Covid-19 Economic Impact

[Pete]

It seems we will be on lockdown through May then very slowly start to open up again.

Recession is guaranteed and a full-on depression is possible.

Recovery will not be linear. Things will get better but then there will be outbreaks/hotspots and with no vaccine in sight, we will go through that cycle for probably a couple of years.

[Motley]

It may be a depression, but I believe we are more sophisticated in dealing with the economy now and hopefully avoid a ten year downturn. My financial adviser said he expects us to rebound part ways and then the slope will level off and take 2-4 years to return to pre-virus days. This will be a mass extinction for many businesses, but a new economy will arise and absent some additional unforeseen setback, it should see more like the early 2010s than the 1930s. Not comforting for the jobless since we won't see good employment numbers for a few years.

[Pete]

40% of all Americans work for companies under 100 employees.

It will take years for small businesses to return to pre-virus levels.

[jonny d]

It seems we will be on lockdown through May then very slowly start to open up again.

Recession is guaranteed and a full-on depression is possible.

Recovery will not be linear. Things will get better but then there will be outbreaks/hotspots and with no vaccine in sight, we will go through that cycle for probably a couple of years.

This is going to be a big thing. The FDA will have to get their money and kickbacks, so the vaccine will take longer than it should. Would definitely not surprise me if other countries had one green-lighted before we get ours to final testing, because of bureaucratic BS.

[Pete]

^

Even once a vaccine is developed, it will take years to inoculate everyone and some won't do it at all.

[mkjeeves]

I am not typically required to file a tax return. Can I still receive my payment?

Yes. People who typically do not file a tax return will need to file a simple tax return to receive an economic impact payment. Low-income taxpayers, senior citizens, Social Security recipients, some veterans and individuals with disabilities who are otherwise not required to file a tax return will not owe tax.

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service today announced that Social Security beneficiaries who are not typically required to file tax returns will not need to file an abbreviated tax return to receive an Economic Impact Payment. Instead, payments will be automatically deposited into their bank accounts.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press...7VRcPFicAg75CM

[Teo9969]

ON another note, I had a child in 2019 but have not yet filed my 2019 return so they'll be operating off the assumption we're a 2 adult household...when I go to file 2020 returns next year, will the child portion of the payment be counted toward my withholdings or would I need go ahead and work to receive the disbursement?

[PhiAlpha]

^

Even once a vaccine is developed, it will take years to inoculate everyone and some won't do it at all.

I wonder if this will make some of the antivaxxers out there realize that pandemics and epidemics like this used to be much more common but we started doing something.....something...... on a large scale from the 1940s onward that made them less frequent.

[David]

ON another note, I had a child in 2019 but have not yet filed my 2019 return so they'll be operating off the assumption we're a 2 adult household...when I go to file 2020 returns next year, will the child portion of the payment be counted toward my withholdings or would I need go ahead and work to receive the disbursement?

I think the answer is hurry up and get your 2019 return filed ASAP if you can if there is a meaningful difference between 2018 and 2019 for you. I don't know when they would have pulled the data for the disbursement but it might not be too late.

[Greggo71]

Boeing offering voluntary buyouts to all employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-all-employees

[HangryHippo]

I wonder if this will make some of the antivaxxers out there realize that pandemics and epidemics like this used to be much more common but we started doing something.....something...... on a large scale from the 1940s onward that made them less frequent.

One would seriously hope!

[chuck5815]

Boeing offering voluntary buyouts to all employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-all-employees

damn, that seems like bad news for OKC

[Pete]

Jobless claims leap record 6.6 million at end of March as coronavirus triggers mass layoffs

The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week soared by a record 6.6 million, bringing the increase in new jobless claims in the last two weeks of March to 10 million as the all-out effort to slow the coronavirus slammed the economy.

Countless businesses across the country have been forced to close or scale back hours, throwing masses of people out of work and triggering an unprecedented back-to-back surge in initial jobless claims. New claims are likely keep climbing in the next few weeks as the damage unfolds.

In just the past two weeks alone, new claims have easily exceeded the peak number of people who collected benefits during the 2007-2009 recession. A then-record 6.6 million people drew benefits at the tail end of the last recession.

Soon the clutch of unemployed Americans is likely to surpass the prior record of 15.3 million, also seen during what has become known as the Great Recession. Economists predict 25 million Americans or more could lose their jobs in the next few months, at least temporarily.

