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Thread: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

  1. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    NAM has slowed some since yesterday's run. Based on that, outlined (in red) area below is the area with the risk of severe weather tomorrow. It looks like there is still a chance anything south of Highway 9 will be suppressed, but we'll see how things evolve tomorrow.



    12Z GFS keeps wabbling and is a little faster than NAM still. It is further north with the precip though, keep it north of Guthrie/Stillwater and slowly spreading further south as it gets well east of the Metro.

    This is going to be one of those last minute calls based on exact placement of the boundaries tomorrow morning.

  2. #227

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    NAM has slowed some since yesterday's run. Based on that, outlined area below is the area with the risk of severe weather tomorrow. It looks like there is still a chance anything south of Highway 9 will be suppressed, but we'll see how things evolve tomorrow.



    12Z GFS keeps wabbling and is a little faster than NAM still. It is further north with the precip though, keep it north of Guthrie/Stillwater and slowly spreading further south as it gets well east of the Metro.

    This is going to be one of those last minute calls based on exact placement of the boundaries tomorrow morning.
    When you say outlined, I assume you mean the red? Hmm. I was going to go up to Edmond tomorrow afternoon but I think I will put it off until next week.

  3. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Yes sorry...I fixed it.

  4. #229

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Yes sorry...I fixed it.
    Are those 850mb winds? I see two sets of barbs. Cool graphics though.

  5. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by LocoAko View Post
    Are those 850mb winds? I see two sets of barbs. Cool graphics though.
    I really need to label better. Sorry surface winds. Then CAPE is outlined but not shaded in. The shaded in areas are surface dewpoint.

  6. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Updated Day 2 shrinks the MDT risk area quite a bit.

    ...S-CNTRL CONUS...
    12Z/SAT RAOBS IN THE WRN GULF COAST STATES SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED EML
    WITH A CAP AROUND 850 MB AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-13 G/KG.
    ANOTHER DAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF LOWER
    TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS
    VALLEY. ABUNDANT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
    AND NRN MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
    OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT WEAKENING
    OF UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ELEVATED
    CONVECTION ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CAP MAY DEVELOP LATE D1 INTO EARLY D2
    ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS SUGGEST THIS
    ACTIVITY WOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY STRENGTHEN WITH
    DIURNAL HEATING...POTENTIALLY YIELDING PRE-FRONTAL/DRYLINE SEVERE
    STORMS FROM E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

    THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON SUN
    AFTERNOON INVOF THE TRIPLE-POINT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
    DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS FORMING AROUND
    MIDDAY NEAR/NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE KS.
    GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT HERE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE MEAN
    WIND ALONG WITH THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION
    SHOULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING SEVERE
    HAIL/WIND.

    FARTHER S FROM CNTRL OK TO N-CNTRL TX...INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE
    SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    APPROACH 90 DEG F ACROSS SW OK/NW TX. MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG...STEEP
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
    POSSIBILITY OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
    FEW TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE SUN EVENING AND
    POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE NRN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS THE OZARK
    PLATEAU...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK SHIFTING E/SEWD OVER THE
    MID-SOUTH SUN NIGHT.

    Probabilities
    Brown = 5%, Yellow = 15%, Red = 30%, Purple = 45% -- White = Hatched 15% significant threat area

    Moderate Risk is also contained in the Purple area and the Slight risk is the areas in the yellow area.

  7. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Protect the plants if you already put any out.

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    131 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

    OKZ004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048-130245-
    /O.NEW.KOUN.FZ.A.0001.140415T0800Z-140415T1400Z/
    HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
    NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
    BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
    CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-GREER-KIOWA-COMANCHE-
    STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
    PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
    CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
    KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
    ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
    CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
    HOLDENVILLE...MANGUM...HOBART...LAWTON...DUNCAN... PAULS VALLEY...
    SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO... ATOKA
    131 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

    ...FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY...

    * MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: 27 TO 32 DEGREES F.

