Electric Vehicles

[jedicurt]

yes, by 2030, i think full EV's will be a majority of what is sold, and then second will by hybrid vehicles. pure ICE vehicles will be a smaller and smaller chunk of cars being sold each year at that point.

[Just the facts]

This is demonstrably false.

You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars
Science has repeatedly shown EVs are better for humans, despite the meme you just retweeted.

Lots of IFs in that article - the biggest one being that EV owners are going to drive their EV forever. No manufacturer wants their car lasting forever.

[Just the facts]

Almost 1/2 the people in California live in one type of multi-family housing or another. California is going to have to abandon their EV-only dream.

[jedicurt]

Lots of IFs in that article - the biggest one being that EV owners are going to drive their EV forever. No manufacturer wants their car lasting forever.

? i'm not sure you and I read the same article.

[Pete]

EV's are being approached from two different directions: 1) Legacy ICE manufacturers starting to add them to their lineups; and 2) startups like Tesla and many others that are really tech/electronics companies.

#1 has a big current advantage in terms of manufacturing and dealer infrastructure. But I strongly believe that will turn into a big disadvantage down the road.

The new frontier is all about innovation and being adaptable and getting out in front of things. Tech companies are much better suited for this sort of thing and can easily find someone to do the manufacturing of the big, non-techie parts. Assembly is easier than ever as well with even the big current car companies using a ton of automation.

It won't be long until the tide turns and we get a really good charging infrastructure and then absolutely everything is going to be working against ICE manufacturers. And soon the protectionist laws in place that benefit the existing and antiquated dealer network will be torpedoed just like protectionist import laws met the same fate.

They are getting close to having wireless charging pads in your garage, much like smartphones. Kia is piloting a charging station that connects to your car without having to get out of your seat (beats the crap out of filling up in an Oklahoma winter). As with all new tech, the skies are the limit and there is so much money to be made, innovation will continue to handle any existing challenge.

[jedicurt]

Almost 1/2 the people in California live in one type of multi-family housing or another. California is going to have to abandon their EV-only dream.

those people aren't buying brand new cars already... they are buying used. and the 2035 EV mandate in California only affects new car sells, not the used market.

[fortpatches]

Lots of IFs in that article - the biggest one being that EV owners are going to drive their EV forever. No manufacturer wants their car lasting forever.

I didnt see anything where it said EVs will be driven forever. I saw date ranges of like less than 2 yrs for break-evens.
>So even if you sign just a two-year lease, by the time you turn in your EV, it has released less CO2 than the equivalent ICE vehicle.

[Pete]

Almost 1/2 the people in California live in one type of multi-family housing or another. California is going to have to abandon their EV-only dream.

This issue will be resolved simply because there are so many people who live in multi-family units everywhere. Way more common in Europe and Asia than the U.S.

Technology always answers the market need and in ways no one could ever predict.

[fortpatches]

Almost 1/2 the people in California live in one type of multi-family housing or another. California is going to have to abandon their EV-only dream.

How are these two things related? Why can someone in an apartment not use an EV? My apartment in Kansas City provided EV parking with free charging 6 years ago. Is there a reason why the apartment complexes in California cannot provide EV chargers like other places do?

[Pete]

And again, this is about selling new cars vs. owning them.

No state or country is going to force people who currently own ICE vehicles to throw them away.

[Just the facts]

So what does California tell people living in multi-family - buy a used car or move?

[Ryan]

It seems that one of the most difficult parts of participating in an on-line forum is in sticking to the topic of the individual threads.

With that in mind I thought it would be interesting to see how a conversation progressed without the topic being central to the discussion and just see where things go on the own momentum...like a normal conversation does.

So I'll get it started with this.

Every legacy automobile company has now tipped at least a toe into the EV market. Some dove in head first without even checking how deep the water is. Personally, I don't think the EV market is very deep and see it as nothing more than a nich market, that is rapidly becoming over crowded.

This leads me to ask 2 questions. 1) Which legacy manufacturer will abandon the EV market first. 2) Which EV manufacturer will be the first to build a car with an internal combustion engine?

Ford recently announced that they lost $2 billion last year on their EV operations and expect to lose $3 billion this year. They don't project a profit for several more years. Due to investor criticism Ford has changed their financial reporting model to single out profit/loss by business unit. This has made them the only legacy manufacturer that publicized the losses on EVs.

Since then Ford has come under pressure to spin off their EV production into its own company. I think Ford will do that and become the first legacy company to abandon EV.

Conversely, I think it will only be a matter of time before the first EV manufacturer introduces a gasoline engine into their offerings. I just don't know which one that might be.

Not sure it’s going to happen like that. 5 years ago if anyone saw a Tesla they would’ve been stupified. Now I can’t leave the house without seeing several. I know several owners of them. Considering the trend as is, EV market will only grow. There’s a tendency to be hostile towards EV’s around here. That makes the EV market even stronger elsewhere. Everywhere else. I don’t foresee any legacy manufacturers getting out of the market. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them all step on the gas (pun intended)

[jedicurt]

So what does California tell people living in multi-family - buy a used car or move?

they don't tell them anything. the people themselves decide which option works best for them. if that's to buy used, this it is, if it's to scrap up enough to buy an ev, then they will. and if they choose to move, they will..

[Pete]

So what does California tell people living in multi-family - buy a used car or move?

The current plan is that by 2035 all new cars sold would have to be zero emissions.

You would still be able to operate and resell ICE cars after that date.


And things like this are put out all the time as a goal to get things moving in a particular direction. There is always compromise and changes.

