Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

[venture]

T-storms beginning to form over Tulsa and points to the northeast.

Nothing to severe in 20 minutes. Won't take long for the front to fire up down into the Metro area here soon.

Live chat is rolling at chatokc.com for those interested.

[Tydude]

Northeastern Part of the state is getting hit hard by the storms right now

[SkyWestOKC]

Well, I am finally in the air towards OKC. Been stressful, but it looks like I had nothing to worry about. Storms look huge from up here.

[SkyWestOKC]

http://img857.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200073.jpg/
http://img855.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200074.jpg/

[SkyWestOKC]

http://img90.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200075.jpg/

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service tulsa ok
542 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

the national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northern okfuskee county in east central oklahoma
southern creek county in northeast oklahoma
western okmulgee county in northeast oklahoma

* until 630 pm cdt

* at 539 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 6 miles north of paden...moving east at 25 mph.

* some locations in or near the path of this storm include...welty...
Okfuskee...slick and beggs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are near the path of this storm...take cover now! If no
underground shelter is available move to an interior room on the
lowest floor. Mobile homes and vehicles should be abandoned for more
substantial shelter. Avoid windows!

[venture]

Sorry for the delay in info, trying to keep the chat up to date too right now.

[jn1780]

Well, the really good rain missed again. Maybe we will have more luck with the rest of the weekend. After that it looks dry at least until the second week of May.

[venture]

Latest HRRR model run...there is hope still:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

[venture]

Mesoscale discussion 0527
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0939 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

areas affected...ok/wrn ar

concerning...tornado watch 180...

Valid 230239z - 230345z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 180 continues.

Tornado watch 180 will be extended until 05z for srn and ern ok and
nwrn ar.

Several supercells persist across the watch area...with a few strong
couplets from time to time. Although some boundary layer cooling is
occurring and storms may be interfering with each other...a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours given shear in
place as latest objective analysis indicates 300-400 m2/s2 effective
srh. In addition...large hail is likely along with heavy rain.

..jewell.. 04/23/2011


attn...wfo...lzk...sgf...shv...tsa...oun...

[venture]

New storms firing in SW OK are moving NE towards the Metro area...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK ...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230410Z - 230615Z

WE ARE MONITORING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEHIND EARLIER
CONVECTION...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN OK. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR.

SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK INTO SRN MO DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SOME CELLS ARE LEFT SPLITS...AND MAY EFFECT ADJACENT NRN COUNTIES TO
THE ONGOING BAND OF STORMS OVER SRN OK. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N ANY
SPLITS WILL GO. HOWEVER...FARTHER N INTO THE COOLER AIR...MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP FROM
NRN OK INTO SRN MO. WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED IF THE
THREAT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH.

..JEWELL.. 04/23/2011

[venture]

Ww 184 severe tstm ok 230435z - 231100z
axis..35 statute miles north and south of line..
5ne rkr/poteau ok/ - 40ssw chk/chickasha ok/
..aviation coords.. 30nm n/s /23sw fsm - 39nne sps/
hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHICKASHA
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180. WATCH NUMBER 180 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1135 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN
OK IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST CORES INCLUDING ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE 40-50KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.


WS 0184
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[venture]

Just going to post the SPC outlooks for now, don't have much time to dive into the models with it being a holiday weekend.

Slight Risk today is south/east of a line from Altus > Hobart > El Reno > Edmond > Cushing > Tulsa > Jay. This includes all but the far northern and western OKC metro areas. With in that risk area are two different time tables and risk potentials.

The afternoon risk area is across the southern 2 tiers of counties. This area could see conditions similar to yesterday for very large hail and damaging winds and a tornado or two. North of that, including the metro area, will be the risk for storms to develop overnight and produce large hail. These will be elevated storms so the risk of tornadoes will be extremely slim.

SPC Day 1 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...TX/OK/AR...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HEATING
AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST
TX AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TX/AR THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE/CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT
A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTH
CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS OK WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HAILSTORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT
ACROSS THIS REGION.

For Easter Sunday...

New Day 2 isn't out yet, will post once they publish it.

SPC Day 2 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Monday...

Typical pattern to what we are use to. The slight risk area is mainly east of I-35. The risk area is south and east of a line from Pawhuska > Stillwater > Chickasha > Waurika. This would include the eastern and southern counties of the Metro area.

SPC Day 3 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID
OH VALLEY REGION...
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES.

WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN
BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO
PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE
LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A
FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT.

Tuesday...

Severe risk is limited to far SE OK, won't really go into much detail. For more information check out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[venture]

Easter Sunday Outlook...

Slight risk of severe weather for all of Oklahoma except for extreme NW OK and a few counties along the TX Panhandle border.

Hatched area, or enhanced risk area, is in place from Frederick to Anadarko to Oklahoma City to Bartlesville and to the east.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WSWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE SWRN
STATES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
THROUGH SRN PA...OH VALLEY...NRN AR AND INTO SERN OK TO CENTRAL TX
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE PA PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY
SSEWD INTO WV...NRN VA TO DELMARVA WHERE IT SHOULD STALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
RETREAT NWD ACROSS NRN TX AND ERN OK AND MORE PROMINENTLY INTO
CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IND AS A BROAD LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS TO AR/SRN MO...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND AR INTO SRN MO NEAR
AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER OK
PRODUCING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT AT 12Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
FARTHER S...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUBJECT TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
SLOWLY EWD...HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR
AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TX AND INTO OK/AR. IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO WSWLY
AT 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION...A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH THREATS FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD SRN
MO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
EWD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND/OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF OF THE FRONT AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG
IT FROM SRN OK INTO SWRN-CENTRAL MO SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO SRN MO
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOWER LCLS AND
SUPPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. DESPITE A
VEERED/BACKED WINDS AT MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A LINEAR MODE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING FROM OK INTO SRN MO...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT
AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR.

[Thunder]

Nothing like a good ole Easter Day with kids running around for eggs and a tornado across the horizon swirling the skyline.

[Easy180]

Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?

[venture]

Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?

We will see some activity tonight and into tomorrow morning and then clear out and more activity fire up in the afternoon. Not saying a total wash out for tomorrow, but there is that chance. Which most people won't really complain about this year.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK WITHIN THEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
CONTINUED HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

[jn1780]

LOL, I came across this video on the internet. Did anyone here make it?

[Achilleslastand]

So is the metro area still getting rain tonight,tomorrow and monday?

[venture]

Storms are starting to develop in Central and NE OK. Movement will be to the NE around 30 mph. Large hail will be main threat.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
906 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

* at 906 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near meeker...moving northeast at 35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golfballs...

* locations in the warning include davenport...meeker...sparks and
stroud.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240208Z - 240345Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND ERN OK...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER E CNTRL OK IN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...AND
SEVERAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..JEWELL.. 04/24/2011

[venture]

Ww 191 severe tstm ok tx 240255z - 241000z axis..80 statute miles east and west of line..
35ene bvo/bartlesville ok/ - 20ssw gyi/sherman tx/ ..aviation coords.. 70nm e/w /16sw osw - 37nne dfw/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...WW 190...

DISCUSSION...WITH CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NWD THRU ERN HALF OF
OK. WITH MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND BRN SHEAR OF
40-50KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Severe thunderstorm watch probabilities for ws 0191 nws storm prediction center norman ok
0951 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

ws 0191
probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : <05%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : <02%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 20%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 10%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 60%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 30%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 80%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.5
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 24035
particularly dangerous situation : No