General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[venture]

Ugh, right around when I plan on traveling as well. Would the precipitation on Monday be icy for north Texas? I also plan on driving to Nebraska on Tuesday, how are conditions up further north?

If you take the 12Z GFS as it is...Red River counties will be freezing rain or a mix. Nebraska on Tuesday looks dry...this is mostly a southern system.

[ouamber]

I agree completely with Shreveport's NWS.....no consistency with the low placement. The low went from Shreveport LA or New Orleans....that seems fishy to me!

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR. IN
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS TRACKED THE SFC LOW GENERALLY ALONG THE
RED RIVER BETWEEN OK/TX KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT AND DELAYING ANY WINTRY PRECIP UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. TODAY...THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS BUT THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS STILL TO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SMALL LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THESE
FEATURES CAN RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS
A LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. /09/

[bchris02]

With severe weather there really isn't any way to predict the season. 2013 started out very quiet and would have been if not for the three day systems that brought us the May 20th and May 31st tornadoes. I remember 1999 being fairly quiet other than the May 3-4 outbreak. All it takes is one outbreak to make it a memorable year. It does seem like it goes in cycles. The mid 1990s were relatively quiet and then it was very active in 1998 and 1999. It was then quiet in 2000 through 2002 before a very active 2003. 2004-07 were unmemorable years and then starting in 2008 things really cranked up, each spring being pretty active through 2013. Hopefully we are within a stretch of quiet years but like I said there isn't any way to really predict it.

[OKCisOK4me]

2007 was memorable for rain. I think that was the year we had 58" or something.

[venture]

GFS staying south with the 00Z run.

[Anonymous.]

Well GFS has nearly dissolved this entire storm at this point. Trying to hang onto the wave of precip Sunday night into Monday.

Maybe NAM will shed some light as to what is happening as it comes into forecast window.

[OKCisOK4me]

And it could just as easily come back, right? That's still 4 days away.

[ouamber]

The 00Z Euro still has something...

http://i.imgur.com/Q1cmvSa.jpg

[Anonymous.]

Yea 4 days is a long time. GFS has gone from 'full blown southern plain snow event' to 'maybe a mixed goodie bag with initial wave' in about 36 hours.

GEM and Euro still hanging onto hope. NAM will be viable very soon and obviously monitoring changes in the GFS.


I have a feeling everytime one of those Canada lows drops down across the Great Lakes and then rides up the NE coast for epic blizzards, it affects us in the southern plains dramatically in terms of how quickly lows are pulled east.

[venture]

12Z NAM, GFS, and GEM are pretty much all on the same page at this point. Quick shot of precip overnight Sunday into early Monday and then dry. Snowfall wise...solutions are anywhere from a dusting for Central and Eastern OK, to maybe a couple inches. Nothing more than that really showing up now.

[jn1780]

Morgan scared off the storm with his hype yesterday.

[Achilleslastand]

This season so far has been one big fail as far as winter storms go, maybe they should quit the hype train and just forecast these things 36-48 hours out.

[ouamber]

Ukie and Canadian models are holding strong and telling the GFS it's out to lunch...

12Z Ukie Precip Totals...mix sleet/snow/freezing rain/rain

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/uk...0-072_0000.gif


12Z Canadian Snow Totals....

http://i.imgur.com/DIiCPN9.png

[ultimatesooner]

any potential issues for someone who is driving to St. Louis on Monday morning from OKC?

[venture]

Ukie and Canadian models are holding strong and telling the GFS it's out to lunch...

12Z Ukie Precip Totals...mix sleet/snow/freezing rain/rain
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/uk...0-072_0000.gif

12Z Canadian Snow Totals....
http://i.imgur.com/DIiCPN9.png

Just a side comment...where in the world did this stupid "Ukie" nickname come from for the UK model? I see a couple use it on A/W and I have no idea why, but it just comes across like nails on a chalkboard. LOL

Okay about the models. So what we essentially have are GFS, NAM, ECMWF vs. UKMET and GEM. Historically I throw away anything GEM says unless every else is on board and UKMET can be out to lunch majority of the time. I'll reserve further judgement until we get closer and if there is a sudden snap back. There just aren't any signs of it yet. Some of the 12Z are still processing, so we'll see.

[jn1780]

This season so far has been one big fail as far as winter storms go, maybe they should quit the hype train and just forecast these things 36-48 hours out.

Its really annoying when their giving driving condition forecasts and not spending much time on the actual storm system.

[OkieHornet]

Its really annoying when their giving driving condition forecasts and not spending much time on the actual storm system.

sidenote, yesterday i heard damon lane talk about how the temp inside your car today would feel like 70-80 if you had your windows rolled up. so there's that added forecasting bonus now ;–)

[Anonymous.]

12Z brought the low slightly further north than the last day of runs.

The 18Z that just came in for GFS has the storm notably further north and gives pretty much the entire Red River to Dallas region a good dumping of snow.


These crazy inconsistencies from run-to-run is why you have to watch this thread pretty much multiple times a day. So asking about drives and conditions 3 days out, will most likely warrant a poor result; however, I understand getting a general feel.

[shavethewhales]

This has been a frustrating winter through and through. I need a snow day dammit. But at this point I'll take any precipitation. The maybe/maybe it wont/ and then finally bust in the forecast is getting old.

[venture]

Winter Storm Watch up for South Central and Southeast OK for freezing rain/sleet accumulations. Looks like part of the Metro (SE of I-44) mostly likely to see any type of advisory put up for this.

[Easy180]

Winter Storm Watch up for South Central and Southeast OK for freezing rain/sleet accumulations. Looks like part of the Metro (SE of I-44) mostly likely to see any type of advisory put up for this.

So whatever the heck it will be does this look like a Sun night into Mon morning then done type of event?

[venture]

So whatever the heck it will be does this look like a Sun night into Mon morning then done type of event?

Mostly. However, NAM is showing snow coming through late Monday into Tuesday behind the system.

[venture]

NAM and GFS pretty well lined up now. GEM even got in line as well. Main show tomorrow evening through early Monday and then maybe some scattered flurries on Tuesday if anything. At this point i'm expecting Winter Wx Advisories for counties along/east of I-44 to go out tomorrow morning. SE OK probably more specific FRZ RN Advisories.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory up for all but the Western 1/3rd and 3 counties in far NE and SE OK. Snow appears to be confined to the Northern 3rd of the advisory area the rest will be sleet and freezing rain.

[Anonymous.]

Newest NAM has a decently heavy precip. band developing overnight somewhere parallel with I-44 (puts the band north of I-44). Depending on where it sets up, could have some decent amounts of sleet/ice/snow.

Looks like models picking up another storm for the end of this week. This first storm will determine a lot for the next.