Covid-19 Economic Impact

[OKC Guy]

Do the math this is not sustainable we must reopen America and use common sense precautions. We will lose many more dead if our system crashes:


Real Time Economics
@WSJecon
Ohio's updated figures released Friday show jobless claims rose to nearly 140,000 through Thursday, compared with about 5,000 for the same period last week.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-lay....co/v25g74zn9M

[Bunty]

Do the math this is not sustainable we must reopen America and use common sense precautions. We will lose many more dead if our system crashes:

Real Time Economics
@WSJecon
Ohio's updated figures released Friday show jobless claims rose to nearly 140,000 through Thursday, compared with about 5,000 for the same period last week.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-lay....co/v25g74zn9M

There should be enough data coming in to determine who is dying. If hardly any kids under 18 are dying, it may be okay to reopen schools, especially if it can somehow be determined that kids aren't good at giving adults COVID-19. If schools reopen on April 6 as planned, it will be an important early step toward getting back to normal.

[Laramie]

Keep The Faith...

[soonerguru]

double post

[soonerguru]

Not to be a doomer here, but does anyone believe a $1,200 check is going to make a difference here? We are talking about massive economic hardship that will rival the Great Depression. Hoovervilles popping up. People's retirements decimated. I am not an economist but this will affect virtually every sector of the economy.

We couldn't be in a worse situation right now with worse leadership at the state and federal level. This is a nightmare. What is Stitt doing allowing all of the large gatherings in companies, and churches, and state office buildings to continue? Can he read an entire article on his own about the piecemeal approach Italy tried (and failed with).

Close the restaurants and bars and churches statewide. Starting today. The sooner we lock this down the sooner we get past the surge and can conceivably resume some type of normalcy to our lives. The alternative is to have every small town in Oklahoma acting like nothing is happening, and have Midwest City and Moore do nothing or very little, and the virus just keeps circulating.

I see a lot of sneering contempt for Italy but Americans don't appear to be much smarter. The Florida governor FINALLY closed the beaches yesterday after weeks of spring breakers hitting the waves and the bars (also open).

I don't see a good ending here at all. What we know of OKC -- and cities across the nation -- will be changed dramatically.

I still have hope and belief we will get through this but our leadership makes me shudder.

[RustytheBailiff]

There should be enough data coming in to determine who is dying. If hardly any kids under 18 are dying, it may be okay to reopen schools, especially if it can somehow be determined that kids aren't good at giving adults COVID-19. If schools reopen on April 6 as planned, it will be an important early step toward getting back to normal.

Sorry, No. Even if kids are immune, they still pass it on. I do not want my children going to a building daily where there are a thousand other children, some of whom assuredly are passing the virus around. Sure my kid is find, but my wife might die. They need to shut down the country totally and do it immediately. Thats why China is on the mend and every where else is struggling.

[Teo9969]

Sorry, No. Even if kids are immune, they still pass it on. I do not want my children going to a building daily where there are a thousand other children, some of whom assuredly are passing the virus around. Sure my kid is find, but my wife might die. They need to shut down the country totally and do it immediately. Thats why China is on the mend and every where else is struggling.

Are they though?

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...wer&soc_trk=fb

The opportunity for suffering and death from the economic fallout has the potential to trounce the 0.5% to 2% that we're looking at with a wild fire spread of this virus.

[mkjeeves]

Are they though?

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...wer&soc_trk=fb

The opportunity for suffering and death from the economic fallout has the potential to trounce the 0.5% to 2% that we're looking at with a wild fire spread of this virus.

That linked story is three weeks old now (March 6). There could be some truth about misinformation coming out of China. But here's a more current one about China beginning to slowly recover. There are other ones also based on reports of energy use and other factors that are hard to fake. It's not happening fast by any means but the wheels are beginning to turn again. https://www.ft.com/content/f47a39ea-...9-1fe6fedcca75

[Teo9969]

That linked story is three weeks old now (March 6). There could be some truth about misinformation coming out of China. But here's a more current one about China beginning to slowly recover. There are other ones also based on reports of energy use and other factors that are hard to fake. It's not happening fast by any means but the wheels are beginning to turn again. https://www.ft.com/content/f47a39ea-...9-1fe6fedcca75

My bad! I didn't realize my article is 3 wks behind. If things are improving in China and their economy is ticking back up, I feel better about the direction we're on.