[Pete]

Besides all this, EVs are just better.

They are faster, have a ridiculous amount of instant torque, fewer moving parts... And we're just getting started, basically taking conventional ICE designs and putting in some batteries. Manufacturers like Canoo are starting with a blank sheet of paper and producing actual machines that are rolling answers to questions like: Why do we even need a hood? It's thrilling to think about where this all may lead.

Considering that ICE vehicles have been around for a century and EVs have really only been mass-produced for a decade, the fact the two are even close in price and usability shows how quickly the scales are going to tip.

Look, I love cars as much as anyone. I grew up dreaming of fast cars with huge V-8's. But there is a better way and we are moving very fast toward it.

[David]

I can remember being told by a certain someone on this board a half decade ago (or maybe a bit more) that the US was going to balkanize into city states by a date that I'm pretty sure has already come and gone. These EV industry failure predictions are going to be wildly wrong in a very similar way.

[Just the facts]

I actually don't like cars period. I would rather luve 8n a world without them to the extent possible. I'm simply looking at this from a practicality and scalability issue.

What market problem is the EV revolution trying to solve?

[Pete]

The other thing you have to consider is autonomous driving technology.

The idea that every American household needs 2 to 10 cars is pretty absurd since all cars sit stationary for about 98% of their existence.

Once we get to fully autonomous tech (and we are getting very close -- it's already being used in some cities for taxis) then that could change everything. Why pay to have a car sit in your garage or in your employer's parking lot all day? Just hail a vehicle that takes you where you want to go and then it leaves to get the next rider. It would also drastically reduce parking needs which gobble up half our cities.

And EVs are far better suited to this bigger vision. Easier to maintain, electronics are at the heart and soul of the entire vehicle.

It's such a bizarre thing to think that a car gives you freedom. Really, the opposite is true. So much expense and hassle and needing a garage and parking and then worrying about where you leave it until you come back. And, the time you spend driving is completely wasted. You can't do anything else but listen to music. I used to love to commute to downtown L.A. on the train because I read a ton and also got a lot of work done.

[Just the facts]

I can remember being told by a certain someone on this board a half decade ago (or maybe a bit more) that the US was going to balkanize into city states by a date that I'm pretty sure has already come and gone. These EV industry failure predictions are going to be wildly wrong in a very similar way.

Yeah, I think the prediction was something other than 50 US States. The date was wrong by the trajectory is certainly there. National Divorce has a pretty high desirability rate.

[Just the facts]

Don't get me started on fully autonomous cars. That is never happening.

[jerrywall]

Besides all this, EVs are just better.

They are faster, have a ridiculous amount of instant torque, fewer moving parts... And we're just getting started, basically taking conventional ICE designs and putting in some batteries. Manufacturers like Canoo are starting with a blank sheet of paper and producing actual machines that are rolling answers to questions like: Why do we even need a hood? It's thrilling to think about where this all may lead.

Considering that ICE vehicles have been around for a century and EVs have really only been mass-produced for a decade, the fact the two are even close in price and usability shows how quickly the scales are going to tip.

Look, I love cars as much as anyone. I grew up dreaming of fast cars with huge V-8's. But there is a better way and we are moving very fast toward it.

Man, as a car nut, and someone who has raced for 20+ years and owns multiple muscle cars, this has been a hard reality to accept.

[fortpatches]

So what does California tell people living in multi-family - buy a used car or move?

Again, what is your specific question about?

California has had a law on the books for 8yrs to address this - methods to provide EV chargers to renters.
Law section (ca.gov)

Plus, cities like Kansas City have many chargers throughout the city. Apartment dwellers could charge while running into the store for groceries, getting a manicure, or buying their infamous avocado toast. Even the parking garage for the Social Security office in Kansas City had like a dozen charging stations available.

There are also charging stations setup like gas stations, where you just drive up and charge.

I am really unsure where your confusion is coming from.

[Pete]

Man, as a car nut, and someone who has raced for 20+ years and owns multiple muscle cars, this has been a hard reality to accept.

It has been for me, too. It's like having to finally accept that modern automatics are just way better (and considerably faster) than a manual transmission, and I've owned 5 different cars with stick-shift.

I have read Car & Driver and Motor Trend cover-to-cover since I was about 13 years old. I still do, just online.

And even THEY see how things are already better and will soon be much more so.

[fortpatches]

It's such a bizarre thing to think that a car gives you freedom. Really, the opposite is true. So much expense and hassle and needing a garage and parking and then worrying about where you leave it until you come back. And, the time you spend driving is completely wasted. You can't do anything else but listen to music. I used to love to commute to downtown L.A. on the train because I read a ton and also got a lot of work done.

I loved taking public transit when I lived in DC. I could read a book, work on homework, etc. on the metro instead of having to drive. Plus, the metro costs were less than what the parking space alone would cost, let alone that additional costs of a car payment, gas payment, and insurance payment. Plus, when you were out drinking, it was cheaper to take the metro home than an Uber and absolutely no fear of anyone in your party trying to drive when they shouldn't.

[jerrywall]

It has been for me, too. It's like having to finally accept that modern automatics are just way better (and considerably faster) than a manual transmission, and I've owned 5 different cars with stick-shift.

I have read Car & Driver and Motor Trend cover-to-cover since I was about 13 years old. I still do, just online.

And even THEY see how things are already better and will soon be much more so.

Shhh. I still manage to convince my wife I need to buy standards and then grab a short throw performance shifter on them, to be able to compete at the track. If she finds out the automatics will outperform a short throw, I'll lose that excuse.