April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SoonerDave]

Not weather-related, but Morgan needs to proofread, that is absolutely pathetic WRT to the way the English language is supposed to be written.

Appropriate, because Morgan is kinda pathetic anyway

[SoonerDave]

Unless I am completely misreading it, which is entirely possible, it looks to me like the NAM has backed *way* off Saturday storm potential and moved more into late-night/early Sunday. Will be interesting to see if later HRRR runs follow suit.

[kukblue1]

Unless I am completely misreading it, which is entirely possible, it looks to me like the NAM has backed *way* off Saturday storm potential and moved more into late-night/early Sunday. Will be interesting to see if later HRRR runs follow suit.

Yes and no Does show line of storms around the metro at midnight but also keeps trying to form storms in Western Oklahoma all afternoon. They look like little tiny storms but the signal is there that's its trying tor form storms. One by Woodward 1 pm, Another small blimp 5pm far western Oklahoma on i-40

[C_M_25]

Yes and no Does show line of storms around the metro at midnight but also keeps trying to form storms in Western Oklahoma all afternoon. They look like little tiny storms but the signal is there that's its trying tor form storms. One by Woodward 1 pm, Another small blimp 5pm far western Oklahoma on i-40

Those are high elevation storms throughout the day. Basically, there’s a ton of energy and moisture with limited cap expected so it’s easy for those storms to fire. The high res NAM fires storms pretty much just west of the city. It’s easy to look at that and say it will line out and not be a problem. If you look close, there are dozens of individual supercells, and they’re going to go up spinning given the atmosphere parameters. The models don’t show massive super cells that stay isolated for a long time but I’m willing to bet the several of those small individual storms drop tornadoes before lining out just east of the city.

[kukblue1]

Those are high elevation storms throughout the day. Basically, there’s a ton of energy and moisture with limited cap expected so it’s easy for those storms to fire. The high res NAM fires storms pretty much just west of the city. It’s easy to look at that and say it will line out and not be a problem. If you look close, there are dozens of individual supercells, and they’re going to go up spinning given the atmosphere parameters. The models don’t show massive super cells that stay isolated for a long time but I’m willing to bet the several of those small individual storms drop tornadoes before lining out just east of the city.

Have you seen the 00Z HRRR wow.

[kukblue1]

Tonight threat seems to get later and later. 5am time frame and maybe a bit further south? I haven't look at all the models don't have time right now anything new to report?

[PoliSciGuy]

Have you seen the 00Z HRRR wow.

Early convection comes through but doesn't erode the atmosphere enough to prevent a monster supercell from traveling up I-44 from Chickasha through the metro at 7pm. Just one run of one CAM but a heckuva run nonetheless. I think we see the SPC pull the trigger on a day 2 MDT

[Anonymous.]

MD is out across NW TX. Should see a watch issued soon for developing MCS and potential to gain momentum as it speeds toward OK.

[SEMIweather]

We certainly aren’t out of the woods, but convective trends and recent model runs do lead me to believe that the bullseye for tonight’s severe weather threat has shifted somewhat south of the Metro. We shall see, I won’t be staying up until 4:00 a.m. for it lol.

(But I might just stay up another hour to see if the SPC does roll with a Day 2 Moderate for Saturday’s event.)

[kukblue1]

There could be a storm or two east of the Metro later today on Friday and Saturday. I don't know. I don't think anybody knows. Yes we might have morning convection which will help some but the atmosphere may be so juiced up that it won't take much sun to come out after the morning convection to get things rolling again

[bison34]

400am was a blast last night (sarcasm). Got some nice rain, and got quite a bit of small hail.

[stratosphere]

So what is the setup for tomorrow?

[Anonymous.]

Latest HRRR for tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon is pretty wild. Shows clusters of supercells firing ahead of the dryline that are short-lived and then firing a primary batch on the dryline shortly after.

After last night's MCS, flooding risk south of I-44 is high for tomorrow evening.

[kukblue1]

Need to make it through today still https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1783885429063987686

Update with what a model is showing. 11:20am https://x.com/PaxBiggs/status/1783893284974219588

[SoonerDave]

Need to make it through today still https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1783885429063987686

Update with what a model is showing. 11:20am https://x.com/PaxBiggs/status/1783893284974219588

So if I am reading this correctly the area of concern is essentially along and east of I-35 but *especially* focusing in NE Oklahoma with this late morning dynamic into the early evening.

[kukblue1]

So if I am reading this correctly the area of concern is essentially along and east of I-35 but *especially* focusing in NE Oklahoma with this late morning dynamic into the early evening.

Little bit farther east probably highway 75 Storm prediction center has even went enhanced and upped the tornado risk to a 10% hatched area for pretty much all of Eastern Oklahoma

[CaptDave]

Oh what I would give for this place to just get rain. No hand wringing over a thunderstorm, no excitement over chasing tornadoes. Just regular old rain without any drama.......

[TheTravellers]

Oh what I would give for this place to just get rain. No hand wringing over a thunderstorm, no excitement over chasing tornadoes. Just regular old rain without any drama.......

Seattle. The weather part of the local news was always about 2 minutes long (if that), never any break-ins to shows, etc.

