General Weather Discussion - April 2019

[C_M_25]

Warm, No Storms Wednesday, a Freeze, and then Snow? by Aaron Tuttle
http://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/0...SjniAr1Ec0xxMY

He mentions the lack of moisture from the gulf so far several times in that article. It seems like that was an issue last spring as well. In fact, I wonder if this is part of a bigger shift in our weather patterns. We’ll see what May brings though. That is our most active time, but it has been a little frustrating that winter won’t turn loose of its grip around here. It has pretty big impacts on crops and the economies of the rural areas of our state.

[John1744]

He mentions the lack of moisture from the gulf so far several times in that article. It seems like that was an issue last spring as well. In fact, I wonder if this is part of a bigger shift in our weather patterns. We’ll see what May brings though. That is our most active time, but it has been a little frustrating that winter won’t turn loose of its grip around here. It has pretty big impacts on crops and the economies of the rural areas of our state.

I know so little about meterology but it does seem to me that the wet area this time of year has been shifting further east over the last decade or two. But that may just be me. I sure haven't seen any mets bring it up or anything. But it seems the frequent storms of my child hood tend to happen more over Arkansas and Alabama lately.

[mugofbeer]

Funny he didn't mention the low that just crossed Texas and is now pushing into the SE kind of messing up the gulf pipeline. Just not enough time to get it going again before the next storm comes in.

[jn1780]

Moisture recovery from the Gulf is always an issue this time of year. Just more of an issue these past few years it seems like. One of the reasons that May is more active is because the Gulf recharges faster after a cold front gets that far down south. This year is looking like more of the same where if we do get active weather it will be mid to late May.

[BG918]

I know so little about meterology but it does seem to me that the wet area this time of year has been shifting further east over the last decade or two. But that may just be me. I sure haven't seen any mets bring it up or anything. But it seems the frequent storms of my child hood tend to happen more over Arkansas and Alabama lately.

There is a lot of evidence that the edge of the Plains is moving further east toward the 99th Meridian. Here is an interesting article: https://www.earthmagazine.org/articl...100th-meridian

[bchris02]

So does the next week or so look to be the last hurrah for winter this year?

[Bobby821]

Looks like Severe weather may be in store for next Tuesday 4-16/Wednesday 4-17 time frame. All modes appear possible at this time.

[Anonymous.]

Extreme fire danger across the western half of the state today. Strong southerly winds will shift to come out of the W/NW overnight, rushing in cooler air. Thursday will be breezy with highs in the 50s. Friday will be nice with highs in the 60s and light winds. This is ahead of the next storm which will pretty much ruin Saturday outdoor time for the entire state. Rain will move in from the SW with temperatures in the 40s for majority of the state. Could see some heavy wet snow mix in in areas in W and NW OK.

After this weekend, we rebound back into Spring with nice weather. Next storm impact showing up around Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

[Anonymous.]

Rain chances start increasing for C OK by late morning into lunchtime Saturday. It will be a cold and miserable day across nearly the entire state. Temperatures will fall with the rain and may sneak some local areas down near 33-34 where wet snowflakes could fall. No accumulation, but would be interesting to see, at least. After Saturday is ruined, Sunday recovers to around 60F for C OK and Monday we are right back in the 70s.

[BBatesokc]

Totally thought my Apple Watch was calling me out this morning! (But then I realized it was just sending me an air quality alert)

[SEMIweather]

I-35 is shut down in both directions in Moore due to wind damage to the 34th Street bridge that's under construction.

[OKC Guy]

It has been raining medium to hard in NW OKC since 2pm, and still is. The NOAA rain fallen shows over 3” but I bet its closer to 3.5 to 4. Luckily mowed my yard yesterday.

[BG918]

Looks like most of Oklahoma received a good 1-2+ inches out of this weekend storm with the stark exception of NW OK which didn’t get anything.

[baralheia]

I'm 4 miles due east of the airport and I show 2.15" of rain on my weather station. That was a good soaking, but I'm glad we didn't get any heavier rain; the ground was pretty well saturated by the afternoon and that could have turned into a flood situation pretty quickly.

[Anonymous.]

Storm coming through on Wednesday looks like it will produce severe weather in parts of the state. Right now the forecast places area of focus across the NE 2/3 of the state. Compact low is expected to develop across NW TX and SW OK and eject to the east. This will likely develop storms across SW OK and push them E/NE. Right now SPC has 15% probabilities, but upgrades could be done in the next couple days.

[Bunty]

Looks like most of Oklahoma received a good 1-2+ inches out of this weekend storm with the stark exception of NW OK which didn’t get anything.

Yep. The next chance for rain comes Monday, PM.

[John1744]

Tomorrow looks interesting. Some amateur chasers I follow on another site seem to think the tornado potential just isn't there tomorrow at least for central OK. So hopefully they're right!

[jedicurt]

i'm hoping for some good news about timing that means i won't be in my car in traffic when it hits...

[emtefury]

i'm hoping for some good news about timing that means i won't be in my car in traffic when it hits...

David Payne said storm potential will start in OKC at about 5pm.

[Anonymous.]

Unique forecast for C OK today. The way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in a nearly guaranteed storm development across NW OK and S & E OK. Leaving a potential hole in the middle. We will have to monitor cumulus fields and radar for development across SW into C OK for impacts. Also potential for back-building development coming south off of the storms to the NW.

[okatty]

Does this looked changed now? Seems to have moved South since earlier this AM?

[Bunty]

Unique forecast for C OK today. The way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in a nearly guaranteed storm development across NW OK and S & E OK. Leaving a potential hole in the middle. We will have to monitor cumulus fields and radar for development across SW into C OK for impacts. Also potential for back-building development coming south off of the storms to the NW.

Tuesday night, Aaron Tuttle was on Facebook saying he saw weakness in the model data over central Oklahoma and said that change would likely happen and it sure did this morning.

[MaryB]

Aaron Tuttle has a degree in meterology?

[Bunty]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE COUNTIES MARKED IN DARK PINK:

[Anonymous.]

Hi-Res Short Range models latching onto the storms riding along into NW OK and then having explosive development to the south as they approach NC OK. If development occurs, this will be just directly west of OKC and points to the south and west as the night progresses. Main threat will be wind damage as storms will likely be linear.