May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Bunty]

Much of northeastern Oklahoma now under a tornado watch. Tulsa and Bartlesville are on the west side of it. Northeastern Oklahoma is on the tail end of a strong line of storms that extend up to southern Minnesota. Maybe it will back build to OKC area.

[Bunty]

In Stillwater, looking south at the very tail end of the storm line in northeast Oklahoma that extended NNE clear to Minnesota shortly after 5pm. It was never able to back build to the southeast part of the OKC metro.



Facing east this time toward the storm line. It was in the Tulsa area at the time. As of 6pm, there was a tornado warning for Mayes County east of Tulsa. Hopefully, things don't get too bad in this far extending storm line. But IA looks especially hard hit. Greenfield, IA looks like another Sulphur.

[BG918]

Slight risk area is more SE OK today then covers most of the state Thursday. Saturday could also see a risk of statewide severe weather. Next week looks to be mostly quiet before another system moves in closer to 6/1-2

[crimsoncrazy]

Will Rogers hasn't recorded an inch of rain on any one date since October 24.

[jn1780]

Hopefully Saturday will be it for the season at least for the higher end tornado threat.

[C_M_25]

Dealing with deviating models again. The HRRR is showing a single large supercell not all that dissimilar from the other day which is pretty concerning. The high res NAM is showing a large outflow boundary out of Texas that wipes out all storm chances for us today. That seems extreme but we have seen it happen before.

[SEMIweather]

The thick cloud deck combined with nebulous forcing leads me to believe that today won’t be too bad.

Saturday, on the other hand, is starting to look very serious.

[SoonerDave]

The thick cloud deck combined with nebulous forcing leads me to believe that today won’t be too bad.

Saturday, on the other hand, is starting to look very serious.

Semi, I was just looking at the NAM through Saturday and it isn't showing *anything* in OK Saturday, but this is in sharp contrast to the language I just read from SPC. Is this just a matter of the models not catching up yet?

[SEMIweather]

Semi, I was just looking at the NAM through Saturday and it isn't showing *anything* in OK Saturday, but this is in sharp contrast to the language I just read from SPC. Is this just a matter of the models not catching up yet?

My thought is that the extreme instability and relatively strong upper-level forcing should be enough to overcome capping issues. And any storm that forms will be capable of significant impacts given the volatile environment that will be in place. But stronger capping than anticipated is certainly a potential failure mode.

Meanwhile, heavy mist in Downtown OKC at the moment. Still not really seeing how we get enough atmosphere recovery for anything more than isolated activity later today. Would think the best chances today will focus across the Western 1/3rd of the state, closer to the dryline, and where there will be more breaks in the clouds. Think most of the convection will weaken relatively quickly as it approaches the Metro late this evening.

[SEMIweather]

Absolutely fantastic discussion regarding today and Saturday from NWS Norman: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx...e=202405231847

[BG918]

Dealing with deviating models again. The HRRR is showing a single large supercell not all that dissimilar from the other day which is pretty concerning. The high res NAM is showing a large outflow boundary out of Texas that wipes out all storm chances for us today. That seems extreme but we have seen it happen before.

HRRR nailed it with the single severe cell moving across the E side of OKC. Luckily it hasn’t been too bad.

[SoonerDave]

Absolutely fantastic discussion regarding today and Saturday from NWS Norman: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx...e=202405231847

So am I reading that correctly to say the Saturday threat is solidifying, but the emphasis may be slightly farther east than originally projected?

[bison34]

So am I reading that correctly to say the Saturday threat is solidifying, but the emphasis may be slightly farther east than originally projected?

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

[Hollywood]

The video on 9 is incredible.

[Bunty]

Hopefully Saturday will be it for the season at least for the higher end tornado threat.

I'm not becoming less worried until we can get past June 15th. An EF-3 tornado can cause a lot of damage. With the effects of climate change, I don't have a lot of hope there won't be an EF-4 or 5 with the heat building up.

[floyd the barber]

What a remarkable storm season.

Is there any threat tonight for he metro? The storms south west are moving slower than I have ever seen before. I have the News9 app but it does not show future radar projections.

[baralheia]

Will Rogers hasn't recorded an inch of rain on any one date since October 24.

For whatever it's worth: I am about 4 miles east of Will Rogers and I have a personal weather station. I've recorded more than 1" of rain in a single day several times since October 24th, 2023. Most notably, I recorded over 3" of rainfall on April 9th, 2024.

[C_M_25]

Checking the models and they’re really not showing anything for us for the rest of the night. It’s really strange though as the dewpoints are quite good sitting at 72. How a boundary is pushing through and we have 72 deg temps but aren’t seeing much in the way of rain is beyond me. Guess it must be a pretty weak boundary.

[TheTravellers]

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

I *wish* OKC would miss out, getting tired of having to mow more than once a week.

[Teo9969]

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

OKC has gotten quite a bit of rain and we haven't even hit June which is usually the wettest month for OKC

[SEMIweather]

SW Oklahoma storms will miss the Metro to the south (would expect that they’ll weaken fairly quickly over the next hour, as well)

[bison34]

OKC has gotten quite a bit of rain and we haven't even hit June which is usually the wettest month for OKC

I think the airport has gone well over 6 months without an inch of rain. With a switch to La Nina coming, OKC needs to stockpile rain for the dry summer and fall coming up.

[BoulderSooner]

I think the airport has gone well over 6 months without an inch of rain. With a switch to La Nina coming, OKC needs to stockpile rain for the dry summer and fall coming up.

lol just over 11% of the state is in a drought .... a year ago it was 50% .. and nothing outside the northwest corner is in a drought ..

[SEMIweather]

Friendly reminder not to panic over a single model run (in this case, the 12z HRRR), but rather, treat it as an example of the high-end potential that tomorrow has and a reminder to stay weather aware as a result. Would guess that the SPC will extend the 10% hatched tornado risk into the Metro at the 12:30 p.m. Day Two update. Don’t think they’ll upgrade past that at this time as the potential for a cap bust is still very apparent (for example, the 12z 3km NAM doesn’t convect over the state at all).

Also, as an FYI, this evening will be absolutely gorgeous and possibly one of our final time periods without humidity until autumn. So, it’ll be a great opportunity to get outside if you’re not a fan of the summer heat.

[bison34]

lol just over 11% of the state is in a drought .... a year ago it was 50% .. and nothing outside the northwest corner is in a drought ..

Doesn't change the fact that the next 3 months or so, plus La Nina coming in, will wreak havoc on OKC.

That number will change drastically by July.