OKC/Will Rogers Air Service Discussion

[BG918]

people in western OK can drive to Lawton. I believe they have 6 flights a day to DFW on American.

My relatives in Duncan and Altus use Lawton's airport. They say it's really easy to get in and out of and the non-stop to DFW provides all the connections they need. Did Lawton not also have a Delta non-stop to Atlanta? I also thought Enid had non-stop service to Dallas. I know Liberal/Guymon has a non-stop to Denver on United that serves the Panhandle/SW Kansas.

[BPD]

Enid and Ponca City lost air service in August 2006, and have had none since.
Article: Enid, Ponca City flights to end. | AccessMyLibrary - Promoting library advocacy

[venture]

Lawton did have service to Atlanta for a short time. They won a grant from the Small Community Air Service Development program a few years back and attracted Delta to operate the route. Once the funds ran out though, Delta was still in the red and dropped it.

[SkyWestOKC]

United and Continental are rumored to announce a merger on Monday.

The combined brand would be United, being run by Continental execs, based in Chicago -- Houston, TX Continental HQ would be closed.

What this means for OKC:

Note, this is my speculation:

United would have the opportunity of having the most gates in OKC of any airline currently here: 4. Gates 3, 5, 9, and 10. This is assuming, however, that United would choose to obtain both of Continental's gates. At minimum, they will probably obtain 1 of CO's gates, but I think the combined operation would require 4 gates (morning departure push, evening arrival rush - mid day would work on 2-3 gates).

Routes:
LAX - Los Angeles, CA
DEN - Denver, CO
IAD - Washington Dulles, VA
IAH - Houston Intercontinental, TX
EWR - Newark, NJ (New York)
ORD - Chicago O'Hare, IL


I expect the Cleveland hub (which we do not have service to anymore) to be closed, the IAD hub is still iffy - but I think it will stick around.

This would also bring out a good chance for an SFO (San Fransisco) nonstop to take place, as more resources would be available.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on the subject. I have a friend who works for CO at OKC, I will see if he knows anything good after Monday.

[HOT ROD]

yep, United (my fav) will become the world's largest airline again.

Unlike AA, United doesn't just swallow up an airline and downsize. I agree with you that IAH and EWR would just get absorbed into the new United network, since there was little overlap to begin with. The only thing i hate about the deal is Glenn Tilton would remain as Chairman (uggh - he doesn't really care that much about the airline business - but on that note, I guess it is nice he will not be CEO anymore).

But I could see some shifting in responsibility between EWR and IAD with regard to Europe; just like United does on the west coast with SF and LA. On the west, SF is the hub but LA is the international gateway; I suspect IAD would be the hub with EWR as the international gateway (then, what about JFK. ....?).

I agree that this opens up the opp for OKC to get at least 1 non-stop flight daily to each hub and probably more mainliners since IAH traffic would likely shift to less domestic almost immediately.

I do agree that CLE is gone. But Im not really sure why it was a hub to begin with. I see ORD as the biggest winner though, because there likely would be some strengthening there to take advantage of Ohare's Modernization plan - to better compete with Delta.

Maybe in the future we might see reductions at IAH (at least from it's current configuration, but IAH would definitely be the latin american gateway), EWR (assuming IAD remains UAL's primary European/African hub), and DEN; but all three should still remain important.

I do have a question though, what happens to Continental Micronesia?

[venture]

I think this pair up makes sense with IAD/EWR being the big question mark. UAL hasn't shown much interest in IAD until after the 23rd merger attempt with US failed. Congestion wise, IAD has little compared to EWR - so that is a huge plus. EWR though has the more vast network currently. They can probably make them both work for now. Heck, US had PIT, PHL, DCA, BWI, LGA, and BOS with large focus city to hub sized operations going all at the same time for awhile. Then of course oil prices went crazy and yeah...anyway.

