlook.

[BG918]

The cap is still strong and will require enough daytime heating to break it. If the sun comes out from OKC north and you get temps up past 80 all of the other ingredients are there. The LLJ tonight will keep any storms that form going further into NE OK

[SoonerDave]

The cap is still strong and will require enough daytime heating to break it. If the sun comes out from OKC north and you get temps up past 80 all of the other ingredients are there. The LLJ tonight will keep any storms that form going further into NE OK

Others more learned than I might disagree, but it seems to me the forcing is so great that it will overcome any cap. That is, the cap may be strong, but the convection is *stronger*. An the mid-level shear is so high that if a storm goes up, it will almost certainly spin (mesoscale rotation) as it ascends

EDIT: qualifier - some of the SPC discussion indicates the forcing generally seems to decrease as you go farther into SW OK. The discussion associated with the high-risk forecast tends to emphasize the I-40 corridor going north but cautions the overall parameters are still very favorable for rotating storms.