    * IMPACTS: TENDER VEGETATION WOULD BE AFFECTED DURING THE EXPECTED
    2 TO 6 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THINK ABOUT HOW YOU WILL PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS FROM THE COLD.

  8. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Reiterating the theme for tomorrow - it all depends where the boundaries end up.

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    201 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

    .DISCUSSION...
    EXTREMELY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH
    WINDS ABOUT 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING
    INTO THE EVENING TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
    OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN
    TIMING, BUT THEY BOTH PUSH THE DRYLINE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND
    SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT RACING SOUTH. BY
    NOON THE DRYLINE MAY BE NEAR AN EL RENO TO WALTERS LINE - THIS
    TAKING THE AVERAGE OF POSITIONS BETWEEN THESE 2 MODELS. THE
    SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE LEFT OUT OF
    PRECIPITATION CHANCES; HOWEVER, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
    LIKELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY. THE WINDOW IS
    BASICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING FAST. THE
    BIG STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS (APPROACHING WIND
    ADVISORY) AND THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
    RANGE FROM THE 90S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE 60S IN THE
    NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S
    AND LOWER 40 EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH IS
    EFFECTIVE EARLY TUESDAY OF MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
    WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER
    30S.

  9. #234

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    90's one day, mid-30's the next....lived in Oklahoma (nearly) all my life, lots of seasons, but the Jekyll-and-Hyde weather never ceases to amaze...

  10. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Some CU going up along the dryline in NW OK. Cap is pretty strong today, but they might be able to bust one through out west. If any make it through large hail is the main threat.

  11. #236

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    It's a good thing fire danger levels aren't well up there across much of the state. Today has been one of April's windiest days.

  12. #237

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    For those who may not know, downtown Oklahoma City finally has its own wundergroud web page. It features rapid fire data and a stunning webcam view of downtown. What more could you ask for?! It's at: Weather History for Weather Station KOKOKLAH72 | Weather Underground

  13. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    It appears the dryline is about to go in KS and possible NW OK. CU is increasing rapidly up there.

  14. #239

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    protect the plants if you already put any out.

    Urgent - weather message
    national weather service norman ok
    131 pm cdt sat apr 12 2014

    okz004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048-130245-
    /o.new.koun.fz.a.0001.140415t0800z-140415t1400z/
    harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
    noble-roger mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
    beckham-wa****a-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
    cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-greer-kiowa-comanche-
    stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-carter-johnston-atoka-
    including the cities of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
    Ponca city...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ...
    Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a...
    Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk city...sayre...cordell...
    Anadarko...yukon...el reno...mustang...oklahoma city...chandler...
    Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
    Holdenville...mangum...hobart...lawton...duncan... pauls valley...
    Sulphur...ada...coalgate...ardmore...tishomingo... atoka
    131 pm cdt sat apr 12 2014

    ...freeze watch is in effect early tuesday...

    * minimum temperature: 27 to 32 degrees f.

    * impacts: Tender vegetation would be affected during the expected
    2 to 6 hours below freezing.

    Precautionary/preparedness actions...

    Think about how you will protect sensitive plants from the cold.
    )(&(*^*$^%#^%#%(*&(*^&*$^%#%^$^&$#%$#%$# words i am not allowed to say on here!!!!!!

  15. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    New Day 1 should be out soon. 00Z NAM puts the Metro in play for severe weather tomorrow. 00Z GFS pushes it to the NE. New Euro will be out in an hour or so.

    Chat room is up and going with the new platform I'm trying now. Twitter feeds are pulled out of the chat directly. Tested the new layout on an 8" tablet and it fit pretty well. Will try to have a mobile phone version done by tomorrow.

  16. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    New Moderate Risk area is in Yellow, area to the east of the green line is in the slight risk.


  17. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Day 1 Text

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1254 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

    VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
    PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MS
    VALLEY...

