Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[ou48A]

Mm

[Bunty]

I noticed that KOCO spent from 10 to 10:30 doing nothing but covering the storm activity.

I couldn't stick with it that long, because about all the weathermen were doing was stressing the tornado warning in the Ponca City area. So I changed it to KFOR, which wasn't then stressing the weather.

[ou48A]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...eather+Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL... WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL... LARGER THAN BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS GREATER
THAN 65 MPH... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NEAR A RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS... THERE IS A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

THESE STORMS WILL THEN DRIFT EAST
TOWARD WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THESE STORMS
WILL POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THROUGH THE EVENING...

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WITH A
CONTINUING RISK OF HAIL LARGER THE GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS... AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT

[ou48A]

http://www.facebook.com/ATsFans
Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)

2 hours ago

Severe Weather Update: Last night's storms released an undular bore which helped to erode most of the CAP across OK/N TX. The shear profile supports tornadic storm development across a good region of OK and E TX panhandle and NNW TX. There are a couple of outflow boundaries across C and S OK that trail back in the TX Panhandle. Expect semi-early development this afternoon, say 2pm as we start to approach max heating. Scattered storms should develop along these boundaries. Due to the moisture in the atmosphere, a lot of these supercells will be high precipitation and would quickly cause a tornado to become rain-wrapped which would make it hard to see. Also, large hail and damaging winds are in order. The most likely area for tornadic development is the E TX panhandle W, SW, and C OK from afternoon through evening. Stay weather aware today!

[venture]

Things are not very clean cut today. HRRR showing storms firing over south central ok by 2pm and elsewhere in central ok by 4pm. Things should lift north quick and mostly stick to northern ok. Then it has and mcs develop over ks and drops into north central ok by 10pm and drops southeast...mainly impacting ne ok. Not sure how accurate this forecast is right now.

The boundary over central/southern ok is washing out pretty fast, but could still impact things later. Main show looks to be well out west as it stands now.

[Bunty]

Speaking of northern Oklahoma, watch the changing weather at ad free http://stillwaterweather.com

[venture]

Tornado Watch run down. We have had 3 confirmed in Northern OK so far for today.



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED
TO MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SW AND S CNTRL KS INTO
PARTS OF SE KS AND NRN/NERN OK LATER THIS EVE AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS
AND SLIGHTLY VEERS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND CONTINUED
EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING SW KS. MOIST LWR
TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT /PER 00Z OKC RAOB/ AND MODEST EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WLY 700-500 MB FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. WIND THREAT MAY
INCREASE RELATIVE TO OTHER SVR THREATS LATER TNGT IF STORMS EVOLVE
INTO A SQLN/QLCS...AS MIGHT OCCUR GIVEN CURRENT CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS NOW ENTERING S CNTRL KS FROM THE DDC AREA.



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

DISCUSSION...WIND PROFILES INVOF TSTMS FORMING ALONG ARCED NW-SE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IN SW KS/NW OK APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR LOW LVL MESOS/TORNADOES GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
PREFERENTIALLY ESE TO SE ALONG BOUNDARY INTO OK...WHERE OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO THREAT ALSO MAY
INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS EVE THROUGH MID/LATE EVE IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/NW TX...AS LOW LVL SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL CYCLE AND TO CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF NM UPR IMPULSE/BELT OF
30-40 KT WLY 700 MB FLOW.

[venture]

HRRR's latest run shows complex over South Central KS will start to move SE some and could impact NE OK. Supercells in the Texas PH will move into SW OK before dying out in the next few hours. Metro impact look very low right now.

[ou48A]

New severe storms are developing in SW and western OK
Gary England says they will move in the direction of the metro…

[venture]

I'll be monitoring the chat room for most of the evening incase things get crazy to the SW.

[ou48A]

Tornado moving in on the Medford area.

[venture]

In the chat now...large tornado north near Medford. New warned storm to our SW.

