General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[Achilleslastand]

Wow.....watching the locals last night they made it sound like it was a sure deal we would get significant snowfall now it appears just the opposite. At this point I welcome any and all forms of moisture.

[Anonymous.]

I am not sure what the local mets are forecasting and with how much confidence.

All I know is being overly confident about a winterstorm for Oklahoma in Feb/March that is 4-5 days away must mean you are a wizard.

[OKCRT]

So when is this next storm going to come into the metro area? How much snow is expected and how long will it last? Should we go to the store on Thurs. and stock up for 3 days-5day-a week? Does anyone have the answers? I don't watch the local weather much anymore. When I go to the weather chan. site it seems to always be wrong.

[okatty]

KOCO said 1 inch in OKC Friday - Saturday. 2 inches out western Okla. Backed way off the 5 plus inches they were calling for yday.

[Anonymous.]

Small snowband developing in TX PH with the upper part of this low that will be sweeping across N TX. If it holds together it could make a run along I-40 and areas south.

Will wait for morning runs to comment more on weekend storm.

[OKCisOK4me]

Nm

[Easy180]

At this point in the game does Saturday look worse than Friday?

[okatty]

Looks like lost of moisture from Sat morning on into early next week but Sunday and after temps in mid-40s or higher. Which I would think means that Saturday is the higher chance of winter precipt and we just get cold rain Sunday into next early next week.

[venture]

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

[Anonymous.]

Yea I think it is also the way the storms are coming down out of the Pacific. These are very large powerful storms that are creeping along. And during the creeping, smaller storms (lows) are coming up through the moisture stream out of the SW.

We are used to the main storm system just trucking right along and not getting hung up around the 4 corners region. Last night, the one that has been shooting systems all over the S and SE US finally came out across TX. Those are much easier to track and forecast.

The storm coming this weekend is much like the last one, it will be spawning these small lows that sometimes are and sometimes aren't as significant as models predict.

[Bobby821]

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

I wonder how the models will handle the severe storms and such as we transition into big time spring storms. Kinda makes me nervous if the models have been handing out crap info with regards to the winter weather storm systems which are less life threatening. Hopefully things will improve with them as we get into spring.

[venture]

I wonder how the models will handle the severe storms and such as we transition into big time spring storms. Kinda makes me nervous if the models have been handing out crap info with regards to the winter weather storm systems which are less life threatening. Hopefully things will improve with them as we get into spring.

Traditionally we have a completely different pattern then versus a big cut off low in the SW that just sits and spins.

[OKCisOK4me]

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

Pretty sure David Payne uses NAM cause I just saw that forecast on the news.

[okatty]

Pretty sure David Payne uses NAM cause I just saw that forecast on the news.

Mike Morgan called 1-2 inches thru Saturday turning to rain Sunday as temps rise. 2-4 far SW okla.

[OKCRT]

I just heard one of local weather guys yesterday that this upcoming storm was much stronger than this past one. I guess we just have to wait and see.

[Easy180]

I just heard one of local weather guys yesterday that this upcoming storm was much stronger than this past one. I guess we just have to wait and see.

Might be but the temps should be warmer so hopefully a decent portion of it will just be good old rain

[venture]

06Z NAM coming in line with GFS now.

[Anonymous.]

12Z is a little heavier in snow for both GFS and NAM.

This forecast will alter greatly depending on how well or poorly these waves of snow, that will ride out of the TX PH, stay together. Also sleet/freezing rain potential Sat/Sun/Maybe Monday. Any substantial snow/sleet pack will aid in cooling the lower atmosphere temps that will already be very close to freezing, which could result in icing potential.

[FritterGirl]

12Z is a little heavier in snow for both GFS and NAM.

This forecast will alter greatly depending on how well or poorly these waves of snow, that will ride out of the TX PH, stay together. Also sleet/freezing rain potential Sat/Sun/Maybe Monday. Any substantial snow/sleet pack will aid in cooling the lower atmosphere temps that will already be very close to freezing, which could result in icing potential.

We have work-related events both Friday evening and Saturday day.

Are we saying Friday will likely be clear (downtown OKC), but Saturday we should expect 1-2" (far north OKC).

Trying to work on our "Plan B" ideas.

[SoonerDave]

I swear I would hate being a meteorologist in OK during winter. All these models do is give you a really good range where to forecast a potential headache, knowing full well a diff of five miles or five degrees can make or break the whole outlook. Aiieeeee!!

[OKCRT]

Looks like this could turn into a doozie of a winter storm.

[Bobby821]

Looks like this could turn into a doozie of a winter storm.

How so? what has changed to make this a worse storm than has been predicted up to now?

[Bobby821]

Why is the metro area not included in the winter weather advisory? are we not going to get anything out of this now? Disapointing

[venture]

18Z NAM...

[Bobby821]

SO how much snow is the NAM forecasting for central Oklahoma?