OKC/Will Rogers Air Service Discussion

[dmoor82]

That's some good info/data. Thanks.

Wow. I'm really surprised about Omaha's passenger counts. That's almost a million more than Will Rogers. Their 2008 metro population numbers are around 850,000, well below our 1.2 mil.

Obviously their population takes to the skies more than people here. Another tidbit of info that shows we need to grow our business sector (finance, technology, banking). If we're successful with building businesses such as this, those employees require travel - ergo, more flights and more mainline planes.

^^ Lincoln is just SW from Omaha and has 250,000 people as well!Also Omaha's bigger numbers might be because it is the only "major" airport around? because I think you guys are forgetting that TUL is a stones throw away!and also forgetting That The powerehouse known as DFW is just South!I dont know- just throwing this out there!

[mugofbeer]

That's some good info/data. Thanks.

Wow. I'm really surprised about Omaha's passenger counts. That's almost a million more than Will Rogers. Their 2008 metro population numbers are around 850,000, well below our 1.2 mil.

Obviously their population takes to the skies more than people here. Another tidbit of info that shows we need to grow our business sector (finance, technology, banking). If we're successful with building businesses such as this, those employees require travel - ergo, more flights and more mainline planes.

Omaha is a smaller city than OKC but has a larger number of corporate offices than OKC. More corporate executives = more business traveling.
Here's an article that outlines that fact:

USATODAY.com - Omaha sprouts unlikely cash crop: Corporate titans

[venture]

People that want more air service either through more destinations, flights, or larger planes always seem to forget the corporate requirement. To get those things you need high yielding traffic. People will to pay to fill up the front of the cabins, when they are available, or the higher priced tickets. The more bargain chasing a community does the faster they will see service levels drop. As stated...Omaha has a larger corporate setting than OKC, hence more service. Austin has a much larger corporate base and higher paying jobs, hence more service.

Until we see OKC attracting companies that are going to high hundreds of people paying $35-50k a year at least, not much is going to happen.

[ljbab728]

Oh, they aren't bad - better than the prop jobs which were acceptible. It's more a perception/pride issue that an NBA level city can't qualify for full size jets. Plus, flying through storms or landing in Denver's ever-present turbulence can be an adventure in the smaller planes.

Unless someone wants a first class section, I've never seen the big attraction for the larger jets. I've always enjoyed flying in commuter jets. They load and unload very fast making connections much easier if you're in the back of the plane. If you're checking in luggage, it's more likely that the luggage will make a connecting flight. The main drawback would be the smaller overhead bins. I feel just as safe in the smaller jets and I've never experienced any major turbulence problems even though I know that could happen.

[venture]

Unless someone wants a first class section, I've never seen the big attraction for the larger jets. I've always enjoyed flying in commuter jets. They load and unload very fast making connections much easier if you're in the back of the plane. If you're checking in luggage, it's more likely that the luggage will make a connecting flight. The main drawback would be the smaller overhead bins. I feel just as safe in the smaller jets and I've never experienced any major turbulence problems even though I know that could happen.

People really need to get over the the phobia from RJs and props. Most props seat between 30 and 72 seats now. They offer pretty decent comfort (Dash 8s particularly), speed close to that of the RJs, and the operating costs are significantly less. As far as RJs...what is an RJ really. We've had "mainline" jets before that didn't seat over 80 people...Fokker 28 and DC-9-10. The Embraer E-Jet series is seating 70-110 people now. The new Bombardier C-Series will be 80-130 seats. The lines are so blurred now, people should just be happy with the level of air service they receive. There are dozens of other cities that would love to take it away if we don't want to use it.

[ljbab728]

People really need to get over the the phobia from RJs and props. Most props seat between 30 and 72 seats now. They offer pretty decent comfort (Dash 8s particularly), speed close to that of the RJs, and the operating costs are significantly less. As far as RJs...what is an RJ really. We've had "mainline" jets before that didn't seat over 80 people...Fokker 28 and DC-9-10. The Embraer E-Jet series is seating 70-110 people now. The new Bombardier C-Series will be 80-130 seats. The lines are so blurred now, people should just be happy with the level of air service they receive. There are dozens of other cities that would love to take it away if we don't want to use it.

I agree. I have customers who totally freak out if they aren't booked on a large jet. I don't argue with them because it's pointless. Making the customer happy comes first.

[HOT ROD]

OKC has 1.3 million now, not 1.2.

But I do agree, OKC has MUCH more competition than OMAHA - which severely hurts OKC's pax numbers. but if I recall correct, OKC had 4million pax a year prior to the economic slowdown (not sure what year that was); but just saying - our population alone generally keeps OKC in play.

