Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Anonymous.]

WSWatch issued for nearly the entire state of KS and all of NE.

[ou48A]

Long Range models keep the storms rolling in all the way through early March.

In fact, next week there is indication of a winter event followed by the coldest air we have seen in a long time in the first week of March.

Thanks,,,,, keep them coming….

Mike Morgan just showed 3 chances of moisture over the next week.
If we could average an inch a week out of these storms it would really help.

[OKCTalker]

Washed my car this weekend. I'm doing my part!

[Anonymous.]

Washed my car this weekend. I'm doing my part!

I did the same... It was a requirement for all the salt and snow debris, though.

[venture]

You know...one day I want a forecast that all the models agree on...no complications...and it is either straight snow or rain. Alas...

Two different forecasts here since NAM and GFS hate each other and are in the middle of a nasty spat I guess. Remember precip types are all based on upper air soundings focused on Norman.

12Z NAM Discussion

Midnight - 3AM Weds: Precip moves into across the SW 1/2 of OK. Surface temps around 40 with upper air temps showing a chance of rain/snow mix (maybe even all snow that will - should - melt on contact). Precip will be < 0.1" total.

3AM - 6AM: Band of "heavier" precip will run from NW OK through east sides of Metro area to SE OK. generally 0.1 to 0.2" of precip...not a lot. Lighter amounts back to the west of that area, dry to the east. Upper continues to be borderline of either rain, a rain/snow mix, or wet snow. Surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. NAM showing accumulating snow restricted to extreme NW OK and less than 1" there.

6AM - 9AM: Much of the same in the precip coverage layout, though heavier now along the Red River valley (0.2 to 0.4" there) since around 0.1 to 0.2" in the NW to SE band. Looks like mostly snow NW and NC OK still. Surface temps still upper 30s around here, near 30 up north. Upper air over us still a bit tricky. Things go above freezing from 2500' down to 1500' and then right at freezing until about 700'. So could see some sleet mix in.

9AM - 12PM: Precip coverage increases and starts to fill in. Still some pockets extreme NE, NC, and SW that will see light precip or none during this time. Rest of the area a general 0.1 to 0.2"...which higher amounts SC and SE OK up to 0.3 to 0.4". NAM showing snowfall accumulating from NC through Eastern OK now along the initial band. Surface temps still struggle to get out of the mid 30s. For us, still a narrow layer of below freezing (after going above freezing) upstairs so sleet is still possible.

12PM - 3PM: Looks like 0.1" to 0.2" of precip roughly north of an Ada to Pauls Valley to Woodward line. Less than a 0.1" south of that. Dry far NE. Snow continues North central through parts of Eastern OK. By this time NAM is showing 1-3" around Stillwater and 3-6" from Perry to the border. No real change at the surface temp wise. Upper air profile for us still goes very warm and then below freezing for a bit, though it is very shallow now so should stay all rain. Should.

3PM - 6PM: Mostly light precip for much of the state now except far NC and NE OK...around 0.1 to 0.2" up there. Surface temps stuck in the 30s. Upper air showing still a chance for some sleet around here. Snow further north.

6PM - 9PM: Still some light stuff around. Copy the last 3 hours.

9PM - 12AM Thurs: Mostly light precip still state wide. All less than 0.1" except far west. Around here looks like light rain/sleet is the rule.

12AM - 3AM: Main push starts to come through. Light to moderate precip west of I-35, light to dry East. Amounts looks 0.1" to 0.3". Temps will be warm through just above the surface. So looks like mostly rain, but a risk at freezing rain as surface temps will be flirting with freezing.

3AM - 6AM: Line pushes east over I-35...generally 0.1 to 0.2", higher NC. Looks mostly rain, but can't rule out a mix. Mostly snow NW.

6AM - 9AM: Main precip shield starts to clear out, covering just right along I-35 and east now. Some minor wrap around far NW. All rain for us...now that it is ending. LOL

That is it for the NAM review. Total precip could get close to an inch. Any winter precip...who the heck knows. GFS up next...

[venture]

Okay so the GooFuS. This model has been latched on to the colder solution with more winter precip for days now. So here is the look at this one.

12AM to 3AM Weds: Precip moves in to the SW OK. Up to 0.1" of precip far SW, light NW and SC. It is showing accumulating snow west of I-35 and south of I-40 from a dusting to 1" far SW.

3AM to 6AM: Precip moves up through much of Oklahoma. 0.1-0.2" around Central to SW and SC OK. Surface temps mid 30s. Upper air show freezing through 1500' and then above, so maybe wet snow/rain mix. It does show up to 1-2" at this point for much of the area south of I-40 and west of McAlester.

6AM to 9AM: Precip shield now covers much of the area from Altus to Perry to Tulsa. Generally 0.1" to 0.4" along the Red River. Naturally GFS likes snow and keeps things below freezing through 700' and then above freezing.

9AM to 12PM: Moderate precip back along and south of I-40, east of Altus. Around 0.1 to 0.4". Surface temps are going to be near freezing at this point, so this shows pretty much all Snow, maybe some sleet or gaupel.

12PM to 3PM: Main band falls apart, still around 0.1" from OKC along I-40 to the east. Looks like mostly sleet and snow, but not a lot.

