General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017

[Celebrator]

After all the hoopla (or is that hubbub?) from last week, the ten-day GFS looks fairly mild and quiet..50's and 60's this week...maybe a chance at some showers on Saturday into Sunday, but it looks like the big jet stream track south is going to keep the moisture a bit restrained. Maybe some marginally cooler air coming in perhaps way at the end of the 10-day GFS forecast window, so take that for what it's worth this far out.

I'll take it. That's what nice about our winter weather, the arctic never sets in for long.

[Dessert Fox]

This might be a bit off topic, but the first high risk in two and a half years was issued today for parts of Georgia and northern Florida. Hopefully they get through it alright.

[Anonymous.]

Amazing setups with this storm system that has been scooting across the south. This is the largest 30% hatched tornado area I have ever seen.

[Anonymous.]

Two nice days with this Monday and Tuesday, then normal winter temperatures come back in for the remainder of January. Lows in upper 20s, Highs in mid to upper 40s.

No major storms on the near horizon, we will be in NW jetstream flow.

[Anonymous.]

Critical fire danger today:

[Anonymous.]

Forecast heading into the first week of February looks more mild than we have had the last week or so.

Highs in 60 with lows in the 30s. Next storm chances coming in around this coming weekend. At this time it looks like rain, but has switched to snow on some runs.

[LakeEffect]

Forecast heading into the first week of February looks more mild than we have had the last week or so.

Highs in 60 with lows in the 30s. Next storm chances coming in around this coming weekend. At this time it looks like rain, but has switched to snow on some runs.

Remembering 2011... certainly not out of the realm that we could get crazy winter weather this time of year.

[Celebrator]

Remembering 2011... certainly not out of the realm that we could get crazy winter weather this time of year.

An Okie old timer told me when I first moved here 8 years ago that some of the heaviest snows he's seen in his life in Oklahoma were in March! So we are certainly not out of the woods yet by any means for wintry weather.

[SoonerDave]

An Okie old timer told me when I first moved here 8 years ago that some of the heaviest snows he's seen in his life in Oklahoma were in March! So we are certainly not out of the woods yet by any means for wintry weather.

This! Back when I was a student at OU, well into a particular spring semester (don't remember the year, probably '85, but my recollection is telling me it was March), a pretty impressive snowstorm hit the area and, as a commuter student, I opted to bail on afternoon classes and get back to OKC before the worst hit - and I was too late. I drove back on a single-lane of snow-packed I-35 and remember a drive that normally took me maybe 15-20 minutes took me close to an hour.

[riflesforwatie]

This! Back when I was a student at OU, well into a particular spring semester (don't remember the year, probably '85, but my recollection is telling me it was March), a pretty impressive snowstorm hit the area and, as a commuter student, I opted to bail on afternoon classes and get back to OKC before the worst hit - and I was too late. I drove back on a single-lane of snow-packed I-35 and remember a drive that normally took me maybe 15-20 minutes took me close to an hour.

From 1951-2001, heavy Oklahoma snows (accumulations >4") were most common in the month of January, followed by March and February, respectively. Then there is a fairly sharp drop-off to December, and another fairly sharp drop-off to November. Heavy snows can occur in October or April but are exceedingly rare. Interestingly, if you consider only accumulations >12", March and January are tied. If you consider only >16" accumulations, March leads the pack. Five of the ten heaviest snows in state history (through 2001) occurred in March. This is likely due to the generally greater available atmospheric moisture in March, which is related to the (relatively) warmer air available in the month of March.

These statistics are somewhat skewed by the state's climate regions, though. March snows are relatively more common in the Panhandle and in northeastern Oklahoma. In central Oklahoma (Kingfisher, Canadian, Logan, Oklahoma, Cleveland, McClain, and Grady Counties), heavy snows (>4") are most common in January, followed by a near-tie between December and February. March is in a relatively distant fourth-place.

