General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[venture]

For tomorrow/Monday or just throughout the week?

Sunday to Monday.

[Achilleslastand]

Approx. what time tomorrow is this expected to start in the metro?

[venture]

Mid afternoon-ish.

[okatty]

TV weather predicted only an inch on this first round in OKC thru Monday (KOCO). Sounds like lots more chances going into late next week and weekend.

[venture]

TV weather predicted only an inch on this first round in OKC thru Monday (KOCO). Sounds like lots more chances going into late next week and weekend.

They may not be far off...but a lot of this is going to come down to a localized band of enhanced snow. NAM has it in the metro to points east. GFS has it over SE OK.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisories are up now for the Metro.

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY.

* TIMING: BANDS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

* SNOW IMPACT: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS OF SNOW...PERHAPS IN THE THREE TO FIVE
INCH RANGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40. A WINTER
STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ONCE THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES CLEARER.

* SLEET IMPACTS: A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS... ARDMORE...AND COALGATE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
SLEET MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN AREAS WHERE ONLY SLEET OCCURS...UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[venture]

coughbreadcoughmilkcough....darn throat is dry.

[OKCisOK4me]

My grocery store is less than a mile away. I'll believe it when I see it...

[venture]

GFS is further south than NAM with the heavy snow bad...

[iambecoming]

Come on snow! Been waiting all winter for a good amount.

[OKCisOK4me]

That's cool. I can deal with half an inch. It's next weekend I'm worried about.

[venture]

Canadian

[John1744]

NWS upped the local amounts a bit.

[venture]

HRRR through 11PM tonight....

[Easy180]

Any chance of a complete bust at this point or is it guaranteed the OKC area will get something?

[sacolton]

It's a complete bust. OKC is inside a massive dry slot. Another weather model that missed the mark.

[venture]

It's a complete bust. OKC is inside a massive dry slot. Another weather model that missed the mark.

Actually...GFS is nailing this dead on. Wave 1 to the NW, which is what happened. Wave 2 to the Southeast...which is happening. Wave 3 late tonight and tomorrow is where the questions remain.

HRRR is handling things well right now too. It is forecasting light precip to increase over the next hour or two and move up into at least the Southern metro area (where some precip is already being reported). This would last until about 10PM until Wave 3 comes through overnight/tomorrow morning.

[sacolton]

Thanks, Venture. Hope things get interesting soon. Nothing happening in Edmond.

[ouamber]

Venture, do you have the snow totals for the thurs/Fri/sat storm from the Euro?

[venture]

Venture, do you have the snow totals for the thurs/Fri/sat storm from the Euro?

I don't pay for it, so no. I haven't checked wunderground yet to add them up.

[venture]

Advisories were dropped for North Central OK...and they are least likely to see any accumulation with Wave 3 tonight/tomorrow. HRRR forecast position of Wave 3 at 3AM still has it pretty far off the SW...so probably in here closer to rush hour.

[venture]

My thoughts on accumulations for the Metro area for the rest of this system.

Today...scattered flurries and sleet today - no major issues at all.
Tonight/Tomorrow...main wave 3 comes through. I expect much of the higher totals to be along/south of I-40 as NAM has stuck to for a couple days now. GFS is still holding back on moisture with this next wave, so there is always a chance we don't see much of anything. If NAM verifies and HRRR seems to be trending that way, we very well could see a heavier band that gets 3-6" of snow late overnight and tomorrow somewhere from SW OK through Central or South Central OK into Eastern OK. The band will likely be very narrow - to the point where someone like Moore could get an inch, but Norman could get 5 and Purcell gets 1. Not saying that is the forecast for those cities...just putting it in perspective.

Still not 100% on totals tonight due to GFS being an outlier this close in.

[Easy180]

My thoughts on accumulations for the Metro area for the rest of this system.

Today...scattered flurries and sleet today - no major issues at all.
Tonight/Tomorrow...main wave 3 comes through. I expect much of the higher totals to be along/south of I-40 as NAM has stuck to for a couple days now. GFS is still holding back on moisture with this next wave, so there is always a chance we don't see much of anything. If NAM verifies and HRRR seems to be trending that way, we very well could see a heavier band that gets 3-6" of snow late overnight and tomorrow somewhere from SW OK through Central or South Central OK into Eastern OK. The band will likely be very narrow - to the point where someone like Moore could get an inch, but Norman could get 5 and Purcell gets 1. Not saying that is the forecast for those cities...just putting it in perspective.

Still not 100% on totals tonight due to GFS being an outlier this close in.

Scratching my post as I was referencing the NWS Tulsa discussion

[kelroy55]

Things are starting to get icy here in south Fort Worth and all schools in DFW are closed tomorrow.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'll be surprised if anything happens overnight.