Covid-19 News and Information

[Pete]

4,968 new cases today. Last several Thursdays: 13,428; 13,406; 10,502; 6,280; 4,166; 1,917.

Hospitalizations are 1,994 (+14).

ICU is unchanged at 409.

[DowntownMan]

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...690783b7382b2b

I wonder when we are going to get to this point.

Well we are are already there basically, if you choose so. The only real restriction we have in place to remove is basically the masks on public transit.

[Bill Robertson]

Well we are are already there basically, if you choose so. The only real restriction we have in place to remove is basically the masks on public transit.

And schools. And a handful of businesses that require employees to wear masks. Other than that not much left in the way of restrictions. Here in OK anyway.

[Pete]

4,027 new cases today. Last several Fridays: 8,655; 13,939; 11,315; 6,438; 3,974; 1,011.

Hospitalizations are 1,976 (-18).

ICU is 406 (-30).

[Pete]

For the week ending Friday:

39,816 new cases. Last several weeks: 72,774; 83,356; 59,393; 28,655; 14,728; 8,304.

Hospitalizations were -267 compared to last week.

ICU was -22 compared to last week.

[soonerguru]

Great news!

[Bill Robertson]

Great news!

Absolutely! and on the national front: On today's Reuters graphs not a single state has a rising 14 day average. 38 have a dropping average and the other 12 are flat. And the national average is 44 % of the Jan 14 peak.

[unfundedrick]

For the week ending Friday:

39,816 new cases. Last several weeks: 72,774; 83,356; 59,393; 28,655; 14,728; 8,304.

Hospitalizations were -267 compared to last week.

ICU was -22 compared to last week.

I don't understand why the ICU count is going down but I keep seeing news reports that there are 0 ICU beds available. There seem to be a misconnect somewhere.

[soonerguru]

I don't understand why the ICU count is going down but I keep seeing news reports that there are 0 ICU beds available. There seem to be a misconnect somewhere.

I don't know, but -22 for the whole week isn't much of a decline because that number would be for the entire state. So, it would make sense that despite that the numbers may be declining a bit, having 22 fewer ICU admissions isn't much of a decline when we were literally sending people out of state a couple weeks ago.

It will take another week or two of declines before hospitals aren't bursting at the seams. The good news is the numbers are going down, and since hospitalization numbers lag case numbers, it's a sign that the decline in case numbers we are seeing is real and hopefully sustainable. That's certainly cause for celebration.

[Bill Robertson]

I don't know, but -22 for the whole week isn't much of a decline because that number would be for the entire state. So, it would make sense that despite that the numbers may be declining a bit, having 22 fewer ICU admissions isn't much of a decline when we were literally sending people out of state a couple weeks ago.

It will take another week or two of declines before hospitals aren't bursting at the seams. The good news is the numbers are going down, and since hospitalization numbers lag case numbers, it's a sign that the decline in case numbers we are seeing is real and hopefully sustainable. That's certainly cause for celebration.

Yes. Case numbers have to drop for hospitalizations and ICU numbers to drop. With case numbers dropping like a rock the others will follow.

[unfundedrick]

Yes. Case numbers have to drop for hospitalizations and ICU numbers to drop. With case numbers dropping like a rock the others will follow.

But according to the figures Pete has been providing, hospitalizations and ICU numbers are already dropping. Maybe I'm misunderstanding his figures. Is the drop in hospitalizations and ICU numbers just referring to new patients or is about the current total numbers of people who are hospitalized or in an ICU?

[Bill Robertson]

But according to the figures Pete has been providing, hospitalizations and ICU numbers are already dropping. Maybe I'm misunderstanding his figures. Is the drop in hospitalizations and ICU numbers just referring to new patients or is about the current total numbers of people who are hospitalized or in an ICU?

Cases peaked around Jan 22. Hospitalizations started dropping around Jan 28. I would hope hospitalizations start to drop faster in the next week or two.

[king183]

I don't understand why the ICU count is going down but I keep seeing news reports that there are 0 ICU beds available. There seem to be a misconnect somewhere.

There is no misconnect, but I can understand why this is confusing because the ICU count is a function of a relatively complicated mix of variables. To boil it down as much as possible, the number of available ICU beds is dependent on 1) the actual bed/room and 2) the number of clinically appropriate staff available to attend to a patient in that room. When cases start rising, hospitals will “create” bed capacity through a number of strategies, including shifting staff from other parts of the hospital to ICU duty, purchasing temporary contracting staff, and using federal augmentation. Thus, at the peak of cases, hospitals are dependent on staff that are not normally working an ICU and are expected to be temporarily assigned to the ICU. When cases are falling, hospitals can slowly transition staff back—but in many cases, contracts expire, augmentation is rotated out, etc. And, remember, the ICU has all kinds of non-COVID patients because other diseases, accidents, etc. didn’t stop because of the pandemic, thus further reducing COVID ICU bed availability. In sum, the hospital may not have the literal beds/rooms available, but even when they do, they may not have the appropriate staff to work the beds, so they cannot claim that capacity. When their temporary augmentations measures expire, they extra capacity temporarily created also expires.

In a related situation, most people know OU Health recently built that brand new tower, but many don’t know that dozens of those brand new beds/room have remained empty and not operational because OU cannot find the staff to work them. This is just an example of where someone may walk through the building and say, “Look at all these beds! They’re saying there’s no room for patients!” without considering there is no one there to take care of the patients.

