Population Growth for OKC

[BDP]

Doesn't sound like anyone was offended by it, but it is a discussion about "Population Growth for OKC", so it's not surprising that some would discuss an article about the state's population growth within that context.

[Laramie]

Not to keeping being a stickler, but I still don't feel like I've seen any official sources for that 711,372 number that keeps being thrown around. I only ever see it from World Population Review, not the Census itself, with no background on where their "projection" is coming from. From what I can tell, the census has released state-level preliminary estimates valid at July 1, 2022 (Oklahoma population estimate = 4,019,800), but nothing for the municipality level. As I said in a previous post, a population of 711,372 would represent a marked increase in growth rate since 2020 (2.2% annually) compared to the 2020-2021 growth rate reported by the census (0.7%).

World population estimates IIRC correctly were closer to what more accurately reflected Oklahoma City's 2020 population count.

"We knew we were growing, but the most recent estimates did not put us this high," Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt said.

"Seventeen percent growth far outpaces the growth of the state, which is only 5.5%," Holt said. "It far outpaces the growth of the nation, which is only 7%."

The new estimate means Oklahoma City is now the 22nd largest city in the U.S., jumping Milwaukee, Baltimore, Memphis and Boston, to name a few.

"It's validation that you are in the right place," Holt said. "This is where people want to move to, want to live."

According to the 2020 Census, the population in Oklahoma City climbed from 579,999 people in 2010 to 681,054 in 2020. The population grew the most on the north and west sides of the city.

2022 - 711,372 (23,647}
2021 - 687,725 (6,671)
2020 - 681,054

Oklahoma City is now the 20th largest city by city population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population


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[soonerguru]

Oklahoma City - City population estimate: 711,372 https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...-ok-population

2022 - 2020 (711,372 - 681,054 = 30,318)

Oklahoma population estimate:

2022 - 2020 (4,019,800 - 3,959,353 = 60,477] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

These figures reflect the time-period from the 2020 official census to the 2022 estimates.

Oklahoma City's central city-population reflects half of Oklahoma's growth.

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You're discussing city population growth, not metro population growth. What the Tulsa World does not make clear is where these newcomers are moving.

I think we can make an educated guess that the vast majority of these folks are moving to the OKC Metro.

[soonerguru]

From April 2020 to the July 2021 estimate for MSAs, which is the latest actual real estimate we have from the US Census, Oklahoma City grew by 1.12% as compared to .85% for Tulsa.

A .27% gap in growth is not really very large.

And god forbid a Tulsa newspaper would mention Tulsa in an article. Pure insanity. Talk about having a complex.

Wow, seems like I've touched a raw nerve here, lol.

1.12% of a much larger number is significantly more people than .85% of a smaller number. Match is hard.

Here's another example. If Chickasha had 3% growth it would be an increase of 473. Boo-ya for Chickasha but 1.1% for OKC metro would amount to 42,000 people.

Again, if this discussion is, "where are the Oklahoma newcomers moving in Oklahoma," one would be able to note that the vast majority are coming to the OKC area.

[soonerguru]

It's not that deep. It's literally just an article about the state population surpassing 4 million people. I have no idea how this innocuous article could be interpreted to be some affront to Central Oklahoma. It doesn't make any claims that Tulsa was responsible for the increase in the state's population or even claim Tulsa had any growth in population at all.

JFC the hyperbole on this site is unreal sometimes. It's not an "affront," it's a pattern in the Tulsa World reporting. I read both papers. The World will not write anything significant about OKC if it stands in contrast to Tulsa, such as when OKC hopscotched several other cities in population ranking. It's the little brother complex.

I know you won't care what I say but it's something I've observed for many years.

[Laramie]

You're discussing city population growth, not metro population growth. What the Tulsa World does not make clear is where these newcomers are moving.

I think we can make an educated guess that the vast majority of these folks are moving to the OKC Metro.

My discussion although it included city population growth was to draw attention to Oklahoma City's growth which was high
in comparison to the state's population growth.

What we don't have are the in-state and out-of-state migration numbers that attributed to the increase to specific towns and cities.