The one thing I'm waiting for is what US is going to do. The most likely, and expected, movement for them to do is announce a switch to One World and rekindle the code-share relationship with AA. I don't think they would ever consider merger, but I guess it isn't out of the realm of possibility. In that scenario though PHL and PHX hubs are drawn into question while CLT has a nice future ahead. PHL would probably see some right sizing or balancing with the operation at JFK. PHX...would probably be on the way out and America West falls into the history books much like PSA did (I guess AirCal too since we are talking AA being involved here).

So that takes care of the original Top 6 legacy carriers...pairing them down to 3. That leaves Southwest, AirTran, JetBlue, and Alaska for the top 10. JetBlue is linking with American, but not merging...so that takes care of them. Alaska is everyones friend, so they won't really do much. Southwest seems to be the odd man out right now, but we'll probably see continued evolution of their model over the next 10 years (read: smaller aircraft type for more cities). AirTran is the interesting one left.

I have this feeling that there is something brewing between AirTran and Republic. It could be when Frontier goes public, that AirTran moves to picks them up and they merge or at least a more extensive code-share with anti-trust immunity could be in the works. Republic is also a wild card of their own, because they could easily pull an Atlantic Coast/Independence Air switch since they already have their own branded operation (Frontier). The dominate the E-Jet feed market for the majors right now and could easily redeploy those on many new markets under the Frontier brand. One last off the wall thought would be Republic acquires US Airways next and merges all their brands together as well as stops flying for other majors. However, I think the US unions have that place pretty well screwed up for the next 20 years...so doubt that'll happen. Unless they find a way to get US to lose about $2 billion so they can do another Ch11 filing and acquire that way.

[chrisok]

Although the writing has been on the wall with this merger for some time now, the fact it looks like it is going to happen disappoints me. As a loyal Continental flyer, I hate to see the name go away, even though most reports say CO management will be running the airline. Personal feelings aside, it will be interesting to see the effect the merger has on OKC.

I agree that CLE hublet is the most vulnerable. Traffic there is heavily O/D, with some overflow from EWR. IAD would appear the logical choice as reliever for EWR, which isn't going anywhere. As annoying as that airport can be, it is massively important for the Star Alliance.

It'll also be interesting to see what happens regarding the two pilots contracts. CO has a VERY strict scope clause which limits regional jet seating to 50 seats (ergo the ERJ 145s) United can fly bigger regional jets (ERJ 170 and the CRJ 700). This resolution could have a fairly significant impact on OKC.

Continental Mike is a wholly owned subsidiary of CO, so I'd guess it's part of the merger.

[Oil Capital]

how many seats is offered from Lincoln?

Not sure how many seats are offered at Lincoln, but they just had a study done that told them they are losing roughly 900,000 passengers a year, mostly to Omaha. That is more than the difference between Omaha's traffic and OKC's.

The consultants also made the point that ""People are driving from Hastings and Kearney right past this [Lincoln's] airport to [Omaha]." So, to the extent you are adding western OK to OKC's market, you also have to add a good deal of Nebraska to Omaha's (plus parts of Iowa and possibly South Dakota.)

[OUman]

A couple of points:

Lawton-Ft. Sill is serviced by American Eagle, not American, and with a combination of ERJs and ATR turboprops. I'm sure those who have to connect through DFW anyway and want to avoid flying in either of those planes would prefer going to OKC and taking an MD 80 instead.

I think Cleveland Hopkins International will become to the United/Continental merger what Memphis Shelby County Int'l has becme to DL/NW, with its regional hub status intact. The City of Cleveland and Continental/Express have already invested heavily in Hopkins.

Calling IAD's status as iffy is like saying DL will shut down the ATL hub-not gonna happen. The hub is one of UA's strongest, many international dignitaries use it, not to mention thousands of local travellers, connecting passengers and tourists. There is no way BWI and DCA (Reagan National) can handle the 40+ million/yr passenger traffic that IAD handles today. The airport has invested heavily in new concourses, renovation of existing ones, a new underground people mover and a new extension to the international arrivals building.

[venture]

Just some clarification since facts seem to be out of whack a bit...

1) LAW-DFW is all 64-seat ATR-72s now to provide some extra lift and operate the route with a lower cost aircraft. About time if you ask me. Granted over the next 5 years, we'll probably see far fewer 50-seat jets and more of the efficient turboprops again...finally.

