General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[Anonymous.]

Was just about to come and post about that. CU field is actually becoming pretty healthy. We may see these break through in the next couple hours.

[venture]

CU field in Major, Custer and Dewey counties is really looking interesting now. Newest HRRR is also picking up on development now further south on the dryline into this area. Quite possible we might be looking at development actually taking place now that everyone has backed off of it. LOL

[mblackwell]

No cap-o-doom in place?

[venture]

No cap-o-doom in place?

It is still keeping a lid on things from going crazy, but definitely seems a few storms will bust through.

[venture]

Cell trying to go up now in that CU field in Major County, SW of Fairview.

[John1744]

In regards to the cap, is it basically once these storms are able to start popping the cap breaks and it's easier for storms to continue building? I may be completely wrong as I'm still learning.

[venture]

In regards to the cap, is it basically once these storms are able to start popping the cap breaks and it's easier for storms to continue building? I may be completely wrong as I'm still learning.

That usually what happens. When you watch it sometimes you'll see one go up and then fall. The a new one will try and get it a little further and then die. It can go on for quite some time or you can have one that breaks through faster. Now as we get into after dark we usually see inhibition increase and caps strengthen, so it gets more difficult.

Right now we have a cell right near Fairview. It made a good attempt but hit the cap and is falling back down now. There is a lot of CU increasing in that area so chances are another cell will make a run at it.

[Anonymous.]

I like how the most important OK radar today is down...

[OKCisOK4me]

Better today than tomorrow.


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[venture]

Last shot of storms today in Woods and Alfalfa counties right now trying to go up. Further south on the dryline CU are starting to die out. On notable thing is that moisture return from the gulf is well into SE OK now.

[mblackwell]

Interesting about the moisture return from the Gulf. That does nothing but give a little bump to storm chances in W OK tomorrow, right?

[venture]

Interesting about the moisture return from the Gulf. That does nothing but give a little bump to storm chances in W OK tomorrow, right?

Yup.

Here is the latest HRRR. It apparently didn't get the memo about the cap.

[venture]

Vance radar is back. So we are good for tomorrow.

18Z models... NAM has nothing for a lot of people tomorrow - even tones down the stuff up in the moderate risk to just cold front storms. GFS keeps with the isolated to scattered storms in the afternoon/evening.

This is good to see though the day before any storms - moisture coming back...

[Bunty]

Looks like we get ripped off again with our storms here in Oklahoma particularly central Oklahoma!!

What? Oklahoma City actually gets bypassed by the weather sometimes?

[bchris02]

It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.

[Charlie40]

It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.

But we need the severe weather for a little excitement also. otherwise just rain gets a little boring.

[venture]

It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.

If NAM verifies, many locations are going to be lucky to get anything. If we have severe weather, then having it initiate in western OK is the best option. We need storms to fire. We are pretty much at the point, especially in western and NW OK, that any moisture regardless of what it comes with it needed now. The severe stuff isn't preferable, but we are running out of time before the dry season really kicks in.

So really quick on the 00Z NAM. Cap is essentially gone tomorrow afternoon but it wants to continue to be a pain with surface initialization. I have to think with this deep moisture finally getting into a place and good dryline out west, with upper level energy coming in, and a cold front coming down from the north...something has to give. Truth be told every forecast you get from anyone tonight is going to be based off of 1) previous experience and 2) a best guess / gut call.

Today we didn't have all the good ingredients in place and the dryline still bubbled up pretty good with a decent cap in place. Logic dictates that tomorrow should have better results in storm production. With that said, I'll wait for the next couple of models (GFS and Euro) to make a final call for tomorrow...even then, we might just be a nowcasting situation all day.

Sample forecast soundings...first is from Clinton and second is from Norman.



Norman:

[bchris02]

What about the cold front? The local meteorologists say our best shot at rain will be from cold front storms early Monday morning rather than whatever may fire off the dryline.

[venture]

What about the cold front? The local meteorologists say our best shot at rain will be from cold front storms early Monday morning rather than whatever may fire off the dryline.

What about it? It is still planned to come through overnight Sunday into Monday.

[venture]

Day 1 maintains slight risk for Central and Western OK. It pulled the MDT risk back into NC KS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF OK/TX SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BY 22-23Z. WHILE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...AND A FEW OTHER
HIGH-RES MODELS...DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
IT WOULD APPEAR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THIS
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY.

[venture]

GFS at 10PM...



Hoping for a lot of rain? Hope storms pop.

GFS has less than a 0.10". NAM maybe a half inch.

Euro pops storms on the dryline but doesn't sustain. It brings in some storms with the front, but amounts generally half inch or less.

[venture]

Monday could be interesting depending on what happens later tonight into early Monday. This is updraft helicity at 4PM Monday...



Simulated Radar...

[venture]

HRRR at 4PM lights up the Panhandle and W/C KS. It'll be interesting to see if things build down a little further into Oklahoma.

[Charlie40]

Like I said looks like we get the short end of the stick again. Sigh

[venture]

Looking at the 13Z HRRR, storms firing in SW KS between 2-3 PM and will fill out to the NE. Secondary area of initiation then in Western North Texas between 5 and 6PM moving into SW OK by 7PM. Current surface has the dryline well back into the TX panhandle, but I would expect that to mix east fairly quickly to allow for storms to initiate by late this afternoon(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsub...ot=1&domain=t5). Cold front should remove north of the state until 9PM when it enters NW OK.