    ...NRN OK/SE KS/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY...
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
    EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
    COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK
    BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE BY MID
    AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIRST IN ERN KS AND THEN EXPANDING SSWWD
    ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NCNTRL OK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
    INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS
    AND OUACHITA MTNS OF ERN OK. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS
    SCENARIO...DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A
    POSSIBILITY OF MCS FORMATION DURING THE EVENING.

    NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR WICHITA KS SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 21Z
    SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
    J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT IS FORECAST WITH 850
    TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
    BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS SUPERCELLS ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD
    FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
    ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUBSTANTIAL THAT
    NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
    AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...A
    POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD
    EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ANYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE
    DRYLINE. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON.

    FURTHER TO THE EAST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
    INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITA MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR SHOW SBCAPE
    VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. ANY
    STORM THAT CAN INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...COULD HAVE A
    POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
    INCREASE AS MORE WIDESPREAD FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION
    FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.

    ...SRN OK/NORTH TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
    MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN
    PLACE FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX HILL
    COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
    MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INITIATE UNTIL LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. THE
    CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
    INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NORTH TX FROM LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO
    SMALL CLUSTERS...MOVING EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE EVENING.

    FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ARDMORE OK AND DALLAS TX AT 00Z/MON SHOW
    MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
    850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
    SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
    DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. IN
    ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONGLY
    VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS
    WILL RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS
    ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
    TORNADO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.


    ..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 04/13/2014

  18. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014






  19. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    To make the forecast nice and complicated tomorrow...here are some items from the 4Z HRRR that runs through 2PM.

    Shield of light/moderate rain developing next few hours over TX moving north. Rain will move through the metro between 6 and 9AM.

    By 11AM looks like initiation over NE KS that will fill down near the OK border by 2PM. HRRR does limit instability quite a bit and moves most of it into NE OK by early afternoon. It wants to have the dryline through here by Noon.

    In contrast, the new 00Z Euro has the dryline moving through around 3-5PM in the afternoon. It also has instability up over 2000 j/kg for portions of the I-35 corridor. Euro initializes the dryline along I-44 by 1PM and moves it into the metro by 3PM.

    Looks like an "early" show, so we'll take a look at things here in a few hours.

  20. #245

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    So is this looking like it may be a Tulsa event more than an OKC one? If I have plans at 7:30 tonight, should this be over by then?

  21. #246

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Tulsa plans? It doesn't look like "it" will be over but I suppose it depends in what "it" is and your tolerance for rough weather. Hail doesn't bother me if I'm home but I rescheduled my Afternoon Edmond trip because I didn't want to be out in it. If if was something big, like a wedding, I would have gone as things sit, right now. That's just me.

  22. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Short range models and the more traditional models are in conflict right now on where storms initiate.

    12Z NAM


    12Z HRRR

  23. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    MOD risk is gone per SPC, here is the specific outlook for Oklahoma...

    ...ERN KS TO CENTRAL/ERN OK AND AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
    THE INITIAL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
    WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER N TX/OK/KS TODAY...REACHING MO/AR BY EARLY
    TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE
    SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A LEE CYCLONE IN SW KS THIS MORNING WILL
    WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE NEWD TO NW MO BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
    CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IL TO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
    LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN AND WRN
    OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT SURFACE
    HEATING AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ASIDE FROM A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG
    THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
    THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED BENEATH LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
    RATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.

    THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
    NE OF THE DRYLINE-COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
    RATHER MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS
    LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THUS...ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
    TEND TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WELL NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT
    /ESPECIALLY IN KS/ AND STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG
    THE COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A
    RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
    EWD/SEWD FROM SE KS/ERN OK TO AR. MEANWHILE ...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
    BE STRONGER IN PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE POTENTIAL
    EXISTS FOR AN ANCHOR SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
    AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

  24. #249

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    Nice clearing ahead of dryline. Beginning to see dryline bulge out in extreme SW OK.

  25. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2014

    CU development ahead of the dryline and cold front back to the NW is going really well now.

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