3PM to 6PM: Light scattered precip. Nothing major. Looks like it'll be light sleet/freezing drizzle/drizzle.

6PM to 9PM: Light higher area of precip far east. Otherwise continues light freezing drizzle and sleet around.

9PM to 12AM Thur: Main front coming through now, moderate precip from NW OK back to the SW into the TX PH. Light elsewhere. Looks like freezing drizzle still there for us.

12AM to 3AM: Heavier Precip far SW (0.5 to 0.75") and light amounts NW up to 0.4". Still showing freezing drizzle/drizzle around here.

3AM to 6AM: GFS dry slots Central OK, but keeps moderate precip going from Clinton up to the NE into NC OK. All rain here if there is any around.

6AM to 12PM: Drying out fast, some light drizzle left behind, but not much.

[venture]

So looking at these two the general theme is that there will likely be some mix precip around here and not just all rain that is current in the forecast. Though the models could be completely wrong, which I wouldn't doubt, it is still something to keep in mind. The main push of warm air doesn't happen until the main system starts to move in early Thursday, so this setup seems plausible.

Advisory wise, with the way both of these are acting I would think we could see some winter precip headlines for the Northern Counties. Not so much around here, unless the sleet/freezing rain seems more apparent. Ground temps will keep most things in check I would imagine.

[Anonymous.]

This is a massive storm.

It is going to be a really crazy sight to see the snowfall literally go up to around a foot as soon as you crossinto KS over the OK/KS border.


Wish we could get in on the snow play, but I will take this cold rain as well.

[OKCisOK4me]

This bodes well for a pro oSu crowd for Wednesday nights big game!

[SoonerDave]

So no real practical chance all this winter nastiness might slide south and beat up on at least north central OK?

[venture]

So no real practical chance all this winter nastiness might slide south and beat up on at least north central OK?

Norman is updating this forecast now and is drastically changing things. Officially they are going with the winter mix/snow for the Northern 2 tiers of counties til Weds Afternoon and then transitioning to all snow/sleet south to just north of a Seminole - Purcel - Lawton line.

[Anonymous.]

Models are teasing at slipping N Central OK into the heavy snow amounts.

I think looking at temperature profiles, this is plausible - even into NE OK.


Another tough forecast for OK. Up in KS and NE they know it's going to be snow. OK mets always get the tricky jobs!

[venture]

The little multimedia discussion put out by Norman here a few minutes ago mentions significant accumulations over North Central OK. So I wouldn't be shocked to see Winter Storm Watches put up for the northern 2 rows of counties. There is almost going to have to be some sort of blending on advisories seeing what is going on in KS and AR right now.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, but N AR and S MO are mainly in WSWatch for a potentiallly siginificant ice event.

[SoonerDave]

OK mets always get the tricky jobs!

And that's why they get the big bucks, right?

[venture]

Yes, but N AR and S MO are mainly in WSWatch for a potentiallly siginificant ice event.

That is true.

[kelroy55]

I may need to go see my friends in Kansas so I'll have some snow to play in this year.

[Anonymous.]

Check out this probability forecast for significant icing:

[Anonymous.]

Winter Weather Advisory for north central and Winter Storm Warning for NW OK.


OKC is in the winter weather advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

OKZ007-008-011>020-024>026-200530-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0004.130220T1200Z-130221T1800Z/
GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...FAIRVIEW...
ENID...PERRY...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...C LINTON...
WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKO N...EL RENO...
MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER
327 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH TO 4
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET... AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME LOCATIONS
MAY CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[silvergrove]

Ugh, I was planning on driving to Stillwater on Wednesday for that Robert Ballard lecture too...

[OKCisOK4me]

Ugh, I was planning on driving to Stillwater on Wednesday for that Robert Ballard lecture too...

Screw that, drive to Stillwater and hang out in the elements with the hope of scoring tickets to the biggest game in years at oSu!

[venture]

I know I don't like midday runs, but whatever. LOL

18Z runs are a bit colder still. NAM is a bit more reasonable with snowfall amounts I think and keeps things reasonable. It also brings the initial accumulating band more so over Central OK.

GFS is more aggressive now with snow fall amounts. Through Midnight Thursday, it is putting a wide area of 3-6" over much of OK with 1-2" NE and SW. Heavier amounts over 6 inches over NW OK in the Winter Storm Warning area. Looking at amounts increase over Northern OK through the first part of Thursday where areas could see a total (not in addition to) over 6-10".

Temps will warm through Thursday that will speed up melting, but precip will also be mostly done so we won't see melting from rainfall.

The first round of advisories look good. I think we'll eventually see Winter Storm Warnings stretch across Northern Oklahoma a bit more. Winter Weather Advisories may very well get extended further south depending on which model proves true.

[venture]

So the quick local media run down...

Gary / KWTV - A bunch of everything.

Rusty / KOCO - Mostly rain until Wednesday night

Mike / KFOR - 4"+ snow for OKC

At least they are as varied as the models are.

[SomeGuy]

I wonder if there is any other significant weather events in the coming week?

[ZYX2]

The winter weather advisory has shifted further south and east now.