General Weather Discussion - March 2015

[venture]

[turnpup]

Got at least golf ball size hail here at the house. It'll be interesting to see if the roof is damaged. Texted my roofer and told him to put me on the list.

[John1744]

So what the heck happened at the NWS today? Were they so deadset in their call of very low tornado threats that they refused to call it when there actually were some?

I've always kind of held NWS to the gold standard but we were watching tornadoes on 9 and 4 and they were tweeting saying they weren't tornadoes just straight line winds. Seems like it'd be prudent to be better safe than sorry and issue the warning.

[Canoe]

Channel 4 destroyed channel 5 this time around.

[John1744]

Channel 4 was all over it.

Channel 9 felt like they had too many cooks in the kitchen and Payne seemed to be getting frustrated when scenes weren't being switched quick enough. Though they had several very good helicopter shots.

[venture]

So what the heck happened at the NWS today? Were they so deadset in their call of very low tornado threats that they refused to call it when there actually were some?

I've always kind of held NWS to the gold standard but we were watching tornadoes on 9 and 4 and they were tweeting saying they weren't tornadoes just straight line winds. Seems like it'd be prudent to be better safe than sorry and issue the warning.

It is a tough battle to play...at least with the early on stuff. The front had passed and they were outflow dominant, but as we were discussing in the chat, it was getting pulled back into the storm signaling very strong inflow. So the earlier spin ups, do you really warn for something that while may officially be a tornado will last for maybe 15 seconds and barely be recognizable outside of wind damage.

I would imagine they will agree that they played too conservative today. There were signs showing that things weren't going to stay totally outflow dominant and non-tornadic...but it was a tough call. Should they have pulled the trigger? Immediately as soon as KWTV had the image of the funnel near El Reno. That should have tipped them off that things were going to behave differently than normal, especially with rotation that was increasing at the time.

[Jim Kyle]

I drove through pea-sized hail and torrential downpours, about 6;30 or so, from Golden Corral on NW Hiway just east of MacArthur out to my home near NW 122 and Council. I've driven through heavier, but not very many times. Occasionally visibility was down to less than 100 feet, and I only met one vehicle on Council between Britton Road and Hefner!

Haven't found any signs of damage in my area, though, and it's now bright and almost clear...

[Swake]

One dead and 30+ hurt in Sand Springs trailer park.

Mobile homes should not be legal in Oklahoma.

[John1744]

This whole night has just once again proved how insane Oklahoma weather can be.

[Richard at Remax]

The channel 9 feed of it crossing through moore was some of the craziest stuff I've ever seen.

[Plutonic Panda]

One thing I will miss in Cali is these storms. I hope everyone is alright. Man I love weather like this!!!

[venture]

Just a glimpse...mid week next week we are looking at another round of 2-3 days of severe weather again. Pretty interesting since we didn't really see "Dixie Alley" have its season this year yet when they are normally ahead of us.

[Dustin]

Channel 4 was all over it.

Channel 9 felt like they had too many cooks in the kitchen and Payne seemed to be getting frustrated when scenes weren't being switched quick enough. Though they had several very good helicopter shots.

I was insanely impressed with Mike Morgan today. Say what you want about him, he is the best meteorologist on television in OKC.

I'm really surprised the NWS didn't initiate a tornado warning sooner. Luckily no one was killed.

[jn1780]

Just a glimpse...mid week next week we are looking at another round of 2-3 days of severe weather again. Pretty interesting since we didn't really see "Dixie Alley" have its season this year yet when they are normally ahead of us.

Interesting how its already more active than last year it seems like.

[catch22]

One thing I will miss in Cali is these storms. I hope everyone is alright. Man I love weather like this!!!

Me too, although I'll be in Oregon. I crave the severe thunderstorm season.

[Plutonic Panda]

Me too, although I'll be in Oregon. I crave the severe thunderstorm season.

Yeah. We'll just have to deal with the ocean, scenic mountains, year-round moderate temps, great urban development, great mass transit, etc.

I will miss it though no doubt. Does Portland get the rolling fog like San Francisco does? That is beautiful when that happens.

[BB37]

Just a glimpse...mid week next week we are looking at another round of 2-3 days of severe weather again. Pretty interesting since we didn't really see "Dixie Alley" have its season this year yet when they are normally ahead of us.

Payne on 9 just said there were 10 tornados in the state today, versus *** 19 *** for all of 2014.

[Bunty]

Me too, although I'll be in Oregon. I crave the severe thunderstorm season.