If we added corporate base and people stop driving to DFW - I think it would be even larger. Also don't forget - we have a train that goes down daily to one of OKC's business market cities (only 4 hours); so that eats a few potential butts in the aircraft seats.

But I think the biggest reason for OKC's rather smaller traffic is 1) DFW, only 200 miles away 2) competition from TUL and ICT, they usually have lower air fares except to the pacific coast (OKC has the advantage there) 3) Corporate base

How Omaha compares to OKC's handicaps:

Omaha doesn't have a top 5 international (US) airport 200 miles from it. The closest is Chicago O'Hare, at least 400 miles away; MCI is close but isn't a top international airport and really doesn't offer much more than OMA does (so there's no reason for business people to drive the short distance (unlike OKC/DFW). ..

Omaha doesn't have regional competition either AND Omaha has a larger catchment area (as in All of NE, W. IA, and parts of NE KS).

Omaha has a slightly larger corporate base - actually, but this base that Omaha has is FINANCIAL; OKC's base is Energy. This means OMA flights are required to go to Chicago (MKE is only 70 miles away from downtown Chicago). Notice how many non-stop flights OMA has to Chicago - definitely their largest market city and given the frequencies of flights, you know those are 'suits' on those planes and not as many families. ...

No doubt, without these flights - OMA would lose those finance jobs. DSM similar, just Insurance for them.

Also notice OKC's flight selection: we have more markets/coastal presence. OMA just has 1 flight to the DC area, but OKC has at least 2 (IAD and BWI). OMA has no LAX flight, whereas OKC has 2 dailies.

So I conclude from this: Omaha has bigger numbers despite OKC being 53% larger due to 1) no large scale competition, 2) Corporate base that requires frequent flights 3) it doesn't have any regional competitors (and no in-state competition).

If we can increase our corporate presence in Finance (doesn't need to be a hq, just need more jobs in the financial sector), encourage existing business/leisure customers to use OKC instead of driving to DFW, and somehow establish a lower price point than competing regional cities - then OKC would be able to enjoy much larger numbers than OMA.

I dont see TUL or ICT going away (but I do see them remaining smaller than OKC), so our opportunites are increasing corporate/business that requires travel AND encouraging existing corporate base and leisure to use WRWA.

[chrisok]

People that live in the OKC metro aren't flocking in mass numbers to DFW, TUL, ICT, or AMA. However, if you live southern OK, why wouldn't you go to DFW? You can fly non stop to just about anywhere from there. Unless you are flying to a hub, you can't do that in OKC. I just don't see this changing, well, ever.

As far as regional jets are concerned, I guess I've gotten used to them. There are a few a I try to avoid like the plague.(The devil's chariot...CRJ-200/700 come to mind) To me, there's not really much of a stigma associated with RJ's anymore. You see RJ's going to major cities all the time. Last year, I flew almost 200,000 butt in the seat miles, all domestic or Canada, and almost 70% of my flights were on RJ's.

It's been said before, but it's worth repeating. To get mainliners, you are going to give up frequency. The airlines are not going to fly half empty planes. Airlines have been cutting capacity across the board, and the trend is going to continue at least until the Delta merger and the probable Continental/United merger get ironed out.

By the way, flew in/out of IND this week. This was my second trip through there since they've opened the new airport. I'm still impressed. Wow! What a facility.

[khook]

My favorite airline was Jet express because of their use of small jets. Too bad they were only in the market for a short time.

You had to go outside to enter but they loaded everyone fast and unloaded fast. Plus it allowed the line to fly direct to the markets it was serving instead of having to stop somewhere on the way. So the flights were all direct flights. Was able to fly to Calif. via jet express to meet up with a friend whom was flying a different airline. He had to be the the airport 2 hours ahead of me and landed 1 hour after I had arrived.

[venture]

My favorite airline was Jet express because of their use of small jets. Too bad they were only in the market for a short time.

You had to go outside to enter but they loaded everyone fast and unloaded fast. Plus it allowed the line to fly direct to the markets it was serving instead of having to stop somewhere on the way. So the flights were all direct flights. Was able to fly to Calif. via jet express to meet up with a friend whom was flying a different airline. He had to be the the airport 2 hours ahead of me and landed 1 hour after I had arrived.

Express Jet, whom you are referring too, couldn't make any money with that branded operation so yeah...unfortunately they got rid of it. It definitely helped to get some service into cities that didn't exist before, but the market wouldn't let them charge the fares needed to make money. They are still the primary feeder for Continental and have recently put 20 aircraft in the United Express program.

