May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Celebrator]

Yep both the GFS and EURO show widespread 3"+ approaching 5-6" in some areas through the second week of June. Enjoy the dry and warm weather over the next few days.

And Aaron Brackett said tonight that this week's storms chances, anyway, are not looking indicative of severe weather outbreaks. I, for one, will be very grateful for that, if true. Severe weather fatigue. Lived here for 15 years now and this is the first season in that period that I have felt that.

[PoliSciGuy]

This will probably be a controversial opinion, but I think the NWS needs to reconsider the value of a PDS watch.

Here's my reasoning. These days, "PDS" conjures up the notion of a May 3, 1999 or May 2013 gigantic, grinder tornado. But when they don't occur, people ask "why did the forecast bust" even if some damaging or deadly tornadoes actually drop.

The whole point of ANY watch is presumably, to varying degrees, inherently "dangerous." Any tornado, even a small spinup in a QLCS, carries the potential of a destructive, even deadly event, so is issuing a "PDS Tornado Watch" actually having the *reverse" effect and making a "regular" Tornado Watch less.... watchful, or seem less dangerous?

My point is people become numb to warnings. PDS watches imply very specific conditions, but if the *public perception* of those forecasts veracity becomes jaded, it seems it's value is diminished. A Tornado Watch is inherently indicative of a dangerous situation, and if all PDS does is put the adverb "Particularly" in front of it, perhaps it's value isnt as great as intended.

As you mention, there are very particular qualifications that go in to a PDS watch. Primarily, the threat of violent, long-track tornadoes. I think having a separate category for storms that are reminiscent of May 3, 1999 or May 20, 2013. I think it's worth educating the public better about these differences rather than ditching the category altogether. OK folks are among the most weather-aware people in the US, and I think they can grasp the difference between the threat of an occasional spinup vs. a serious weather day.

[SoonerDave]

As you mention, there are very particular qualifications that go in to a PDS watch. Primarily, the threat of violent, long-track tornadoes. I think having a separate category for storms that are reminiscent of May 3, 1999 or May 20, 2013. I think it's worth educating the public better about these differences rather than ditching the category altogether. OK folks are among the most weather-aware people in the US, and I think they can grasp the difference between the threat of an occasional spinup vs. a serious weather day.

But that's kinda my point. If "OK Types" are "weather aware" enough to make the distinction, why wouldn't the discussion within regular media products suffice? And in areas that *aren't* as weather aware, how does "PDS" help?

My whole aim is to illustrate the point that PDS isn't buying some if any marginally different behavior on the part of the public. Long before the PDS came out on May 6, media and NWS reports were coming out all-but predicting the end of civilization, and business, schools, and events were cancelled accordingly. So, once the PDS *did* come out, what was the benefit? And considering there was no "May 3 Repeat" (thankfully), and again Saturday, doesn't that necessarily start to diminish it's intended value?

I guess I'm asking the question, "What does a PDS watch do for the public that a *regular* watch *doesn't*?" Right now, the number of such watches versus the reality that followed suggests either we are overusing them, or don't have sufficiently refined forecasts to issue them with the requisite precision, either of which dilutes the value they are intended to convey. At the other end of the spectrum, if we implicitly if unintentionally train people to take PDS watches "seriously," doing so necessarily implies non-PDS watches are "less serious" despite the fact destruction and fatalities are eminently possible. And I'm sure TPTB at NWS/SPC don't want to go down a path that leads the public to believe watched and warnings devolve into tiers of "We REALLY mean this" versus "We REALLY REALLY mean THIS one!"

[Bunty]

I remember the guy who ran those and I think actually started this weather-specifix forum/page. Think his name was David and he was super nice
Hated to see him leave but he got a good opportunity closer to home as I recall. We had live chats and realtime reporting, really something actually. He gave great information! Anon and Semi do a.great job here too.