2) CLE is a tough one, but you aren't win this on the investment argument. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati all invested a TON of money into their hubs and that didn't save anything. UA/CO doesn't need a reliever airport in between EWR/IAD/ORD. That's almost going back to the old US hub setup and people blasted them about it. CLE is the odd man out here and will get scaled down to a focus city if anything.

3) IAD =! ATL. I have no idea where you pulled the 40 million number from besides the air. Only one airport in the US pushes out 40+ million a year...Atlanta (BTS | Summary 2009 Traffic Data for U.S and Foreign Airlines: Total Passengers Down 5.3 Percent from 2008). Dulles last year put through 16.3 million passengers, 6.2M of those on United. To compare...Reagan National had 16.7M and Baltimore (BWI) around 20.7M.

IAD has never been a strong hub for United. To compare...Chicago they put out 16.9M, Denver 14.8M, LAX 6.9M, and San Francisco 10.1M. Again, airport investment means nothing. Other hubs have been scrapped after such revitalization programs. Plus we are also talking about a merger here...Newark will become it's second gateway in the Northeast. A hub that Continental now puts through 11.4M people a year.

[BG918]

Wow, we have seen some major shifts in airline industry in the past 15 years. First TWA merges with AA, then Northwest merges with Delta, now Continental with United. That leaves those three as the major player in domestic/international traffic with Southwest the lone major low-cost domestic. I see Jetblue, Frontier, and Airtran getting bigger in the near future. What happens to US Airways?

[venture]

Wow, we have seen some major shifts in airline industry in the past 15 years. First TWA merges with AA, then Northwest merges with Delta, now Continental with United. That leaves those three as the major player in domestic/international traffic with Southwest the lone major low-cost domestic. I see Jetblue, Frontier, and Airtran getting bigger in the near future. What happens to US Airways?

Southwest isn't even low cost anymore. Their Q1 2010 CASM (cost per available seat mile) was 11.39 cents. Continental's was 11.44 cents, JetBlue's came in at 9.62 cents, and US Airways was 12.13 cents...to give some examples.

Consolidation will continue as costs continue to go up but passengers expect to pay less. Also because how you use to the word "major" when it comes to the airline industry. The official definition is an airline that has more then $1B in revenue is a major...which includes more than you think. For passenger airlines that includes AirTran, Alaska, American, American Eagle, Atlantic Southeast, Comair, Continental, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, SkyWest, Southwest, United, and US Airways.

US Airways is going to be the interesting play in this. Doug Parker (US CEO) is a guy that likes consolidation. However, the primary partner United is no longer possible. I still think US bolts to One World and does a domestic code-share with American. JetBlue will continue to grow with the ERJ-190s. AirTran and Frontier I think will integrate more than is known now and become a strong domestic low fare power house. Of course that all comes down to what Brian Bedford (Republic's CEO) and Republic want to do.

[Oil Capital]

Just some clarification since facts seem to be out of whack a bit...

3) IAD =! ATL. I have no idea where you pulled the 40 million number from besides the air. Only one airport in the US pushes out 40+ million a year...Atlanta (BTS | Summary 2009 Traffic Data for U.S and Foreign Airlines: Total Passengers Down 5.3 Percent from 2008). Dulles last year put through 16.3 million passengers, 6.2M of those on United. To compare...Reagan National had 16.7M and Baltimore (BWI) around 20.7M.

Yeah, the 40M number for Dulles is clearly wrong, but I'm pretty sure it was meant as total passenger, not just departing passenger. But even then, it was way wrong.

Now, as to your numbers, not sure where you pulled them from, besides the air... Dulles last year served a TOTAL of 23.2 million passengers, down 2.8% from 2008. Reagan served 17.6 million, down 2.5%. Passengers at Reagan, Dulles airports decline for 2nd year - washingtonpost.com

http://www.metwashairports.com/file/pr2010_02_03.pdf

Of course, contrary to OUMan's assertion, there is no reason Reagan and BWI would have to absorb 40 million passengers from Dulles. (1) as already mentioned, Dulles does not serve anywhere near 40 Million per year. (2) It's not as if Dulles would be shut down, or even all of United's flights eliminated. (3) A good number of the passengers at Dulles are merely connecting to another flight (that's the function of a hub). Those passengers will not need to be accommodated at any Washington area airport, Dulles or otherwise.