[ou48A]

Maybe a rain-wrapped Tornado now heading into the Deer Creek, Nardin, and Blackwell areas.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested tornado watch outline update for wt 215 nws storm prediction center norman ok 950 pm cdt mon apr 30 2012 tornado watch 215 is in effect until 200 am cdt for the following locations okc015-017-019-027-031-033-037-049-051-063-067-073-081-083-085- 087-099-107-109-111-119-123-125-133-137-010700- /o.new.kwns.to.a.0215.120501t0250z-120501t0700z/ ok . Oklahoma counties included are caddo canadian carter cleveland comanche cotton creek garvin grady hughes jefferson kingfisher lincoln logan love mcclain murray okfuskee oklahoma okmulgee payne pontotoc pottawatomie seminole stephens txc077-485-487-010700- /o.new.kwns.to.a.0215.120501t0250z-120501t0700z/ tx . Texas counties included are clay wichita wilbarger

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...WW
212...WW 213...WW 214...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL COMPLEX IN SW OK EXPECTED MOVE/DEVELOP E OR
ESE THROUGH EARLY TUE AS LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY
VEER IN RESPONSE TO PASSING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS. QUALITY OF
MOISTURE...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND 30+ KT WLY 700 MB FLOW
SUGGEST A CONTINUED RISK FOR A FEW LOW LVL MESOS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WIND. FARTHER N...SUSTAINED MOIST SLY FLOW
SUGGESTS THAT OTHER STORMS MAY FORM SW OF CURRENT N CNTRL OK
SUPERCELL COMPLEX. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY EWD...AFFECTING AREAS FROM ENID S AND SE INTO THE OKC AND
STILLWATER AREAS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO AN MCS.

[ou48A]

If you know anyone in the Blackwell ok area who may already be in bed or doesn’t pay attention to the weather you may consider calling them about this Tornado

[ou48A]

Tornado is just west of I-35 along HY11
Very strong radar tornado signature

[venture]

From the chat here is a comment I just made...

Storm to the SW of the Metro in Caddo Co is starting to move SE and has a good gust front with it...so outflow dominant and almost zero chance of a tornado.

[venture]

Like discussed earlier...MCS formation is well underway. Northern storms will continue to form a severe MCS and move through NE OK. Comma head circulation will likely continue and sporadic tornadoes will remain possible. Outflow boundary is extended out ahead of it from just south of the circulation so most of the southern portion is all outflow dominate.

Southern storms continue to do random things. Small bow complex in Caddo/Comanche Counties was move SE and is now moving more east. This could post a thread to areas from Norman on south. Strong winds and some hail possible. The second portion of the SW OK storms is intensifying especially right along the Red River. Radar hail estimates over 3.50" now showing up and damaging winds/strong rotation also being detected.

Between the two complex we have seen some showers try to develop and fill things out. Winds of 55 mph is possible with these.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1132 pm cdt mon apr 30 2012

the national weather service in norman has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern cleveland county in oklahoma...
Extreme northern grady county in oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern mcclain county in oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in oklahoma...
* until 1215 am cdt
* at 1131 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists
detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size
hail and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. This storm was
located near minco...moving northeast at 30 mph.

* locations impacted include...
Moore...bethany...mustang...warr acres...tuttle...
Minco and valley brook.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1157 pm cdt mon apr 30 2012


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Extreme north central cleveland county in oklahoma...
Lincoln county in oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in oklahoma...
Extreme northern pottawatomie county in oklahoma...


* until 1245 am cdt


* at 1154 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists
detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size
hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was
located near choctaw...moving east at 35 mph.


* locations impacted include...
Choctaw...harrah...spencer...mcloud...jones...nico ma park...
Meeker...wellston...
Warwick and aydelotte.

[venture]

Things today look a bit quieter. Will get the may thread posted this evening with a few more tweaks to the info displayed. Slight risk possible next two days.