General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[venture]

Last push moving through now. The isolate light precip for the rest of the night.

[warreng88]

The wife and I are driving back from Auburn, AL starting Monday morning. On our way here, we took the northern route and stayed overnight in Memphis. Due to weather, I suggested we take the southern route, stay in Shrevport Monday night and travel through Dallas on Tuesday, then north. Any idea when and where we could see problem areas?

[venture]

The wife and I are driving back from Auburn, AL starting Monday morning. On our way here, we took the northern route and stayed overnight in Memphis. Due to weather, I suggested we take the southern route, stay in Shrevport Monday night and travel through Dallas on Tuesday, then north. Any idea when and where we could see problem areas?

Based on weather advisories alone, I would say take the southern route.

[venture]

With this storm gone, on to the next. GFS has locked in on a potential long duration precip "event" starting overnight into Saturday morning. Basic timeline looks like this...

Saturday AM - Light Rain
Saturday PM - Snow NW to NE. Mix to Rain rest of OK. Changing overnight to snow Northern half, Mix Central and South Central, and rain SE.

Sunday AM - Mix SE and SW. Snow NW. Dry elsewhere.
Sunday PM - Snow I-40 and north. Mix I-40 and south.

Monday AM - Mix South of I-40.
Monday PM - Snow North, Mix South.

Tuesday AM - Snow North and Central.
Tuesday PM - Drying out.

The following system is projected to come in around March 2nd starting off at rain that afternoon changing to a mix overnight and eventually all snow by Tuesday morning ending overnight into Wednesday.

Still lots of things in play that will change, but at least we are getting precip and things aren't burning down.

[Anonymous.]

Next weekend's storm looks fun. GFS always gets a little crazy claiming multi-day events. Then 4 days out or so it consolidates to something normal.

I am just glad to see a pattern change. Even having a shot at winter precip is much better than bone dry and cold.

[Bobby821]

With this storm gone, on to the next. GFS has locked in on a potential long duration precip "event" starting overnight into Saturday morning. Basic timeline looks like this...

Saturday AM - Light Rain
Saturday PM - Snow NW to NE. Mix to Rain rest of OK. Changing overnight to snow Northern half, Mix Central and South Central, and rain SE.

Sunday AM - Mix SE and SW. Snow NW. Dry elsewhere.
Sunday PM - Snow I-40 and north. Mix I-40 and south.

Monday AM - Mix South of I-40.
Monday PM - Snow North, Mix South.

Tuesday AM - Snow North and Central.
DryingTuesday PM - out.
The following system is projected to come in around March 2nd starting off at rain that afternoon changing to a mix overnight and eventually all snow by Tuesday morning ending overnight into Wednesday.

Still lots of things in play that will change, but at least we are getting precip and things aren't burning down.

Venture are the days at the top the ones concerning this coming up weekend of Feb 21st? and then another system for March 2nd? or is the above you are talking about for the March 2nd storm?

[venture]

Venture are the days at the top the ones concerning this coming up weekend of Feb 21st? and then another system for March 2nd? or is the above you are talking about for the March 2nd storm?

First set starts this coming Saturday the 21st.

[Soonerman12]

yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Soonerman12]

nooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Soonerman12]

wow!

[Soonerman12]

Sorry guys an idiot at my work thought he would be funny and log into my account and post comments.

[venture]

Next weekend's storm looks fun. GFS always gets a little crazy claiming multi-day events. Then 4 days out or so it consolidates to something normal.

Or it just nearly eliminates its impact on Oklahoma...like the last 2 runs now. LOL

[Bobby821]

Or it just nearly eliminates its impact on Oklahoma...like the last 2 runs now. LOL

I wonder why it keeps getting us all excited then pulls the carrot away where we cant get it?

[venture]

I wonder why it keeps getting us all excited then pulls the carrot away where we cant get it?

This is how forecast models work. One little change somewhere upstream can alter how things play out several days down the road. This is nothing new and why I don't bother getting excited until we are closer with significant run to run consistency.

[Anonymous.]

The two GFS runs early this morning were straight comical. There was literally a donut hole of snowfall surrounding OK.

This is the kind of winter we have had, just can't catch a break and get a nice moisture dumping.

[venture]

Saturday could be our first day for some marginal severe weather for the year.

[Soonerman12]

The 27th-28th looks like something... for now. It'll likely change since it's still over a week away. I'm just glad to see our pattern has got more active.

[Anonymous.]

This weekend looks like it could be nice moisture with some storm chances, and then a shot of wrap-around snow on the way out.

Next week, the 25th-28th is starting to become more consistent with a winter storm. The speed and location of the low's track right now are finally favorable for main body of OK.

[s00nr1]

12Z GFS paints a nasty picture for mid-end of next week. COLD.

[Bobby821]

12Z GFS paints a nasty picture for mid-end of next week. COLD.

Nasty as in just COLD or Winter precip nasty? fingers crossed here...

[zachj7]

Did anybody else see wet flakes yesterday in OKC at roughly 5-6 PM with a temp of 49F? It was pretty insane.

[s00nr1]

Nasty as in just COLD or Winter precip nasty? fingers crossed here...

Both scenarios are currently in play though I wouldn't get caught up too much in specifics this far out.

[Anonymous.]

GFS has been consistent with the storm for the 25th timeframe. Right now it is very doomsday.

[s00nr1]

Here is an entirely too early snowfall forecast via the GFS:



Our internal ECMWF running with a similar solution:

12pm Thursday


Midnight Friday

[BoulderSooner]

Please come true