[venture]

Now, as to your numbers, not sure where you pulled them from, besides the air...

RITA | BTS | Transtats

All the numbers were pulled from the DOT, which I would imagine doesn't include international passenger numbers considering the discrepancy and the numbers state "US Flights".

[OUman]

Just some clarification since facts seem to be out of whack a bit...

1) LAW-DFW is all 64-seat ATR-72s now to provide some extra lift and operate the route with a lower cost aircraft. About time if you ask me. Granted over the next 5 years, we'll probably see far fewer 50-seat jets and more of the efficient turboprops again...finally.

Ok, so it's all ATRs now. Back as recently as January Eagle actually did have a few ERJ 135s, but it does seem more of the tertiary cities like Lawton will get all ATRs in the future.

2) CLE is a tough one, but you aren't win this on the investment argument. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati all invested a TON of money into their hubs and that didn't save anything. UA/CO doesn't need a reliever airport in between EWR/IAD/ORD. That's almost going back to the old US hub setup and people blasted them about it. CLE is the odd man out here and will get scaled down to a focus city if anything.

Focus operation, which is what MEM will soon become as well.

3) IAD =! ATL. I have no idea where you pulled the 40 million number from besides the air. Only one airport in the US pushes out 40+ million a year...Atlanta (BTS | Summary 2009 Traffic Data for U.S and Foreign Airlines: Total Passengers Down 5.3 Percent from 2008). Dulles last year put through 16.3 million passengers, 6.2M of those on United. To compare...Reagan National had 16.7M and Baltimore (BWI) around 20.7M.

I stand corrected on the total IAD passenger traffic, you are right, it's not 40+ million/yr, I read it incorrectly on the Metro Wahsington D.C. airports page site for IAD traffic as outbound only, when they were giving it as the total. Although United had 9.4 + million last year at IAD: http://www.metwashairports.com/file/dpsp1209ye.pdf

IAD has never been a strong hub for United. To compare...Chicago they put out 16.9M, Denver 14.8M, LAX 6.9M, and San Francisco 10.1M. Again, airport investment means nothing. Other hubs have been scrapped after such revitalization programs. Plus we are also talking about a merger here...Newark will become it's second gateway in the Northeast. A hub that Continental now puts through 11.4M people a year.

Well, United is expanding nonetheless at IAD; Kuwait City, Bahrain (via direct service through Kuwait City), Moscow, Geneva are all destinations United has recently added. Plus Ghana, Accra was launched yesterday from IAD. Does that mean nothing also? We'll see.

As far as DCA and BWI being able to handle Dulles' passengers, that may be done through significant enhancements to terminal facilities at both airports, but the types of aircraft that Dulles handles daily, without significant airfield enhancements, nope. I'm talking about the plethora of international widebodies that descend to IAD daily. Plus, DCA has no room for expansion of its airfield. It's done as far as runway lengthening goes.

[venture]

Ok, so it's all ATRs now. Back as recently as January Eagle actually did have a few ERJ 135s, but it does seem more of the tertiary cities like Lawton will get all ATRs in the future.

There are plenty of Eagle stations that really wouldn't mind getting the ATRs back. Especially when it means a net gain in seats per day, lower operating costs for that station, and an overall improvement in profitability of the station.

Focus operation, which is what MEM will soon become as well.

There hasn't been any indication of further reductions at MEM. They are very happy with the way the hub is setup. MEM has seen an overall increase in service since the DL took over.

I stand corrected on the total IAD passenger traffic, you are right, it's not 40+ million/yr, I read it incorrectly on the Metro Wahsington D.C. airports page site for IAD traffic as outbound only, when they were giving it as the total. Although United had 9.4 + million last year at IAD: http://www.metwashairports.com/file/dpsp1209ye.pdf

Well, United is expanding nonetheless at IAD; Kuwait City, Bahrain (via direct service through Kuwait City), Moscow, Geneva are all destinations United has recently added. Plus Ghana, Accra was launched yesterday from IAD. Does that mean nothing also? We'll see.