[venture]

OKC has 1.3 million now, not 1.2.

But I do agree, OKC has MUCH more competition than OMAHA - which severely hurts OKC's pax numbers. but if I recall correct, OKC had 4million pax a year prior to the economic slowdown (not sure what year that was); but just saying - our population alone generally keeps OKC in play.

If we added corporate base and people stop driving to DFW - I think it would be even larger. Also don't forget - we have a train that goes down daily to one of OKC's business market cities (only 4 hours); so that eats a few potential butts in the aircraft seats.

But I think the biggest reason for OKC's rather smaller traffic is 1) DFW, only 200 miles away 2) competition from TUL and ICT, they usually have lower air fares except to the pacific coast (OKC has the advantage there) 3) Corporate base

So I conclude from this: Omaha has bigger numbers despite OKC being 53% larger due to 1) no large scale competition, 2) Corporate base that requires frequent flights 3) it doesn't have any regional competitors (and no in-state competition).

I dont see TUL or ICT going away (but I do see them remaining smaller than OKC), so our opportunites are increasing corporate/business that requires travel AND encouraging existing corporate base and leisure to use WRWA.

I trimmed your post a bit in my response. Couple points.

Here are the stats for OKC over the last 10 years:
RITA | BTS | Transtats

We never hit the 4 mil passenger mark yet. So still some work to go.

OMA definitely has an advantage not having to compete with a major regional airport nearby. I don't really think they get all of NE because that would be an insane drive for the far western section. Those areas are more than likely handled by EAS service on Great Lakes to Denver. As far as OKC goes. I think TUL and ICT definitely play a factor. For the people who are in Stroud or further east probably chose Tulsa...maybe even as far as Chandler. Either way, they will look at price and then also how long it takes them to get to the airport. ICT is a different animal as they attract people with Allegiant and AirTran with the low cost service. If OKC could get Allegiant back and secure AirTran, it would be a non-issue.

I really think the amount of draw to DFW is a bit over done. This isn't a major situation where we have a setup like those areas in the Midwest with the major hubs close to other medium sized cities. In those areas, the medium cities have well below average air service due to having a 50-90% leakage rate of their passengers. Here, I would guess OKC looses around 10% to surround airports with DFW having the smaller piece of pie.

Essentially...OKC will get more air service when the market can support it. Either through paying higher ticket prices or the corporate population growing.

[SkyWestOKC]

SkyWest Airlines (the regional operator for United and Delta) is currently nearing (or at) full fleet utilization.

We will not see United increase our LAX service or add San Francisco until SkyWest aquires more CRJ-700's for United Express. Any increase in capacity will be forced to go to mainline, or the aircraft will be pulled from existing markets and added to those that will fill it.

I think our 2x daily CRJ-700 at LAX will stay like it is. The possibility of getting SFO is rather slim right now even though the market could support it, just like it has LAX. United doesn't want to contract another regional to go into one of SkyWest's biggest "hubs" (SFO, LAX). Keeping your contractors happy will keep you happy.

I don't think Allegiant would be too far fetched. They do maintenance here now, they have been in the market before, and they serve a unique niche.

AirTran is still a ways off in my opinion - but not in left field. As venture and I have said for a while now...seats are meant to be filled, when they can be filled, we'll get more of them.

I think a lot of the DFW/DAL leakage is over as well. We have 11 daily departures to DFW and DAL - mainline. That is roughly 1,485 seats each way.

[semisimple]

OKC has 1.3 million now, not 1.2.

Depends on where you "draw the line," as you like to put it. MSA = 1.2 million. CSA = 1.3 million.

Omaha has bigger numbers despite OKC being 53% larger

Since we're fact-checking here--evidently you used OKC's CSA number but Omaha's MSA number in your calculation:

(1297552-849517)/849517 = 0.527 = 53%

(Omaha's 2009 CSA estimate was 885,157, not 849,517.)

It's more correct to use one of the following percentages:

CSA: (1297552-885157)/885157 = 0.466 = 47%
MSA: (1227278-849517)/849517 = 0.444 = 44%
City: (551789-438646)/438646 = 0.258 = 26%

[HOT ROD]

Semi, I thought Del Camino was using OMA CSA at 850K while using OKC at 1.2M. People on here seem to often use other city's CSA but then chock up 1.2M for OKC.

I think we should use CSA and be consistent.

As for my original argument, I haven't yet seen any comments/evidence to the counter and Venture/Chris summarized it eloquently as well:

OKC has lower service not because it is small but instead because 1) the desire of frequency and 2) the desire for coastal markets.