Having good, up to date information is the most difficult thing about all of this, and it's undoubtedly our most critical for decision making. Unfortunately it's censorous China that is leading the pack here.

Realistically, we can probably make it back from a lockdown through April, but that's it. The economy *has* to be turning again by May 1st @ minimum 70% efficiency. If experts are certain that we need to do 2 months quarantine, 1 month economic activity we need to just bite the bullet and take the precipitous ride after April.

[mugofbeer]

Sorry, No. Even if kids are immune, they still pass it on. I do not want my children going to a building daily where there are a thousand other children, some of whom assuredly are passing the virus around. Sure my kid is find, but my wife might die. They need to shut down the country totally and do it immediately. Thats why China is on the mend and every where else is struggling.

While l agree with you on kids going back to school quite yet - let me also point out kids going back to school necessitates adults connected to the schools have to return to work, as well - more risks of exposure. I can not agree with your premise of "closing down the country."

There are large swaths of rural areas where COVID has not reached so no need for them the shelter in place. Again, leave that decision to more local governments.

[gopokes88]

China is lying. It’s still spreading there.

They just couldn’t continue to stomach the economic costs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek...esidents-claim

We’ll have to make the same choice. We can’t keep the economy shut down. Life has to move on. We can’t all be hermits terrified of a virus.

[Teo9969]

China is lying. It’s still spreading there.

They just couldn’t continue to stomach the economic costs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek...esidents-claim

We’ll have to make the same choice. We can’t keep the economy shut down. Life has to move on. We can’t all be hermits terrified of a virus.

That is 3 weeks old. I also shared that, so my bad.

[mkjeeves]

China is lying. It’s still spreading there.

They just couldn’t continue to stomach the economic costs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek...esidents-claim

We’ll have to make the same choice. We can’t keep the economy shut down. Life has to move on. We can’t all be hermits terrified of a virus.

Just upthread

That linked story is three weeks old now (March 6). There could be some truth about misinformation coming out of China. But here's a more current one about China beginning to slowly recover. There are other ones also based on reports of energy use and other factors that are hard to fake. It's not happening fast by any means but the wheels are beginning to turn again. https://www.ft.com/content/f47a39ea-...9-1fe6fedcca75

You can get past the paywall by searching the article title, or what should be the top link at this page: https://www.google.com/search?client...after+lockdown

[mugofbeer]

Also the air pollution levels.

[Bunty]

China is lying. It’s still spreading there.

They just couldn’t continue to stomach the economic costs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek...esidents-claim

We’ll have to make the same choice. We can’t keep the economy shut down. Life has to move on. We can’t all be hermits terrified of a virus.

In that case, there better be plans for places to put more hospital beds. Gotta have at least enough compassion for people who need them. But my concern will hospitals have the ability to treat people with non virus related emergencies, such as broken bones and heart attacks?

[TheTravellers]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kotliko.../#6420bc9d5798

...All these concerns suggest that uncoordinated lockdowns will go on for months, if not for one or two years. Is this affordable? It's definitely not. A year's loss of income for American workers comes to $13 trillion. Congress and the administration are talking about providing $1 trillion to households to "stimulate" the economy, but it's really to help people pay some bills. But $1 trillion won't cut it for even one month. So, let's say the Treasury borrows $1 trillion every month to help workers cover their lost wages. In a year's time, this will increase national debt by over 65%, leaving us with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 135%. This is roughly Italy's current ratio.

[BoulderSooner]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kotliko.../#6420bc9d5798

...All these concerns suggest that uncoordinated lockdowns will go on for months, if not for one or two years. Is this affordable? It's definitely not. A year's loss of income for American workers comes to $13 trillion. Congress and the administration are talking about providing $1 trillion to households to "stimulate" the economy, but it's really to help people pay some bills. But $1 trillion won't cut it for even one month. So, let's say the Treasury borrows $1 trillion every month to help workers cover their lost wages. In a year's time, this will increase national debt by over 65%, leaving us with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 135%. This is roughly Italy's current ratio.

this info is spreading more and more

this economic disaster is going to be so big

[EBAH]

While l agree with you on kids going back to school quite yet - let me also point out kids going back to school necessitates adults connected to the schools have to return to work, as well - more risks of exposure. I can not agree with your premise of "closing down the country."