As far as DCA and BWI being able to handle Dulles' passengers, that may be done through significant enhancements to terminal facilities at both airports, but the types of aircraft that Dulles handles daily, without significant airfield enhancements, nope. I'm talking about the plethora of international widebodies that descend to IAD daily. Plus, DCA has no room for expansion of its airfield. It's done as far as runway lengthening goes.

Yeah the BTS/DOT stats don't include any international traffic in their numbers, so it kept everything pretty even when comparing.

United really has had much of a choice but to add the additional international lift there. It is all going to come down to what they do post merger. Continental execs are running the show, so they may see another path be more viable. I think you are also missing the point here. IAD is a hub...with a lot of transiting traffic. DCA by more accounts is mostly O&D with some connecting through the US "hub" they have there. BWI more connecting that DCA and a little closer to IAD. There will still be use for IAD when it comes to having an international entry point for the capital area. However, UA/CO will be able to divert a significant amount of traffic back up to EWR should they desire.

[chrisok]

Was glad to see the CO livery sticking around.........


Here's the new website.
Let's Fly Together

[venture]

I personally don't think the CO livery will last much past merger. It is a bone to throw to the CO employees that they are still the ones running the show. However, the United name just looks awkward on the fuselage. It is about time for something a bit more updated and fresh for CO...maybe it'll happen eventually.

[chrisok]

Just keep the Death Star on the tail......

[HOT ROD]

it is NOT United unless it has the tulip on the tail. I personally like and prefer United's livery moreso than Continental's rather boring "corporate" design. United is really the airline of the United States. In fact, many people I meet/talk to during my international travels think United is the flag carrier of the US.

United is quite the ambassador for the United States when those fluffy blue/white tulips are seen around the globe. I often see non-North American people actually taking pictures of United planes as they are walking/connecting.

I like United's blue/white tulip tails, I hope their livery continues and lives on.

[Oil Capital]

it is NOT United unless it has the tulip on the tail. I personally like and prefer United's livery moreso than Continental's rather boring "corporate" design. United is really the airline of the United States. In fact, many people I meet/talk to during my international travels think United is the flag carrier of the US.

United is quite the ambassador for the United States when those fluffy blue/white tulips are seen around the globe. I often see non-North American people actually taking pictures of United planes as they are walking/connecting.

I like United's blue/white tulip tails, I hope their livery continues and lives on.

Sorry, that ship has sailed.

[venture]

If anything maybe they'll spend the money with Landor or some other marketing firm to design a new scheme over time. I can see where they would be able to bring various elements of both CO and UA's scheme together...but it does look like the tulip is dead. However, if they go down this road at least it won't be a rush internal job of mashing schemes together like they did with US and America West.

[SkyWestOKC]

March 2010 stats:

http://flyokc.com/releases%5CMarch%2010%20Activity.pdf

Analysis: Through July I expect passenger numbers similar to this, with us in consecutive break even or positive territory (0+% MTD for at least 2 months in a row) by the end of this year.

Wiley Post broke positive ground on airport operations, seeing an increase of 0.51% over March 2009 totals.

April statistics should be available mid-later this month.

[sgray]

Sorry, that ship has sailed.

...but it does look like the tulip is dead.

I don't see how you dismiss the issue. Unlike most folks here, I have actually worked for United, so I know a little bit about the culture within the company.

This issue WILL be up-front and center should United settle for the combined branding as it is now. United has strong, current, and simple branding. While Continental's is not bad, it is outdated, unappealing, and has no life to it (read: color). LOOK AT THAT FONT!!! BLEH!!


I saw the current proposed logo in the press conference the other day and it made me want to puke!


I predict they will settle for something that involves more than Continental's current logo and United's name.

[MikeOKC]

See this? The New United-Contintental Logo: Flying a Little Too Close Together | Fast Company