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[soonerguru]

^^ Yes you and I are much in agreement here.

[Teo9969]

It feels like we've grown a lot recently. Traffic, while still very manageable, seems to be busier more often than it ever has been.

[BDP]

It feels like we've grown a lot recently. Traffic, while still very manageable, seems to be busier more often than it ever has been.

And it seems there's a lane closure every couple of miles right now.

I rarely use map apps locally, but they've actually been useful lately.

[Laramie]

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Story link: https://www.kansascityfed.org/oklaho...e-brain-drain/


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[TheTravellers]

And it seems there's a lane closure every couple of miles right now.

I rarely use map apps locally, but they've actually been useful lately.

Speaking of that, May Ave is one lane each way between NW 57th and just north of Wilshire, looks like they're resurfacing. Traffic's gotta be a nightmare, but I was able to take residential streets all the way from 57th to Wilshire, so I don't know how bad it actually is...

[Jake]

At my doctors office the receptionist moved here last February from California. I asked why they moved here and she said they chose it due to affordability, didn't have any relatives here at all. She also commented that they sold their home for double what they paid, and bought in north Edmond and are debt free. I see California car tags all the time anymore.

Didn't realize they renamed Altus to California. /s

[Pete]

This California transplant narrative is completely due to it being by far the largest state in the union.

The fact that it is only #4 in inbound people is not exactly proof of our state being a strong magnet, nor is the fact that Oklahoma only ranks 25th as a destination for people leaving that state.

I've still yet to meet anyone 'from California' that didn't grow up here or have some sort of other family connection. In fact, the Chamber has featured this couple from Newport Beach and never mentioned both went to McGuiness and are children of wealthy local families. It's not like they were living on the beach and just randomly chose OKC for objective reasons.


The big cities in California are like New York in that lots of people move there in their youth and then return to where they grew up (like me) or move to smaller, more affordable cities.

Let's put it this way: I met 100x more Oklahomans in California than I've met Californians in Oklahoma.

I will also say I've tried very hard to recruit people from the West Coast to live here and haven't come close yet; and I'm arguably the most rah-rah OKC person on the planet and literally have hundreds of good friends out there.


Most of OKC's growth is from people in the state moving from small towns into the metro area; it's part of an accelerated national rural to urban/suburban trend. I've met hundreds and hundreds of people from Carnegie, Altus, Hugo, Lawton, Duncan, Ardmore on and on and on... And many more who have parents from small towns. That is an infinitely bigger trend than the very small number of people moving here from California and really anywhere other than Texas (and even in that case, net migration is almost a push).

[Pete]

BTW, all the evidence you need in terms of most of OKC's growth coming from rural areas in the state is this: Oklahoma as a state is well under-performing population growth both as a percentage vs. other states (26th out of 50) and the national average (5.5% vs. 7.4%). That's from the 2010-2020 census; hard numbers not estimates.

We are still growing at a rate slower than such powerhouses as New Jersey, Nebraska and Delaware.

Yet for the same period, the OKC MSA grew 13.7%.


The big rural-to-urban migration is part of an overwhelming national and international trend and that is what is accounting for almost all of OKC's growth.

If we want to feel proud of something that is based on facts (versus Chamber puffery or culture-war-driven rhetoric), these people from Oklahoma small towns are choosing OKC at a much higher rate than Tulsa (8.3% MSA growth last decade on a smaller base of population).

[therhett17]

BTW, all the evidence you need in terms of most of OKC's growth coming from rural areas in the state is this: Oklahoma as a state is well under-performing population growth both as a percentage vs. other states (26th out of 50) and the national average (5.5% vs. 7.4%). That's from the 2010-2020 census; hard numbers not estimates.

We are still growing at a rate slower than such powerhouses as New Jersey, Nebraska and Delaware.

Yet for the same period, the OKC MSA grew 13.7%.


The big rural-to-urban migration is part of an overwhelming national and international trend and that is what is accounting for almost all of OKC's growth.

