Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[Easy180]

That ain't good to say the least

Can't say that I have ever called in due to weather but I damn sure ain't getting into anything resembling Xmas eve 09 again...Just ain't worth it to try to score some job points

[bandnerd]

Well, I guess we can look on the bright side and say that we are getting some help with the drought...

[Roadhawg]

I can work from home as long as there is power.

[Andrew4OU]

venture - thanks so much for your updates. I've been following them ever since the Christmas Eve Blizzard in 2009. they're appreciated. with that being said, I just saw your forecasted totals for the OKC metro.

[venture]

Yeah, weather like this highlights another benefit of working from home.

[Roadhawg]

I agree with Andrew.... thanks for the updates

[PennyQuilts]

Thanks, Venture.

[venture]

00Z NAM is rolling in now...this will be our first look at the storm with a sampling of data from weather balloons and such this afternoon.

[Easy180]

Let's hope we have one disappointing balloon

[Thunder]

Maybe it will increase the snow totals....

[venture]

So about that snow shovel....perhaps a snowblower? Will wait to update total until GFS comes in later, but NAM is wetter than before...well more moisture, but its frozen in this pretty little white crystal type things that go weeeeeeeee in the wind. Ugh okay...that was creepy. More in a few. LOL NAM also appears to be speeding things up just a tad, but no major dryslot of doom like GFS yet.

[rod4soonrs]

Venture, what happened to Twitter updates?

[venture]

Venture, what happened to Twitter updates?

I haven't used it in so long, I don't think I remember the login. LOL

[venture]

So what did the NAM bring us.

Monday Evening...relatively nothing going on. Some light drizzle and rain far southeast and light snow in the western panhandle. Surface temps will be below freezing roughly northwest of I-44. Upper levels appear to be about the same.

3AM - Freezing line is a bit further east, but upper levels are lagging a bit. Some areas right along I-35 could go either way. Precip is forecast to start in SW OK and also SC into Central OK. SW OK should be mainly snow, maybe an inch, and closer to home it can go either way. Probably see a mix of snow and sleet with freezing rain remaining further east. NAM doom forecast is around 1" of snow for the Metro.

6AM - Freezing line is almost through all of OK except far eastern OK, same for the upper levels. Precip will increase a good clip here. Looks like two snow bands. One around Weatherford/Clinton that will drop 1-3" there, another closer to us that will be mainly 3-6". However, there will be a heavier section in that that could drop 6 to 10" and it looks that will setup somewhere from Tulsa to Norman to Duncan. Wind looks like 10-20mph at this point, so not insane yet.

9AM - Heavy snow band continues from Bartlesville down to Norman to Ardmore. This band can drop another 6-8" from Norman on south, and 6-12" north. Bartlesville area may see around 12". Winds still 10-20 mph.

12PM - Main snow is moving out and will be east of I-35. West of I-35 some flurries or light snow, maybe a dusting. East of I-35 roughly another 2-4" with far NE OK seeing maybe another 4-6".

3PM - Some flurries and such around, but thats about it.

So don't get fixated on specifics. Mainly just look at this as that there will be a heavy snow band someplace in the state and the exact placement won't be figured out until... Tuesday. LOL

GFS is now starting its run and will be ready in about an hour.

[Easy180]

Weather Channel is showing serious ice storm from St Louis to Indy followed by snow so I guess it could be worse

Have a few beers before the next update venture...Might help bring it back down to 4 or 5 inches

[venture]

GFS came back tamer than NAM...6-10". Will do a full evaluation in an hour or two.

[venture]

Looking at everything, I'm going to hold tight for now. I think the forecast is actually pretty good as is from when I last updated. GFS was a bit higher than I thought after looking at the zoomed in products.

Closer in look...

NAM 8-12" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlay...?STATIONID=TLX
GFS 10-15" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-ove...?STATIONID=TLX

[Thunder]

Even tho both of those models barely cover the metro with those awesome snow totals, I still do not appreciate those models leaning toward the eastern half of the state. What is with that?! Just that I notice how almost every time, the models predict the eastern half of state getting the most snow actually jinx the weather to favor the eastern half leaving us tiny bit to enjoy. At this point, I'm just "hopeful" the metro do not miss out of the bunch, because its rare to see so much snow like it used to be 10+ years ago.

[Bunty]

Looking at everything, I'm going to hold tight for now. I think the forecast is actually pretty good as is from when I last updated. GFS was a bit higher than I thought after looking at the zoomed in products.

Closer in look...

NAM 8-12" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlay...?STATIONID=TLX
GFS 10-15" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-ove...?STATIONID=TLX

I wouldn't be surprised if the weather service has to step things up to a blizzard warning.

[ljbab728]

Even tho both of those models barely cover the metro with those awesome snow totals, I still do not appreciate those models leaning toward the eastern half of the state. What is with that?! Just that I notice how almost every time, the models predict the eastern half of state getting the most snow actually jinx the weather to favor the eastern half leaving us tiny bit to enjoy. At this point, I'm just "hopeful" the metro do not miss out of the bunch, because its rare to see so much snow like it used to be 10+ years ago.

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

[Thunder]

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

LOLOLOLOL!!!! Those businesses can handle it. Few days... Pfffft. I'll betcha after this is over, they won't be filing bankrupt.

[venture]

I wouldn't be surprised if the weather service has to step things up to a blizzard warning.

We'll meet the snowfall criteria easily I think, it will just be a mattered of making sure winds are 35 mph sustained for 3 hours.

[venture]

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

Let's try to keep this thread focused more on the weather and not so much on other topics. If you'd like, you can always start up another thread of weather impacts on local business. :-)

[ljbab728]

Let's try to keep this thread focused more on the weather and not so much on other topics. If you'd like, you can always start up another thread of weather impacts on local business. :-)

Venture, I certainly appreciate your input but the topic of "Winter Weather Discussion - Jan 2011" isn't quite that exclusive. Maybe you should mention that to Thunder when he starts jumping up and down about the possibility of being able to go out and play in the snow. I think the effect of the weather on those of us in this area is certainly relevant to this thread. If we weren't concerned about the impact of the weather this thread wouldn't be taking place either.

[ljbab728]

LOLOLOLOL!!!! Those businesses can handle it. Few days... Pfffft. I'll betcha after this is over, they won't be filing bankrupt.

You wouldn't be saying that if the money was coming out of your pocket. Would you care to reimburse everyone who loses money?