January '10 Weather Discussion

[OKCMallen]

50th and Western: at 740am, my driveway was completely dry, but by the time I was almost downtown at 815, everything was wet. Everything. When it ices, it'll be dangerous without much more water on top of it.

[Thunder]

It's so beautiful!



And yes, it's all ice. :-O

[Thunder]

SPC Sounding Analysis Page - 01/28/2010 12 UTC

Venture, look at the indication for the 850 area, getting colder, right? Colder than previously expected? So, does this mean that it's back to sleet/snow changeover much earlier than expected? Translate it for me. lol

[PennyQuilts]

50th and Western: at 740am, my driveway was completely dry, but by the time I was almost downtown at 815, everything was wet. Everything. When it ices, it'll be dangerous without much more water on top of it.

Go home. Better now than later.

[OKCMallen]

Go home. Better now than later.

I appreciate that! However, I don't sign my own paycheck, so I'm going to have to stay...

[PennyQuilts]

I appreciate that! However, I don't sign my own paycheck, so I'm going to have to stay...

Well, please drive carefully when you go home. I hope you have a blanket in the car.

[OUman]

We're starting to get some sleet now in Norman.

[bretthexum]

The afternoon rush is going to be a nightmare. Hopefully employers let people go early.

[bandnerd]

Can't take credit for this, and forgive me if it has been posted before in similar times:

SNOW…….klahoma
Where the cold front's sweepin' down the plain
And the piles of sleet, beneath your feet
Follow right behind the freezing rain.

SNOW…….klahoma
Ev'ry night my honey lamb and I
Travel home from work and hope some jerk
Doesn’t wreck our car in passing by!

We know we belong to the land
But it could use more salt and more sand…

That’s why we say….. WHOA!
We’re slidin’ the other way…….. YIKES!

We’re only sayin’
You’re slick as snot SNOWklahoma…
SNOWklahoma
SNOW-K-l-a-h-o-m-a
SNOWKlahoma….SNOW K!

[PennyQuilts]

hahaha!!

Husband thinks he is going to Sonic for lunch even though he doesn't need to leave the house. Dumb Okie... <bg>

[oneforone]

This live local coverage on all four stations is getting redundant.

We know it's icy...... We know we need to stay home if we have a choice... We know what snow looks like on windshields, bridges and sidewalks. One local viewer had the audicity to report their FRONT PORCH WAS COVERED WITH ICE.

The least they could do is add some slapstick comedy. Show cars crashing, people falling on their keisters, cars spinning like tops, throw in a few cartoon noises and we could make this thing fun.

Something like this.....

YouTube - Winter Car Slide Multiple Car Collision in Black Ice & snow - Car Crashes in Ice

[westsidesooner]

I agree onefor

If the radar out of fredrick is any indication there is a much heavier area of precipitation moving in from southwest Oklahoma. Looks kinda ominous.

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Frederick, OK

[sacolton]

Is this storm sputtering out? It's mostly just wet - no ice on the roads.

[westsidesooner]

Is this storm sputtering out? It's mostly just wet - no ice on the roads.

It was 65 yesterday....give it time. Much heavier rain is heading towards the city and should be here this afternoon.....lets hope it turns to sleet before that.

This should be an interesting site to watch for the next few hours.....no power outages yet but I bet it goes up bigtime between now and 6pm

http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...SRN...NERN AND N-CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME
NWRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281818Z - 282215Z

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING TOWARD
E-CENTRAL/NERN OK AND EXTREME NWRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
MOISTEN WITH TIME...LEADING TO SLEET TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TOWARD
00Z. FARTHER S OVER S-CENTRAL OK...DRY AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING THE WET BULB ZERO LINE TO SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE RED RIVER...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN.

AT 17Z...SFCOA DATA INDICATED THE WET BULB ZERO LINE EXTENDED FROM
ROUGHLY FSM/W-CENTRAL AR TO A LOCATION IMMEDIATELY S OF FSI IN
SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NELY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF OK WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD
S-CENTRAL OK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SWD PUSH OF THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE TOWARD THE RED RIVER. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO THE SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WITH A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE /5-6 DEG C/ CENTERED NEAR 850 MB PER 15Z OUN
SPECIAL SOUNDING. AS THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD INTO OK...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK...PERHAPS SPREADING SWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
TOWARD 00Z OVER S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB SUGGESTIVE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES.

