April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[soonerguru]

The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming in midday, and the next line much later forming atop or even east of OKC. I think this forecast is complex enough to make any firm predictions really tough. If we do get a line through early AND it "beats up" the atmosphere enough, it might limit how strong the *next* line can get. The key fuel is unstable air, primed for lifting by heat, so if a bunch of storms come through and stabilizes it, there goes your "fuel." But it doesn't preclude rain.

The complexity here is that the first round of storms may not "beat up" the atmosphere enough to *prevent* stronger storms later. Really hard to say with certainty in this dynamic and very likely why SPC hasn't been more aggressive with their outlooks.

Thank you. I do actually know what the models are and what they represent. It was more of a gentle request for more layman's language and less jargon.

Mike Morgan (I know) just mentioned that OKC could pick up up to 7 inches of rain, with a widespread three to four inches of rain. It's starting to seem like this is more of a high-end flooding event as opposed to a supercellular event. That would be welcomed.

Regardless, it looks like we are going to get a nice soaking rain. Let's hope so. We will need as much as we can get before La Nina takes over.

[SoonerDave]

Thank you. I do actually know what the models are and what they represent. It was more of a gentle request for more layman's language and less jargon.

Mike Morgan (I know) just mentioned that OKC could pick up up to 7 inches of rain, with a widespread three to four inches of rain. It's starting to seem like this is more of a high-end flooding event as opposed to a supercellular event. That would be welcomed.

Regardless, it looks like we are going to get a nice soaking rain. Let's hope so. We will need as much as we can get before La Nina takes over.

Okay, sorry I misunderstood the question. Hope it didn't sound derogatory, didn't mean to. I'm a computer guy who kinda follows weather so the models and such kinda pique my interest but I realize not everyone gets into it like that.

[SEMIweather]

Going to be out and about taking photos tomorrow so not sure how much more I’m going to post on this event, but one final thing I’ll say is that we might be trending towards an outcome in which the morning convection largely stays in Western Oklahoma, possibly not approaching the Metro until after midday, at which point the storms may be starting to take on supercellular characteristics. All in all, still a very complicated event, but certainly a day to stay weather aware.

[SEMIweather]

SPC has upgraded the entire Metro to a Moderate Risk for both tornadoes and hail.

[PoliSciGuy]

Some very strong wording in this outlook. I could see them going to a high risk tomorrow if the morning round of storms don’t kill the atmosphere

https://x.com/nwsspc/status/1784102234445463989?s=46

[Anonymous.]

To me it seems the early development will have supercell characteristics, so hail threat high. Then the dryline fires off and those storms will be big hail and tornado threat.

I do think S and SE of OKC will be the largest tornado threat due to limited contamination from earlier convection.

Flood threat very high just E of all of I-44.

[SoonerDave]

So we are bracing for two big rounas of storms in the OKC area, one in the morning/midday, then another later depending how how much the first round stabilizes the atmosphere? Are we looking at, say, noon then 5-6 pm, or earlier/later? Just trying to assess a time frame. I'm looking at the NAM and it seems to suggest a first round in central OK around 1pm then the next much later, around perhaps 10-11pm?

[TornadoKegan]

Do we have to brace for a Moore type event potentially. i hope that there is a morning round of storms that kills the atmosphere because it looks like a nightmare otherwise, so far we don't have that

[SoonerDave]

Do we have to brace for a Moore type event potentially. i hope that there is a morning round of storms that kills the atmosphere because it looks like a nightmare otherwise, so far we don't have that

What concerns me is I'm looking at radar for any signs of morning initiation anywhere and I'm not seeing it. Heck I'm even looking for some NWS MD products for "first round" initiation and there are none active. Gotta admit that's a little concerning.

[dekabreak1000]

Can someone eli5 please

[TornadoKegan]

Sounding in SW OKC for 9Z

[TornadoKegan]

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

[SoonerDave]

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

So we're looking at a possible upgrade to a PDS watch it would seem at some point today. Ugh.

[SoonerDave]

First MD of the day out, and a severe storm watch is likely to be issued within the hour for western OK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0537.html

[SoonerDave]

Looks like first initiation occurring NE of Lubbock moving NE at a pretty good clip.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

First watch of the day issued. Tornado Watch for Western Oklahoma until 1pm. It's going to be a long day!

Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across northwest Texas, and these storms will spread northeastward across western Oklahoma through the morning. Despite the time of day, the environment will favor supercell clusters capable of producing a few tornadoes, very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph.

[jn1780]

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

Does the forecasting product automatically generate that analog? Concerning seeing actual data comparisons and not just someone automatically comparing everything to May 3rd.

[SEMIweather]

Trying to predict exactly how today's event will unfold is going to be incredibly challenging, but it's safe to say that overnight trends have been alarming and seem to suggest a higher-end event is relatively likely.

All in all, probably a good day to just keep a close eye on the radar and your most trusted weather source. Nowcasting is going to be key for understanding how things are evolving, even more so than on your typical significant severe weather day in Oklahoma. I would assume all of the local stations are going to be doing live coverage for much of the day, and for however bad they are about hyping things up in advance of these events, I do feel that their live coverage tends to be legitimately good.

[TornadoKegan]

There's word going around that they're gonna issue a high risk and A PDS tornado watch by 11.

[SoonerDave]

There's word going around that they're gonna issue a high risk and A PDS tornado watch by 11.

After looking at those hodographs and all the language SPC has used in the prior statements, I can't say I'm surprised.

I am curious why the storms in west OK have not really been able to organize better. They seem to pulse up, then wane. Odd.

Meanwhile, here in OKC there are breaks in the clouds and some sunshine peeking through. More warming in central OK isn't going to help.

[TornadoKegan]

New Mesoscale Discussion out
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0538.html

[Anonymous.]

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.

[SoonerDave]

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.

That area you describe sure seems to mimic the region I saw on on of the model runs this morning.
The dynamics of this situation are really interesting and make nailing things down tougher

[TornadoKegan]

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.

Is that area the most likely for storm development?

[TornadoKegan]

2 Tornado Warnings Already