[SEMIweather]

Dryline is about to move through the Metro which should end our severe threat for the day, although I would say that supercells could form as far west as US-177.

SPC has stayed with an Enhanced Risk for tomorrow, see the below text box for their reasoning. About to look at the 12z suite of convection-allowing models and will probably post my thoughts on tomorrow thereafter.

Due to the influence of the morning convection and potential for messy storm modes/convective evolution Saturday afternoon, confidence was not high enough to include greater tornado and/or hail probabilities across the southern/central Plains at this time.

[SEMIweather]

Tomorrow is still a very complicated setup, but here are my thoughts at the moment.

1) A complex of elevated thunderstorms will develop in Northwest Texas around 6 a.m. or so. Between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m., this complex will lift NE and move through the Metro, accompanied by a risk of large hail. I would expect these storms to stay predominately elevated, but if they arrive towards the end of the timeframe listed in the previous sentence, they could take on some surface-based characteristics, in which case all hazards would be possible, although there probably would not be enough surface-level instability for anything too significant.

2) It does not appear that this complex will result in the formation of a large cold pool. Between that, the favorable moisture profile, and the favorable upper-level dynamics, the atmosphere should be able to quickly destabilize behind this first round of storms. Sometime between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., supercells appear likely to fire along the dryline. The dryline could be located as far east as US-81, but given that the models have tended to overestimate the dryline push thus far this spring, I tend to feel that a more likely positioning is somewhere in the vicinity of the US-183 corridor. It will ultimately be a nowcast situation, and in any case, storms are likely to rapidly intensify shortly after initiation. The potent upper-level trough that is causing this event has trended more amplified in recent model solutions, which seems like it could lead to a messy, semi-discrete storm mode as opposed to a classic discrete supercell event (an older event that I'm thinking of as a potential analog for tomorrow is April 26th, 2016). Nevertheless, parameters should still be more than enough for a significant severe weather event impacting the Metro early tomorrow evening. Tornadoes (some potentially strong), hail up to the size of baseballs, and 70 mph wind gusts all appear possible.

3) Finally, as the main forcing arrives later in the evening, another QLCS will likely sweep across the state overnight. Models appear conflicted as to whether this event will be distinct from the late afternoon dryline initiation, or whether the dryline storms will eventually congeal into a QLCS. Regardless, the QLCS threat should be similar to this morning; predominately damaging wind, with a secondary threat of sporadic large hail and brief tornado spin-ups. Given that the upper-level flow will be of a similar orientation as the dryline/frontal boundary, forward motion of the storms could also be relatively slow, resulting in training storms and a corresponding flooding threat. Storms should move out shortly before the start of the marathon on Sunday Morning.

[C_M_25]

Latest models really not looking great. The HRRR has some strong elevated storms that actually looks to knock back storm chances in the late afternoon, and the high res NAM is showing a line that fires up just east of okc. Sheesh…could use some rain where I’m at as we were missed by the storms the other night. This storm season really hasn’t quite come together so far this year. I guess we’ll see what happens though.

[SoonerDave]

Latest models really not looking great. The HRRR has some strong elevated storms that actually looks to knock back storm chances in the late afternoon, and the high res NAM is showing a line that fires up just east of okc. Sheesh…could use some rain where I’m at as we were missed by the storms the other night. This storm season really hasn’t quite come together so far this year. I guess we’ll see what happens though.

I'm all for getting needed rain, but never going to feel bad when a bad storm forecast goes south. I'll take a calm storm season any year.

[SEMIweather]

I still think we’re going to get a good amount of rain either way tomorrow, so if we could manage to thread the needle with regards to avoiding a high-end severe weather event, that would be great.

Haven’t paid too much attention to anything after tomorrow, but I believe the upcoming pattern for the first half of May continues to favor above-normal precipitation chances, as well. Granted, given the time of year that also likely means continued severe weather chances.

[soonerguru]

I'm all for getting needed rain, but never going to feel bad when a bad storm forecast goes south. I'll take a calm storm season any year.

I'm not as geeked out as some here about NAM and EURO and the other acronyms, so I may need some folks to dumb it down a bit for the folks in the peanut gallery.

I agree with the sentiment expressed here, but Oklahoma County is currently under a flood watch by the NWS. Are we really going to strike out again on getting any significant rain?

[SoonerDave]

I'm not as geeked out as some here about NAM and EURO and the other acronyms, so I may need some folks to dumb it down a bit for the folks in the peanut gallery.

I agree with the sentiment expressed here, but Oklahoma County is currently under a flood watch by the NWS. Are we really going to strike out again on getting any significant rain?

The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming in midday, and the next line much later forming atop or even east of OKC. I think this forecast is complex enough to make any firm predictions really tough. If we do get a line through early AND it "beats up" the atmosphere enough, it might limit how strong the *next* line can get. The key fuel is unstable air, primed for lifting by heat, so if a bunch of storms come through and stabilizes it, there goes your "fuel." But it doesn't preclude rain.

The complexity here is that the first round of storms may not "beat up" the atmosphere enough to *prevent* stronger storms later. Really hard to say with certainty in this dynamic and very likely why SPC hasn't been more aggressive with their outlooks.