General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[venture]

All that rain in the west going to head this way?

Eventually it'll build this way as the cut off low...slowly...very very slowly...moves east.

Update precip forecast from OUN...

[Charlie40]

It is what we need. Norman right now is around a deficit of 12 inches so far for the year to date. Hopefully we get our storm season in June to help catch up.

Hey Venture, How is June looking for us storm wise? I know it is probably too early to tell much yet but have you noticed any pattern changes in the long range outlooks that may be hope full for us for more rain?

[Anonymous.]

Well the models are nailing this one, so far. This super slow moving storm is pretty much made to counter the drought. Beautiful sight.

It is going to be very close from C to E OKin terms of ruining Memorial weekend plans outdoors. E OK looks to have the best shot at not seeing rain until at least later towards Monday. But it is going to be close and unpredictable.

Right now large area of precip is just camped out over TX panhandle and spilling into W/SW OK.


Here are maps to KIND OF help you determine what days you have best shot at rain this holiday weekend:

Next 1-3 days:



Sunday into next week:



Grand totals just within 7 day period (this could go on longer):

[venture]

Hey Venture, How is June looking for us storm wise? I know it is probably too early to tell much yet but have you noticed any pattern changes in the long range outlooks that may be hope full for us for more rain?

A bit too early to tell, but the moisture form this current system could definitely help with it. At least hopefully keep gulf moisture from mixing out so fast for later setups. Oh course June can be mixed in how we get storms. Either the typical dryline stuff we normally see in May or the Northwest Flow MCS activity that bring the motherships in from CO/KS.

[Anonymous.]

Looking long-range GFS. We look to be in an unsettled pattern for at least the first full week of June.

I am absolutely shocked at this system, and to think we could have several more of the same crawl through here is amazing.

[venture]

Looking long-range GFS. We look to be in an unsettled pattern for at least the first full week of June.

I am absolutely shocked at this system, and to think we could have several more of the same crawl through here is amazing.

Just as good as a tropical system for the most part.

Charles to your question...the new GFS is still running. I'll post an update for long range storm once that and the Euro are done this afternoon.

[bchris02]

A bit too early to tell, but the moisture form this current system could definitely help with it. At least hopefully keep gulf moisture from mixing out so fast for later setups. Oh course June can be mixed in how we get storms. Either the typical dryline stuff we normally see in May or the Northwest Flow MCS activity that bring the motherships in from CO/KS.

I remember last summer we got NW flow MCS storms pretty much all summer long, even in July and August before the faucet was pretty much shut off in the fall. Hopefully the same thing happens this year.

[venture]

Some slow moving rain in the Western Metro right now. One stronger cell with some occasional small hail possible into Northern Grady/Southern Canadian. The mainly light to moderate rain behind that back to about Altus. Some popup storms forming over Northern OK back to the SW towards Enid. Don't see anything getting too out of control today, just some good rain for a few. A few locations in SW OK picked up 1 to almost 3 inches of rain today in the last 6 hours. So keep hoping. Norman is at day 46 straight without getting 0.25" of rain or more.

[OKCRT]

Some slow moving rain in the Western Metro right now. One stronger cell with some occasional small hail possible into Northern Grady/Southern Canadian. The mainly light to moderate rain behind that back to about Altus. Some popup storms forming over Northern OK back to the SW towards Enid. Don't see anything getting too out of control today, just some good rain for a few. A few locations in SW OK picked up 1 to almost 3 inches of rain today in the last 6 hours. So keep hoping. Norman is at day 46 straight without getting 0.25" of rain or more.

Is there somewhere online where we can watch Canton lake fill up? I remember someone posted a thread a while back that showed this data but can't seem to fine it. This rain is a true blessing.

[venture]

Is there somewhere online where we can watch Canton lake fill up? I remember someone posted a thread a while back that showed this data but can't seem to fine it. This rain is a true blessing.

This is the best one, but having issues loading today: http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/CANT.lakepage.html

Also can see some info at: USGS Current Conditions for USGS 07238500 Canton Lake near Canton, OK

[OKCRT]

This is the best one, but having issues loading today: http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/CANT.lakepage.html

Also can see some info at: USGS Current Conditions for USGS 07238500 Canton Lake near Canton, OK

Yes that 1st link is the one that shows like on an hourly basis I believe. Not loading right now though. Thanks.

[venture]

Yes that 1st link is the one that shows like on an hourly basis I believe. Not loading right now though. Thanks.

Just loaded for me tonight. 21% full...so really no improvement at all for months.

[Plutonic Panda]

will the clouds move out so we can see this meteor shower?

[ljbab728]

will the clouds move out so we can see this meteor shower?

I'm hardly an expert, plupan, but I can answer that. NO

[Plutonic Panda]

I hardly an expert, plupan, but I can answer that. NO

[venture]

Some good rain yesterday for many. More on the way later today.
-

Day 47 in Norman now. At least we got something yesterday.

[catch22]

Nice cell headed towards Lake Canton

[Dennis Heaton]

Nice lil gully washer in far NW OKC.