[PhiAlpha]

Boeing offering voluntary buyouts to all employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-all-employees

Given hit they've already been taking due to the 737 Max...the Covid situation has to be a pretty major blow to them.

[OKC Guy]

The question that needs to be debated: How many job losses are acceptable before we reach the point where "the cure becomes worse than the disease?" 10 million are already out of work. Is 20 million acceptable? 30 million? Is there any limit?

[BBatesokc]

Have super Wal-Marts in the metro started only opening their grocery sides?

Why would they do that? The store is full of essential merchandise.

[HangryHippo]

The question that needs to be debated: How many job losses are acceptable before we reach the point where "the cure becomes worse than the disease?" 10 million are already out of work. Is 20 million acceptable? 30 million? Is there any limit?

What do YOU think the limit should be?

[Pete]

Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA analysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million
Published: April 2, 2020 at 1:54 p.m. ET
By Mark DeCambre

There are no parallels for the pandemic fueled slowdown that the U.S. economy is currently contending with, and that is forcing economists like those of Bank of America Global Research to forecast a decidedly grimmer outlook for the American economy than they offered just two weeks ago.

The BofA researchers on Thursday said the coming recession “appears to be deeper and more prolonged than we were led to believe just 14 days ago when we last updated our forecasts, not just in the US but globally as well.”

The April 2 research report, which includes star economist Michelle Meyer, comes as the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week soared by a record 6.6 million, bringing the increase in new jobless claims in the last two weeks of March to 10 million.

As MarketWatch reports the scale of the shutdowns of business in force, intended to help mitigate the spread of the deadly pathogen, is unprecedented and is having a substantial negative impact on the labor market and the broader economy.

To that end, BofA sees between 16 and 20 million job losses, which could send the unemployment rate, which stands at 3.5% as of February’s report, surging within a few months to 15.6%, which would by far outstrip the unemployment rate during the 2007-09 recession.

A report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, but isn’t likely to show the full extent of the labor-market damage because of when that data was recorded, just before the worst of the coronavirus outbreak.

The BofA team forecast three consecutive quarters of contraction in gross domestic product, “with the US economy shrinking 7% (annualized) in 1Q, 30% in 2Q and 1% in 3Q.”

On the bright side, the economists estimate that the fourth quarter of 2020 will see a sizable pop in business activity as the measures put in place to slow the deadly contagion are slowly unwound.

That said, the cumulative decline in economic expansion will be severe: “We forecast the cumulative decline in GDP to be 10.4% and this will be the deepest recession on record, nearly five times more severe than the post-war average,” the analysts wrote.

Why are the researchers predicting “a recession unlike any other,” as they describe in their report, despite the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented efforts to loosen seized-up areas of the financial market and a limitless bond-buying program as well as a $2.28 trillion relief package that was signed into law on Friday by President Donald Trump?

The analysts say that while they expect the consumer spending to eventually return, turning positive in the third quarter, they anticipate “further contraction in business and residential investment.”

“We also think there will be additional inventory contraction given impaired supply chains and frictions in production,” BofA wrote.

While consumer spending will likely turn positive in 3Q as the economy slowly opens, they still see weakness in the consumer “as they face job cuts and a significant negative wealth shock,” they wrote

“This naturally leads to more cautious behavior,” the analysts said.

[OKC Guy]

What do YOU think the limit should be?

When did this really start? No one knows but its speculated long before. If so herd immunity is around.

Tell me when it got here and how many had it already

[HangryHippo]

When did this really start? No one knows but its speculated long before. If so herd immunity is around.

Tell me when it got here and how many had it already

Or you could just answer the question.

[OKC Guy]

Or you could just answer the question.

Are you ok with 30,000 flu deaths per year?

[HangryHippo]

Are you ok with 30,000 flu deaths per year?

Or you could just answer the question.

[AP]

This has to be one of the worst deflections I've seen on the board. Been asked directly to answer the question at least 3 times.

[SEMIweather]

This has to be one of the worst deflections I've seen on the board. Been asked directly to answer the question at least 3 times.

And the sad/hilarious thing is that it's a completely false choice in the first place. The idea that we'd somehow still have a functioning economy if we let the virus run rampant, which would collapse our healthcare system and kill off millions of people in a matter of months, is ludicrous.

[gopokes88]

damn, that seems like bad news for OKC

Not as much as you'd think. Their division is all fully funded govt work. Some, but not like SC or Washington will get hit.