There are large swaths of rural areas where COVID has not reached so no need for them the shelter in place. Again, leave that decision to more local governments.

This actually isn't a very safe assumption. Remember the intensity of Italy's problem was tipped over in to the absolutely awful category by the virus running unchecked in a minor city. We don't have any active testing campaign and I'd honestly expect any day now we will have a concentrated outbreak in a smaller town or city in a state like Oklahoma that brings this sharply and terrifyingly in to focus for small town America. Fact is people in smaller towns actually have a much shorter degree of separation between them than large cities do. If this breaks out in a town like Watonga or something it could infect the entire population in a matter of days. I only use Watonga because I drove through it the other day to see people crowding diners and going about business as usual. The thing is with zero testing and barely any real medical services in towns like that, when / if it comes, by the time they know about it, it will be too late to prevent pretty awful outcomes.

[OKC Guy]

Also mentions small business:

Wireless cellular carrier AT&T is helping its customers get through the coronavirus pandemic.

The company announced on its website on Sunday that it is waiving all domestic wireless plan overage charges for data, voice and text.

The announcement was made as part of the company's Keep Americans Connected Pledge.

"As of March 13, 2020, and for the next 60 days, we will waive domestic wireless plan overage charges for data, voice or text for residential or small business wireless customers incurred because of economic hardship related to the coronavirus pandemic," said AT&T in an online statement.

https://local12.com/news/coronavirus...virus-pandemic

[catch22]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-dom...d=breakingnews

U.S. Domestic Passenger Flights Could Virtually Shut Down, Voluntarily or by Government Order

[gopokes88]

Yikes

[soonerguru]

It is a grossly mistaken notion that “opening things up” will revive the economy. The economy cannot and will not recover until the public health crisis abates. Stitt’s dithering will actually prolong the heath crisis and make it literally impossible for the economy to rebound. We only have a matter of days left to prevent a massive and devastating health crisis in this state. By allowing this piecemeal closure approach to continue and by failing to use his powers to act, Stitt is following Italy’s blueprint. Many if not most of us here will lose someone as a result. Some of us on this thread won’t make it. Stitt will have blood on his hands..

[gopokes88]

It is a grossly mistaken notion that “opening things up” will revive the economy. The economy cannot and will not recover until the public health crisis abates. Stitt’s dithering will actually prolong the heath crisis and make it literally impossible for the economy to rebound. We only have a matter of days left to prevent a massive and devastating health crisis in this state. By allowing this piecemeal closure approach to continue and by failing to use his powers to act, Stitt is following Italy’s blueprint. Many if not most of us here will lose someone as a result. Some of us on this thread won’t make it. Stitt will have blood on his hands..

Frankly, this just isn’t true.

The key will be on demand testing available.
First, everyone take the test to see if you’ve already had it or not.
Second, over 60 is isolated.
Third, you feel sick, or if you just want too get tested every few days. You catch it, you isolate, if not move on with life.

[BoulderSooner]

It is a grossly mistaken notion that “opening things up” will revive the economy. The economy cannot and will not recover until the public health crisis abates. Stitt’s dithering will actually prolong the heath crisis and make it literally impossible for the economy to rebound. We only have a matter of days left to prevent a massive and devastating health crisis in this state. By allowing this piecemeal closure approach to continue and by failing to use his powers to act, Stitt is following Italy’s blueprint. Many if not most of us here will lose someone as a result. Some of us on this thread won’t make it. Stitt will have blood on his hands..

a prolonged shutdown destroys our entire economic system ...

we are already looking at a great depression type event ..

[RustytheBailiff]

a prolonged shutdown destroys our entire economic system ...

we are already looking at a great depression type event ..

A deadly illness, left unchecked, will also destroy the economy. We are headed for a depression regardless, might as well try to keep people alive.