Today
Marginal Risk today over Northern OK and Western OK. Early morning convection will likely cause today to be a mess, if it develops. Currently some showers/storms moving through from Central back to SW OK. Looks like another late night complex of storms will form in the Northern Panhandle and move over OK through the overnight, reaching the metro around 3AM on Wednesday. Moisture return today is looking to be pretty meh. CAPE during peak heating looks to only get up to 1500 to 1800 j/kg.
Wednesday
Enhanced Risk expanded to cover SW OK and also the southern part of the metro, back to the south and east along the Red River. Slight Risk surrounds it, with a marginal risk north of that. GFS appears to be favored model from SPC that develops storms early over Central OK along the warm front. By afternoon it continues these storms and increases them, but also gets a complex fired over in SW OK. Early convection is going to impact how the afternoon plays out so right now it is going to be a sloppy forecast with high bust potential. It should be noted that looking at GFS's forecast sounding over OKC at 4PM highlights a very favorable wind profile for rotating storms. If we get more heating to get higher instability, supercells with large hail and tornadoes would be very plausible.
Thursday
Not much, except maybe some storms along the Red River.
Friday
A lot of uncertainty still. Neg tilt trough will move through, but Euro has sped up slightly getting it through by early afternoon. GFS still very fast in getting Central OK cleared out. At this point SPC has not outline dit yet, but is closely monitoring.
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