In Oklahoma City specifically, 15 of the top 99 accumulating snows (about 2" and up) occurred in March. (5 were in November, 19 in December, 33 in January, and 27 in February). For those 4" and greater (total of 32 events), 3 were in November, 5 in December, 11 in January, 7 in February, and 6 in March. The biggest March snow at OKC was on March 10, 1948, when 8.4" of snow were recorded. That's good enough for 3rd-most all-time, after the 2009 Christmas Eve blizzard and the February 1, 2011 snowstorm. I tried to find the March '85 storm but it doesn't appear in any OKC records (but given the nature of snow accumulations it is entirely possible that there were big accumulating snows in Norman, Moore, or other parts of OKC, just not at the airport!). There aren't any major March OKC snowstorms in the 1983-1987 period, but February '86 was a big snow month (6.5" on the 7th and 3.8" on the 10th). January 18, 1987 was also a big storm (8.3"). And '87-'88 was a massive winter for snow, with 8.3" on December 14, 1987, and 8.3" again on January 6, 1988. What I would give to have lived here during that winter :-)!

[Anonymous.]

Storm system for this weekend is drying up. Maybe a slight chance in OKC Saturday night, but nothing too extreme. Eastern OK is the best shot at rain.

The drought is building here across the state and fire danger will be at critical levels next week and beyond.

[BG918]

Growing up in Tulsa we could always count on a sizable March snowstorm. They never lasted very long afterward though. Recently that hasn't been the case it's been too warm. I'd be curious if the higher elevations in far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas are able to pick up more snow in the spring. I remember driving down to Poteau once in February and seeing snow on the tops of a few of the taller mountains near there but not in the valleys or towns.

[Dustin]

Growing up in Tulsa we could always count on a sizable March snowstorm. They never lasted very long afterward though. Recently that hasn't been the case it's been too warm. I'd be curious if the higher elevations in far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas are able to pick up more snow in the spring. I remember driving down to Poteau once in February and seeing snow on the tops of a few of the taller mountains near there but not in the valleys or towns.

Most of my memories of really heavy snowfall have been in Jan/Feb/March. The blizzard of 2011 happened right around this time.

[OkiePoke]

If the storm system is drying up, how do the temperatures for this weekend look?

[SomeGuy]

So could this potentially be it for snow/ice this winter since temps look to be above average in the near future?

[Anonymous.]

Temperatures this weekend will be low 50s for C OK on Saturday. And Sunday we will be warming up into the mid 60s. Monday we could be in the 70s.

And yes, looking at long-range - we could be done with winter precipitation. We do however, desperately need rain.

[jn1780]

The southeast has had a pretty rough storm season so far.

[Anonymous.]

Critical fire weather today and tomorrow. Record highs are likely across much of OK on Saturday.

Drought relief is on the way for Monday. Best shot is southern OK, but trend is shifting northward.

[LocoAko]

Just incredible, record breaking warmth for this time of year. The Panhandle reached 94F (!!!) this afteroon. Tomorrow's forecast is for mid-upper 80s across central Oklahoma with low 90s over southwest Oklahoma. On February 11th!

[Dessert Fox]

Enjoying this quiet weather before Spring kicks into high gear.

Speaking of spring, Anon or Loco, are you betting on a relatively busy year weather-wise? After all, there is a La Nina..fairly weak though.

[BG918]

I saw a 99 degree Mesonet reading in Mangum today! Earliest it's been that hot in the state since 1918.

Meanwhile Denver CO hit 80 degrees yesterday shattering the old record of 71 set in 1951.

[Dessert Fox]

Well, speaking of that weak La Nina, It's gone. Back to neutral with an El Nino possible later this year.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017. La Niña conditions are no longer present,

[Anonymous.]

I think this spring could be more on the quiet side - I fear the drought is coming back strong, hope it reverses - even eastern parts of OK are slipping into bad drought.


Cold today with rain moving in this afternoon and into the evening. Likely will be a break in the rain late overnight - then redevelopment of rain on the backside of the system during the day Tuesday. It will be a very cold rain. Potential for a few snowflakes to mix in out in western OK.

[Anonymous.]

Heavy rain approaching C OK now. Perfect for drought repair.

[LakeEffect]

Heavy rain approaching C OK now. Perfect for drought repair.

7-day QPF popped up quite a bit, especially for southern OK. Hope that modeling rings true...