If we want to feel proud of something that is based on facts (versus Chamber puffery or culture-war-driven rhetoric), these people from Oklahoma small towns are choosing OKC at a much higher rate than Tulsa (8.3% MSA growth last decade on a smaller base of population).

Purely my own speculation, but I feel that one reason OKC is chosen more than Tulsa is because of its central location in the state. I live in OKC and love it, and I also love Tulsa. But as far as the most practical city to live in regards to distance from family, OKC is the winner for us. My folks are in the Ada area and my husband's family is in the Amarillo area.

[Jake]

Purely my own speculation, but I feel that one reason OKC is chosen more than Tulsa is because of its central location in the state. I live in OKC and love it, and I also love Tulsa. But as far as the most practical city to live in regards to distance from family, OKC is the winner for us. My folks are in the Ada area and my husband's family is in the Amarillo area.

OKC also has substantially more job opportunities for people.

[Pete]

^

The state and Tinker-related jobs are huge draws; Tulsa doesn't have anything close.

And tons of people go to school at OU and stay in the OKC-area. This is true for all the DFW types as well as those from small towns around the state.

[Jake]

^

The state and Tinker-related jobs are huge draws; Tulsa doesn't have anything close.

And tons of people go to school at OU and stay in the OKC-area. This is true for all the DFW types as well as those from small towns around the state.

I have 3 close friends from when I lived in Tulsa that moved to OKC and now work in and around Tinker. It's crazy how massive it is.

[KayneMo]

Interesting map from here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...n-growth-maps/

OKC land development from 2001-2019 (in purple)


Tulsa


DFW

[Pete]

This is a list of largest employers in the state. Very different than the one put out by the OKC Chamber as they leave out Walmart and others.

https://www.okcommerce.gov/doing-bus...est-employers/

[stlokc]

Wow. A lot of possible takeaways from that list.

Here's one: Devon Energy is the 119th largest employer in the state. I would have put it in the top 50 not knowing anything.

Also, the relative scarcity of energy companies in general for a state that is supposedly reliant on them.

(I do realize that employment numbers is not a direct corollary to overall value. 1 Devon job is probably worth 10 Amazon jobs. But still.)

[stlokc]

What I like about this map is how OKC has growth in a number of directions. While there is a bit more to the north, which is expected, there is growth in the south and west as well. This is a good sign for downtown because it is staying more in the population center of the metro area.

[BG918]

Interesting map from here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...n-growth-maps/

OKC land development from 2001-2019 (in purple)


Tulsa


DFW

Very interesting maps, and graphically shows the growth of the OKC metro on the north and west sides along with continued infill between Moore and Norman. I foresee the area west of the Kickapoo Turnpike extension and east of Moore/Norman as a growth area in the next two decades along with continued expansion of the west Edmond/Deer Creek area. Eastern metro growth has lagged with the exception of Midwest City..

For Tulsa, that also shows where the bulk of new growth has been in the southern parts of Tulsa County primarily SW Tulsa, Jenks, Bixby and Broken Arrow. Over the next couple decades I foresee areas west of Owasso to fill in more toward Hwy 75, for new neighborhood growth in Broken Arrow to shift more northward toward I-244 (Fair Oaks) and for new growth along the Gilcrease Turnpike in NW Tulsa.

DFW...wow is all I can say

[Zuplar]

What I find interesting is how the majority of those jobs are government or government adjacent jobs.

[BDP]

This California transplant narrative is completely due to it being by far the largest state in the union.

The fact that it is only #4 in inbound people is not exactly proof of our state being a strong magnet, nor is the fact that Oklahoma only ranks 25th as a destination for people leaving that state.

I've still yet to meet anyone 'from California' that didn't grow up here or have some sort of other family connection.

Absolutely. In 2019 it only took 7,000 people moving from CA to OK to make CA #4. That's not that many people. About half that many moved to CA that same year. And none of those numbers consider past migration, so, like you pointed out, many are most likely returning to Oklahoma.

That's not to say any of that is bad. At the end of the day, OKC is growing and its quality of life is light years ahead of what it was just 20 years ago.

I think I'm just getting old enough to think "you guys don't know how you good you have it" when I hear complaints about OKC. lol