Maybe some people love the stress, or thrill of being in a tornado warning, but not me.

[bchris02]

Maybe some people love the stress, or thrill of being in a tornado warning, but not me.

I second this. After today I am pretty nervous about what is to come in April and May. I hate the seasonal anxiety yang comes with springtime in Oklahoma. One thing is certain is severe weather season cannot be predicted. Just last week NewsOK ran a story predicting a slow season this year.

[Celebrator]

I second this. After today I am pretty nervous about what is to come in April and May. I hate the seasonal anxiety yang comes with springtime in Oklahoma. One thing is certain is severe weather season cannot be predicted. Just last week NewsOK ran a story predicting a slow season this year.

Don't EXPECT the worst to come. It doesn't have to be a rough season to come. Check that mentality. Just imagine the power of that thinking. Be alert, don't bury your head in the sand, but don't lock into dark expectations.

[venture]

I second this. After today I am pretty nervous about what is to come in April and May. I hate the seasonal anxiety yang comes with springtime in Oklahoma. One thing is certain is severe weather season cannot be predicted. Just last week NewsOK ran a story predicting a slow season this year.

I suppose it is time to do the seasonal message to you Chris. If you are going to come in here with this seasonal anxiety year after year, then you need to start working on getting professional help. We've been over this many times year after year since you joined this forum, enough is enough.

Secondly, that NewsOK story had NOTHING to do with predicting a slow season. It was very poorly written, based on the source (that was quoted) which was available to read elsewhere. NWS Norman did a write up a couple weeks back how slow starts meaning absolutely nothing to the rest of the season - especially since some of the biggest seasons started off very slow.

For reference...here are the Top 10 March's on record. I'm leaving the other months on there for reference.

Year	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ann.
1991	0	0	17	24	20	4	1	0	0	7	0	0	73
1959	0	2	16	3	35	1	3	5	2	2	1	0	70
2000	0	2	15	6	11	3	0	0	0	7	0	0	44
2008	4	0	13	9	42	5	0	0	2	0	1	1	77
2004	0	0	12	13	26	4	0	0	0	1	6	0	62
1977	0	1	11	4	31	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	54
1982	0	0	11	11	56	11	1	3	2	0	2	4	101
1961	0	4	10	14	42	7	3	0	1	1	0	0	82
1990	0	0	10	3	10	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	30
1987	0	3	9	0	5	0	1	0	1	0	4	0	23

[silvergrove]

On Highway 9, looking west towards Anadarko.

[Plutonic Panda]

Beautiful!!

[Of Sound Mind]

It is a tough battle to play...at least with the early on stuff. The front had passed and they were outflow dominant, but as we were discussing in the chat, it was getting pulled back into the storm signaling very strong inflow. So the earlier spin ups, do you really warn for something that while may officially be a tornado will last for maybe 15 seconds and barely be recognizable outside of wind damage.

I would imagine they will agree that they played too conservative today. There were signs showing that things weren't going to stay totally outflow dominant and non-tornadic...but it was a tough call. Should they have pulled the trigger? Immediately as soon as KWTV had the image of the funnel near El Reno. That should have tipped them off that things were going to behave differently than normal, especially with rotation that was increasing at the time.

As I said in the chat yesterday, I completely understand and support conservative, deliberate and well-reasoned forecasting that's traditionally been NWS's strength. However, that conservative philosophy doesn't work quite as well with nowcasting, in which it's better to be safe and err on the side of warnings, especially with mounting evidence on local TV coverage and storm spotter chatter of significant rotation in those supercells despite how NWS thought those storms were "supposed" to act along the cold front. If we've learned anything in Oklahoma, it should be that the weather doesn't always act/behave the way it's "supposed" to and it can still be unpredictable and do odd things. People are depending on the NWS (apparently too much based on yesterday) to provide warnings of the very real danger of developing extreme weather conditions, even if the "official" tornado warning turns out to only be straightline wind damage — which can be just as dangerous.

[catch22]

I am completely disappointed in the NWS. They completely dropped the ball. Seeing these tweets line up and knowing people were injured and how many could have been killed if the tornado were just a bit stronger. I'm one of the harshest TV weather critics, and one of the biggest critics of Mike Morgan and the Drama Club, and a huge supporter and proponent of the professionals at the NWS -- and I am at a loss for words when I read the following tweets. Props to Mike Morgan and his team -- we watched at work (until the power went out) and he handled the situation very well and possibly saved many lives. It was frustrating seeing live images of the tornado sweeping near my neighborhood and the NWS refusing to issue a warning.