May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SoonerDave]

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

I would have sworn the NWS map I saw said OKC was 7-8? Maybe the maps have changed during the day.

[C_M_25]

I would have sworn the NWS map I saw said OKC was 7-8? Maybe the maps have changed during the day.

Yeah you’re right. Models hinted at storms firing at 7 in okc.

[SoonerDave]

After a brief rainshower maybe 30 mins ago, clouds are kinda breaking up here from my little knothole in SW OKC. Not clearing or anything, just clouds have lightened and and it's just breezy. Temp is still 81.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Bottom of the 9th two strikes… it’s almost over. Some airmass questions, that’s why there’s a pitch left.

[C_M_25]

Absolutely unreal that we can’t get some decent rain today. Dewpoints still around 73 with a very active atmosphere. That cap has been in place over us it seems most of the season.

[jn1780]

Fort Cobb storm now dissipating. That's all she wrote .

Edit. May have jump the gun there.

[C_M_25]

Jim Gardner needs to retire. The dude is such a drag on tv. Seems really grouchy and I feel like he’s been caught a few times complaining about David or something when his mic goes hot.

[Jersey Boss]

Jim Gardner needs to retire. The dude is such a drag on tv. Seems really grouchy and I feel like he’s been caught a few times complaining about David or something when his mic goes hot.

I'm surprised that drones have not replaced helicopters.

[C_M_25]

So this is the second PDS tornado watch that was issued for a massive area in the state in which there were maybe one or two tornadoes…and none of them were PDS’s. I know why it was issued. It was because the HRRR really ramped up storm development. However, the NAM 3 km nailed this system pretty well…especially the big cap in place.

I know they need to err on the side of caution on days like today, but they really need to dial these high resolution models a bit more…somehow. Maybe there will be a ton of good data from this spring to update and refine the models.

[John1744]

I definitely want some economist at OU to see if they could get a rough estimate of how much lost revenue there is from stores and shops closing early on days like today. My FB where I follow a lot of small local food and business shops was full of places closing up today around 3-4pm. Just curious for curious sake. I’m definitely glad they err on the side of caution.

[floyd the barber]

So this is the second PDS tornado watch that was issued for a massive area in the state in which there were maybe one or two tornadoes…and none of them were PDS’s. I know why it was issued. It was because the HRRR really ramped up storm development. However, the NAM 3 km nailed this system pretty well…especially the big cap in place.

I know they need to err on the side of caution on days like today, but they really need to dial these high resolution models a bit more…somehow. Maybe there will be a ton of good data from this spring to update and refine the models.

Yeah today did not match anyone's expectations.

[SoonerDave]

If I'm not mistaken, I believe the NWS is planning to retire the HRRR model later this year, replacing with other products within what I think is called their Rapid Response Radar Sytem

[C_M_25]

I think the other thing that hurts is the somewhat archaic way in which we gather data on the atmosphere with balloon releases once/twice per day. Granted, it’s probably the only way to get data on the upper atmosphere. However, why can’t we use data from planes to get a better handle on the lower atmosphere? Or do we do that already?

[Mr. Blue Sky]

NWS consistently played down the probability, while not minimizing the risk. The probability never went over 40%, prioritizing the confidence in NAM since midweek.

[Bunty]

Bottom of the 9th two strikes… it’s almost over. Some airmass questions, that’s why there’s a pitch left.

In Stillwater, a lightning delay at Cowgirl Stadium continues to let the severe storm just to the north of Stillwater pass on by. There has been no rain at the Cowgirl Stadium. Cowgirls led Arizona 10 to 3. Game might resume at 9:30 pm.

[Celebrator]

So is OKC metro in the clear now?

[yukong]

So is OKC metro in the clear now?

. It appears so. Yes.

[BG918]

Reports of damage and injuries from tornadoes in Claremore and Valley View/Sanger, TX. As predicted isolated storms produced violent tornadoes. Thankfully the major metro areas were spared today.

[C_M_25]

Looks like we’re going to be moving into an actively rainy period over the next couple of weeks. Love rainy days!

[Hollywood]

Up here, Benton County (AR), Bentonville and Rogers were hit hard. Multiple homes and businesses gone and still residents trapped.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like we’re going to be moving into an actively rainy period over the next couple of weeks. Love rainy days!

Not good for the Women's College World Series starting Thursday of this week....

[BG918]

Looks like we’re going to be moving into an actively rainy period over the next couple of weeks. Love rainy days!

Yep both the GFS and EURO show widespread 3"+ approaching 5-6" in some areas through the second week of June. Enjoy the dry and warm weather over the next few days.

[SoonerDave]

This will probably be a controversial opinion, but I think the NWS needs to reconsider the value of a PDS watch.

Here's my reasoning. These days, "PDS" conjures up the notion of a May 3, 1999 or May 2013 gigantic, grinder tornado. But when they don't occur, people ask "why did the forecast bust" even if some damaging or deadly tornadoes actually drop.

The whole point of ANY watch is presumably, to varying degrees, inherently "dangerous." Any tornado, even a small spinup in a QLCS, carries the potential of a destructive, even deadly event, so is issuing a "PDS Tornado Watch" actually having the *reverse" effect and making a "regular" Tornado Watch less.... watchful, or seem less dangerous?

My point is people become numb to warnings. PDS watches imply very specific conditions, but if the *public perception* of those forecasts veracity becomes jaded, it seems it's value is diminished. A Tornado Watch is inherently indicative of a dangerous situation, and if all PDS does is put the adverb "Particularly" in front of it, perhaps it's value isnt as great as intended.

[C_M_25]

This will probably be a controversial opinion, but I think the NWS needs to reconsider the value of a PDS watch.

Here's my reasoning. These days, "PDS" conjures up the notion of a May 3, 1999 or May 2013 gigantic, grinder tornado. But when they don't occur, people ask "why did the forecast bust" even if some damaging or deadly tornadoes actually drop.

The whole point of ANY watch is presumably, to varying degrees, inherently "dangerous." Any tornado, even a small spinup in a QLCS, carries the potential of a destructive, even deadly event, so is issuing a "PDS Tornado Watch" actually having the *reverse" effect and making a "regular" Tornado Watch less.... watchful, or seem less dangerous?

My point is people become numb to warnings. PDS watches imply very specific conditions, but if the *public perception* of those forecasts veracity becomes jaded, it seems it's value is diminished. A Tornado Watch is inherently indicative of a dangerous situation, and if all PDS does is put the adverb "Particularly" in front of it, perhaps it's value isnt as great as intended.

I think I agree with you here. In addition to what you said, I think the idea of PDS tornado watches insinuates a great degree in accuracy of forecasting than we currently have. We need to have standard tornado watches and only issue PDS tornado warnings as they happen. I think the verbiage “potential for long track tornadoes” is strong enough in conjunction with a standard watch to highlight the seriousness.

[BG918]

I think I agree with you here. In addition to what you said, I think the idea of PDS tornado watches insinuates a great degree in accuracy of forecasting than we currently have. We need to have standard tornado watches and only issue PDS tornado warnings as they happen. I think the verbiage “potential for long track tornadoes” is strong enough in conjunction with a standard watch to highlight the seriousness.

Similar to how the newer Tornado Emergency is used when there is a PDS Tornado Warning.