I liked his intro to starting out weather for the month pages on here that I used most of it after updating links for the new current weather conditions page on my weather site at https://stillwaterweather.com/currentconditionsinok (Not mobile phone friendly.)

[liirogue]

I guess I'm asking the question, "What does a PDS watch do for the public that a *regular* watch *doesn't*?"

For my friends and I at least, we rescheduled going out for dinner Saturday night and pushed it to Sunday instead. We've never rescheduled due to a regular tornado watch.

[SoonerDave]

For my friends and I at least, we rescheduled going out for dinner Saturday night and pushed it to Sunday instead. We've never rescheduled due to a regular tornado watch.

Fair enough.

[C_M_25]

Plenty of rain chances this week but I was really hoping we would wake up to a nice rainy morning here in okc. Missed it again.

[bison34]

And there is a gap on the radar right over OKC. Typical.

[SoonerDave]

From a purely selfish POV, is there any hope of Thursday *not* being a washout for Day One of the WCWS? The closer it gets, the worse the forecast seems to become. Like total rainout, early and late sessions. Any hope?

[crimsoncrazy]

Well looks like the first round of heavy rain that was forecasted for okc today will be a bust.

[SoonerDave]

Well looks like the first round of heavy rain that was forecasted for okc today will be a bust.

I was just noticing this very thing - big storm system coming in from Kansas didn't quite backbuild the way they expected, and the storms to the SW seem to be losing steam. Still a rain threat today but the washout concerns seem to have diminished!! Yay!!

[bison34]

OKC: Supposed to rain all week

Also OKC: gets no rain all week. Lol

[bison34]

Double post

[SoonerDave]

Looks like a band of moderate showers is heading into OKC as of about 930AM. Doesn't appear to be anything significant at this point, but first pitch for th initial WCWS game is slated for about 90 mins. Can't entirely tell if this will clear the area in that time.

[Jake]

From a purely selfish POV, is there any hope of Thursday *not* being a washout for Day One of the WCWS? The closer it gets, the worse the forecast seems to become. Like total rainout, early and late sessions. Any hope?

The “relocate the WCWS away from OKC” online crowd is salivating about the idea of rain delays.

[kukblue1]

So glad they built in extra time for games. Last year there were no delays. I could see the morning games being played this evening and the 2 games tonight pushed to 11am tomorrow. So 4 games tomorrow.. They might even just call it by 1 or 2pm and this morning session moved to tomorrow. Either way I don't see 4 games getting played today.

[LakeEffect]

We've received 0.50" in the last 30 minutes near downtown Edmond. Pretty impressive-looking MCV traveling across the area today.

[soonergolfer]

Maybe you should stick your head out the window. I have gotten a decent amount on the NW side for the last hour. Looks like it will last another few hours.

[bison34]

Hardly anything in SE OKC. Lol. And of course it gets very heavy just east of OKC.

[Anonymous.]

OKC proper has for sure been getting the short end of the rain gauge. It looks like even the MCS that will form in the PH later tonight will dive south of C OK tomorrow morning.

This goes to show that locally, things could be much different from mile-to-mile based purely on the randomness of these types of systems.

[bison34]

This will come back to suck for OKC, come August or September. And for next year with la niña, and it being drier.

[kukblue1]

Well that rain wasn't much at least for me by the outlet mall. .02. Softball going to get all their games in no problem

[The]

The “relocate the WCWS away from OKC” online crowd is salivating about the idea of rain delays.

Other than the smooth-brained Texas coach, who’s in this crowd?

[jedicurt]

Other than the smooth-brained Texas coach, who’s in this crowd?

it's the buzz of the internet amongst the fans of several teams (mostly UCLA and Florida fans from my experience). it's all they will talk about as long as OU is winning games.

[BoulderSooner]

This will come back to suck for OKC, come August or September. And for next year with la niña, and it being drier.

0.00% of OKC is in drought and 0.00% of OKC is even Abnormally dry