[OKCRT]

Hopefully that cell will sit right over Canton and flood the lake area with rain. Any reports from the folks up there?

[Dustin]

The sunset is stunning tonight.

[soonerguru]

The sunset is stunning tonight.

Yes. Amazing.

[venture]

Slight Risk today far SW OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PORTION OF W TX...FAR
SWRN OK...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A SRN STREAM
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE PAC
NW AND NRN ROCKIES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF
THE MS VALLEY...WHILE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

...PARTS OF W AND S TX..
AN UPPER IMPULSE NOTED IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN MX...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TX BIG BEND
AREA BY MID-MORNING MON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE PREVALANCE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS
W/W-CNTRL TX...WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON POSITION OF KEY
MESOSCALE FEATURES /E.G. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/.

A SLIGHT EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE PERSISTENT CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR. MIDLEVEL SWLYS ATTENDANT TO
SURROUNDING AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /E.G. 40 KTS AT 500 MB/. A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WITH AT LEAST MODEST SFC
HEATING /TEMPS 70S-80S F/...MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000
J/KG APPEAR LIKELY IN AREAS UNPERTURBED BY MORNING CONVECTION. AMPLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.


CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG PREEXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INVOF THE TX PERMIAN BASIN/EDWARDS PLATEAU
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SHARPER MOISTURE
GRADIENT/DRYLINE WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN
NM...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
LOW...CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXIST WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY
DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

[venture]

Slight Risk expanded NE somewhat with the newest update. Risk area is generally south of I-40 and west of Hinton - Chickasha - Velma - Ringling line.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX AND SWRN OK...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL LINE

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON SVR POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD WILL BE PERSISTENT/SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE -- CENTERED AT 12Z
OVER NWRN NM. PRIOR/00Z 500-MB ISALLOHYPSIC ANALYSIS SHOWED LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RISES IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF THIS CYCLONE...INDICATING THAT THE FILLING PROCESS HAS BEGUN.
500-MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ACCELERATES ESEWD
TO CDS/LTS REGION BY 12Z. IN AFFECTED FLOW FIELDS ALOFT...MCV NOW
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AND STLT IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX SHOULD EJECT NEWD TO SERN MO/SERN KS
REGION...SIMILARLY TO RR FCST. THIS FEATURE ALSO IS DEPICTED BY
26/06Z NAM...BUT THAT MODEL ODDLY SPLITS/DISPLACES MUCH OF ITS
VORTICITY FIELD STRONGLY RIGHTWARD OF WINDS ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE...MIDDLE-UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER QUE SHOULD TRACK SEWD
ACROSS WRN MARITIME PROVINCES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APCHG WA COAST
WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS WA TODAY...THEN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION TONIGHT TO FORM BROAD/WEAK CLOSED CYCLONE OVER NRN
POTIONS AB/SK.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM FAR NRN ONTARIO SWWD
ACROSS NERN MN TO WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL SD...THEN NWWD OVER ERN MT
TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG MT/SK BORDER. COLD FRONTOGENESIS WAS
EVIDENT SW OF LATTER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MT. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MOST OF MT THROUGH PERIOD. AND SEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS WI...MN...NRN IA AND NERN NEB. FARTHER S...SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE EVIDENT OVER TX/OK FROM BOTH ONGOING AND PRIOR
CONVECTION DATING BACK TO YESTERDAY AFTN. DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM
WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO SSWWD ACROSS ERN NM THEN SSEWD OVER BIG BEND
REGION OF W TX. MIXING MIGHT MOVE DRYLINE SLIGHTLY EWD TODAY...BUT
ALSO WILL ACT TO SHARPEN ITS DEFINITION.

...SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTN...INITIALLY IN DISCRETE TO SMALL-CLUSTER MODES OF MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.
MAIN POTENTIAL GENESIS ZONES APPEAR TO BE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN PANHANDLE AND NW TX NEAR
CAPROCK. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL SETTLE DEPENDING ON
1. DEPTH OF DENSITY CURRENT...WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN
ITS LOCATION IN UPPER-AIR DATA VOID...AND
2. DURATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TO ITS N THAT
WOULD DEEPEN AND REINFORCE ASSOCIATED DENSITY CURRENT.

CHARACTER AND ULTIMATE STALLING/RETREAT POSITION OF THAT BOUNDARY
WILL PLAY SUBSTANTIAL ROLE IN DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...INCLUDING CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO
ONE OR TWO PRIMARY COMPLEXES LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT...MOVING EWD
ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. SFC DEW POINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS OVER MOST OF THIS AREA THANKS TO ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES...HOWEVER SFC HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT 1000-2000 J/KG PEAK MLCAPE IN AIR MASS THAT IS PRECONVECTIVE
WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT/AFTN ACTIVITY. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN BEFORE ALSO...DUE TO WEAKENING OF MID-UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLS.

[OKCisOK4me]

So the low is finally moving by?

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

[AFCM]

I

Nah. Wichita Falls is down to drinking toilet water at this point so I say let'em have the bulk.

I take it they're out of Brawndo.



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