[Pete]

4,851 new cases for the 3-day period. Last several weeks: 23,798; 27,501; 42,157; 27,058; 12,023; 5,823.

Hospitalizations are 1,886 (-121).

ICU is 402 (-14).

[soonerguru]

But according to the figures Pete has been providing, hospitalizations and ICU numbers are already dropping. Maybe I'm misunderstanding his figures. Is the drop in hospitalizations and ICU numbers just referring to new patients or is about the current total numbers of people who are hospitalized or in an ICU?

Yes, it's a very positive development. But they haven't yet dropped enough for the hospitals. Recall that people at Integris and Saints and other major hospitals were being moved out of state for care as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Certainly you're not trying to imply that the hospitals are being misleading about their capacities, right?

So, yes, it's absolutely great that ICU admissions and hospital admissions are beginning to drop; they just haven't dropped enough yet for hospitals to relax.

[fortpatches]

There is no misconnect, but I can understand why this is confusing because the ICU count is a function of a relatively complicated mix of variables. To boil it down as much as possible, the number of available ICU beds is dependent on 1) the actual bed/room and 2) the number of clinically appropriate staff available to attend to a patient in that room. When cases start rising, hospitals will “create” bed capacity through a number of strategies, including shifting staff from other parts of the hospital to ICU duty, purchasing temporary contracting staff, and using federal augmentation. Thus, at the peak of cases, hospitals are dependent on staff that are not normally working an ICU and are expected to be temporarily assigned to the ICU. When cases are falling, hospitals can slowly transition staff back—but in many cases, contracts expire, augmentation is rotated out, etc. And, remember, the ICU has all kinds of non-COVID patients because other diseases, accidents, etc. didn’t stop because of the pandemic, thus further reducing COVID ICU bed availability. In sum, the hospital may not have the literal beds/rooms available, but even when they do, they may not have the appropriate staff to work the beds, so they cannot claim that capacity. When their temporary augmentations measures expire, they extra capacity temporarily created also expires.

In a related situation, most people know OU Health recently built that brand new tower, but many don’t know that dozens of those brand new beds/room have remained empty and not operational because OU cannot find the staff to work them. This is just an example of where someone may walk through the building and say, “Look at all these beds! They’re saying there’s no room for patients!” without considering there is no one there to take care of the patients.

It's my understanding also that not all beds are created equal. Some rooms simply do not have the capability to be ICU beds.

In normal times, ICUs typically run at roughly 70% to 80% capacity, a sweet spot where a unit can maintain enough resources to run, without being overstaffed, and still allow wiggle room for additional patients.

[oklip955]

Also consider specialty Hospitals are not the same. If say the Heart Hospital has an ICU bed for cardiac, its may not be set up for a trauma patient nor a coivid patient. I dont know if Bone and Joint Orthopedic Hospital or any Orthopedic type hospital can handle a covid patient or one that has had say a stroke. I am not in the medical community just an older lady that spent 10 yrs as an EMT/Adv back in the old days.

[Ginkasa]

4,851 new cases for the 3-day period. Last several weeks: 23,798; 27,501; 42,157; 27,058; 12,023; 5,823.

Hospitalizations are 1,886 (-121).

ICU is 402 (-14).

That's a pretty significant drop (which I'm not complaining about) but I wonder how much of it is due to people staying in and not getting tested due to the winter weather.

[fortpatches]

If Oklahoma posts their positivity rates, you could figure that out. If the drop is just due to people not being able to get out and get tested over the weekend, then the positivity rate would likely increase (percent of test takers that are positive) since the worse you are the more likely you are to try to take a test. The positivity rate can be used to gauge how well the recorded cases correspond with actual cases.

[kukblue1]

that's a pretty significant drop (which i'm not complaining about) but i wonder how much of it is due to people staying in and not getting tested due to the winter weather.

bingo!!!!!!!!!!.

[Pete]

Don't forget, the government has sent out millions of home test kits and there is no way within the Oklahoma way of reporting to account for anyone who tests positive at home.

[soonerguru]

^^Yes. I know a ton of folks who have used those tests or tests they bought at Walgreen's to get their positives. They're still doing what is intended: let folks know to stay home and isolate and reduce further transmission, but it would make the data very difficult to follow.

That said, the significant drop we are seeing appears to be real, and even the slightest reduction in hospitalizations seems to validate it.

[Urbanized]

^^^^^^^
I’d go so far as to say that MOST of the people I know who’ve tested positively recently did so via home testing and in many cases quarantined without even calling their own doctor to let them know about it. That’s all fine and good, but those cases don’t make it into the count at all. I think the days of daily test counts meaning anything are long gone.

[unfundedrick]

Yes, it's a very positive development. But they haven't yet dropped enough for the hospitals. Recall that people at Integris and Saints and other major hospitals were being moved out of state for care as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Certainly you're not trying to imply that the hospitals are being misleading about their capacities, right?

So, yes, it's absolutely great that ICU admissions and hospital admissions are beginning to drop; they just haven't dropped enough yet for hospitals to relax.

I wasn't trying to imply anything. I was just trying to understand and king183 gave a very good explanation.

[unfundedrick]

Don't forget, the government has sent out millions of home test kits and there is no way within the Oklahoma way of reporting to account for anyone who tests positive at home.

I wonder how the positives are calculated when you have a situation where someone gets a test that is positive and then wants to do it again a week later. If the test is still positive is that added to the total or do they note that is the same person and not added to the total.