May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SoonerDave]

Went by "venture" around here.

Yup. I had some contact with him and had a really very loosely discussed a possible software project I might help him with, but that was about the time he got his other opportunity.

[Bunty]

PDS tornado watch incoming for western and central Oklahoma.

Tornado watch in yellow until 11pm. Orange means severe thunderstorm warning. Red means tornado warning.

[C_M_25]

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

[soonerguru]

Went by "venture" around here.

Yeah that dude was the best.

[bison34]

The cap has really hurt OKC getting rainfall, all year, for the most part. Seems to breakdown too close to OKC for storms to hit OKC, but can go into eastern Oklahoma and dump 5 inches of rain in 2 hours.

[soonerguru]

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

Which ones?

[jn1780]

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

South central storms are saying screw that cap. Don't know what will happen up north though

[SoonerDave]

South central storms are saying screw that cap. Don't know what will happen up north though

Well, the CAP may *inhibit* development but it won't necessarily prevent existing storms from moving in. It may put a dent in their strength, however.

[C_M_25]

Interesting that news 9 is actually taking commercial breaks right now.

[yukong]

Interesting that news 9 is actually taking commercial breaks right now.

I was just thinking the same thing. Clearly they are not concerned as usual.

[C_M_25]

Storms really struggling when pushing east.

[C_M_25]

LLJ set to get stronger over the next hour or so. Just don’t know if these storms can hold together.

[SoonerDave]

LLJ set to get stronger over the next hour or so. Just don’t know if these storms can hold together.

Yeah the LLJ is clearly the big remaining X-factor

[C_M_25]

Jeez. These storms are just straight up dying.

[crimsoncrazy]

So for the people more in the know. What causes these storms to just die on these supposedly “perfect” conditions?

[C_M_25]

Strong cap in place and a weak low level jet.

Is this going to be yet another day with perfect conditions and a pds tornado watch where we see limited-to-no tornado development?

[SoonerDave]

Big storm with pretty decent hook getting ready to cross the OK/TX border toward *maybe* Marietta

[C_M_25]

Those cells developing back behind this first round will be something to watch. They’ll be able to take advantage of the LLj.

[C_M_25]

So strange how the same places keep getting hit over and over this year (NW Oklahoma around Fairfield)

[John1744]

I feel like someone in the past has mentioned News9 has some kind of thing where if there is not a active Tornado Warning in their viewing area they aren't supposed to go wall to wall but I very well could be misremembering.

[SoonerDave]

So strange how the same places keep getting hit over and over this year (NW Oklahoma around Fairfield)

I've always held but cannot prove with data that there's a pattern established early in the season for storm movement that we don't begin to understand.

[Bunty]

Strong cap in place and a weak low level jet.

Is this going to be yet another day with perfect conditions and a pds tornado watch where we see limited-to-no tornado development?

At least the NWS predicts new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible for OKC tonight. For Stillwater, NWS has it at less than a tenth of an inch possible. Unlike last time, it looks like the rain will bypass Stillwater. Don't mind it in the least if being bypassed also includes big hail and a tornado. But the night is still young.

[C_M_25]

Storms are trying to linger in central ok but just can’t get going. Think the cap strengthens after nightfall too.

[PoliSciGuy]

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

[jn1780]

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

Atmosphere is too worked up. Not seeing it happening.