We get rj's not because OKC is a podunk town but because 1) we have an energy dominant economy (hence mainliners to other energy cities), rj's frequently to finance cities 2) OKC has a top 5 US international airport only 200 miles away (sorry Venture, I've read there is significant leakage on many posts about people going to Dallas for shopping and flights, not to mention the train; I suspect it may be more than 10%) 3) OKC has competition in smaller regional cities (that often offer lower fares to the Eastern US).

Venture, thanks for the correction on the 4M pax number - I thought we had exceeded that finally and there was some big press announcement about it (along with the plethora of non-stop cities served) before the industry collapsed and OKC's flight capacity was drastically reduced.

Semi, you could just make it easy (like I did) and just divide OKC's CSA by OMA's CSA (then remove the 1). Nevertheless, OMA is impressive - kudos to their finance industry.

[Oil Capital]

Semi, I thought Del Camino was using OMA CSA at 850K while using OKC at 1.2M. People on here seem to often use other city's CSA but then chock up 1.2M for OKC.

I think we should use CSA and be consistent.

As for my original argument, I haven't yet seen any comments/evidence to the counter and Venture/Chris summarized it eloquently as well:

OKC has lower service not because it is small but instead because 1) the desire of frequency and 2) the desire for coastal markets.

We get rj's not because OKC is a podunk town but because 1) we have an energy dominant economy (hence mainliners to other energy cities), rj's frequently to finance cities 2) OKC has a top 5 US international airport only 200 miles away (sorry Venture, I've read there is significant leakage on many posts about people going to Dallas for shopping and flights, not to mention the train; I suspect it may be more than 10%) 3) OKC has competition in smaller regional cities (that often offer lower fares to the Eastern US).

Venture, thanks for the correction on the 4M pax number - I thought we had exceeded that finally and there was some big press announcement about it (along with the plethora of non-stop cities served) before the industry collapsed and OKC's flight capacity was drastically reduced.

Semi, you could just make it easy (like I did) and just divide OKC's CSA by OMA's CSA (then remove the 1). Nevertheless, OMA is impressive - kudos to their finance industry.

As someone else pointed out earlier, when looking at airport traffic, you really need to also include the population of the Lincoln metropolitan area (300,000), giving the Omaha/Lincoln area a total of close to 1.2 million, not far short of OKC's population. Combined with some of the other factors mentioned above (primarily the fact that Omaha has FAR fewer competing airports within 200 miles) pretty easily explains Omaha's air traffic.

It might be useful to compare OKC to some airports in a few other similarly-sized metro areas. Here are a few I looked up:

Louisville, KY: 2009: 3.2 million passengers
Richmond, VA: 2009: 3.3 million passengers
Rochester, NY: 2009: 2.6 million

[HOT ROD]

if you can add Lincoln to Omaha, I think it is only fair to add most/all of Western Oklahoma to OKC. ...

but I see your point nonetheless.

[SkyWestOKC]

Airport Trust Meeting Agenda Documents released today for tomorrow morning's meeting.

I found this interesting, it's the Strategic Land Development Plan. It coincides with the Master Plan, but it's focus is on the east side of the airport only.

http://okc.gov/AgendaPub/cache/2/r40...0012855966.PDF

Calls for Portland Ave to be relocated to the east and be made a spine road. Very interesting maps and information in there, it's a long read like all plans are. Maps are near the middle of the document. It's focus is mainly on general aviation (corporate, small aircraft, etc.), air cargo, indirect aviation, and non-aeronautical uses (nothing to do with aviation, but on airport property - located where it is impossible to make it aviation related development)

[SkyWestOKC]

http://okc.gov/AgendaPub/view.aspx?c...&fileid=877235

Link won't work, try the above.

[SkyWestOKC]

Double post - delete.

[oustud7]

people in western OK can drive to Lawton. I believe they have 6 flights a day to DFW on American.

[metro]

or Amarillo

[DelCamino]

People from the majority of western Oklahoma use Will Rogers for their airport. Lawton may work for the immediate area, and if you want to go thru DFW, but most other markets there (Enid, Woodward, Clinton, Weatherford, etc) all use OKC.

And probably, so do, east central residents such as Ada, McAlester and Seminole.

But....those places still don't add much to the idea of more flying seats for business travel.

[DelCamino]

If Lawton is going to be counted against Will Rogers' market, then Lincoln, NE can't be included in Omaha's market as some have done in above posts. They have their own airport, serviced by Delta and United.

[SkyWestOKC]

AA at Lawton is very insignifigant. 420 seats a day each way.

[HOT ROD]

how many seats is offered from Lincoln?