OTHERWISE...AS THE 40-50 KT S-SELY LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD WITH THE
EMERGING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD EVENING...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN OK INTO EXTREME NWRN
AR...AT WHICH POINT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS RAPID WET BULB COOLING
AND MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN THE ONSET OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET. FARTHER W FROM
CENTRAL INTO N-CENTRAL OK...FREEZING RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO SLEET
MORE QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WITH SNOW BECOMING
MORE PROBABLE TOWARD 00Z PER SREF GUIDANCE.

..GARNER.. 01/28/2010

[PennyQuilts]

English please? I got some of it...

[oknacreous]

The upshot of it is that freezing rain will be the primary precip type in the OKC area, with increasing rain rates the next few hours. Good evidence is the increase in lightning and radar echo intensity in southern Oklahoma and north Texas moving north into the cold air. Starting to hear reports of power outages and large trees limbs coming down in SW Oklahoma. Expect similar impacts here in a few hours. Changeover to sleet/snow will very very slowly push southeast but will take a while to get into Central Oklahoma (well after dark, though some sleet will mix in briefly from time to time).

[Bostonfan]

It was 65 yesterday....give it time. Much heavier rain is heading towards the city and should be here this afternoon.....lets hope it turns to sleet before that.

This should be an interesting site to watch for the next few hours.....no power outages yet but I bet it goes up bigtime between now and 6pm

OG&E System Watch

I'm not able to get a full screen view. I can't tell anything from this. Am I the only one having trouble seeing it?


NM, got it. It helps to read, lol.

[PennyQuilts]

The upshot of it is that freezing rain will be the primary precip type in the OKC area, with increasing rain rates the next few hours. Good evidence is the increase in lightning and radar echo intensity in southern Oklahoma and north Texas moving north into the cold air. Starting to hear reports of power outages and large trees limbs coming down in SW Oklahoma. Expect similar impacts here in a few hours. Changeover to sleet/snow will very very slowly push southeast but will take a while to get into Central Oklahoma (well after dark, though some sleet will mix in briefly from time to time).

I was hoping I just didn't understand it. Thanks!

[PennyQuilts]

We are getting ice. Even the nonground birds are huddled on the ground beneath the Cedars outside my sewing room. My trees are covered in ice but you can't tell unless you touch them. I'm seeing some silver - 'spect it won't be long before it starts to look pretty. Uh oh... just got my first power flicker...

[westsidesooner]

Seeing some of the tree damage coming out of sw Ok is depressing. I hope it changes over to sleet soon. Watching an icestorm unfold is alot like watching a hurricane headed your way....absolutely nothing you can do to protect your power or trees. Ice cycles on roof already about 1 foot with about 1/4" buildup on the trees on the westside.

[Bunty]

lol, The Stillwater Regional Airport is reporting something I've never seen before-- "unknown precipitation". They're at freezing 32, so I guess they can't determine if what's coming down is freezing or not.

[venture]

lol, The Stillwater Regional Airport is reporting something I've never seen before-- "unknown precipitation". They're at freezing 32, so I guess they can't determine if what's coming down is freezing or not.

That actually happens quite a bit. Sometimes the AWOS system can't tell the difference between large wet snowflakes and rain or sleet.

[PennyQuilts]

It is starting to "frill up" on the trees out here west of the airport. I have my birdcam set up on a time lapse and am interested in seeing if it catches the ice growing. The birds are pretty upset - I may go pour out some food under the overhang of the house. Their regular feeder is out in the pasture and I'm not inclined to go refill it.

[venture]

18Z NAM has precip ending with the first wave around 3AM in Central sections. It looks like it will remain all freezing rain with some sleet mixing in. It does continue the development of snow across Central sections Friday afternoon with 3-6" possible if this develops.