Electric Vehicles

[chssooner]

There needs to be a heavy increase in supply to lower prices to where EVs could be affordable enough to be the main cars for most families. But then again, the charging infrastructure isn't there yet. So it is a catch 22.

But EVs and hydrogen cars are the future, so global countries, and the US of course, need to incentivize the production of EVs even further.

[Pete]

^

It's all in progress and momentum is rapidly escalating.

Most automakers are pledging to be EV-only within a decade or two. Plus, there are a ton of start-ups both foreign and domestic that keep coming out of nowhere. Because much fewer moving parts are needed, tech companies can make an immediate impact where the auto industry always had such an incredibly high entry barrier. The industry is moving from being based in the heaviest of heavy industries to more software and tech-oriented. The next car I buy might be from Apple, Sony or a Chinese company.

Lots more entry-level models have started to debut as well. And the infrastructure is being built, it will just take some time primarily because the U.S. is so incredibly spread out. In most other countries, they are further along.


I was planning on a new car in the next couple of years but I might hold out a little longer for all the EV stuff to make another big step forward. I'm a one-car household so I need to wait until an EV can be the only car without stopping every few hours to recharge. I bet in 5 years the EV landscape is going to look completely different than it does today. It reminds of of the early PC era where every couple of years computing power and storage was doubling while prices went lower and lower.

[Pete]

I'm sure Oklahoma will stay behind the curve in adoption because so many people here are loyal to the fossil fuel industry.

But most of the charging infrastructure is funded by the federal gov and private business. And electricity in the state is just about as cheap as anywhere.


This will be fascinating to watch unfold locally.

[TheTravellers]

It sounds like this is not a good choice for a primary vehicle.
I went to Dallas yesterday from Norman in a Accord(V6).
44 bucks round trip with no fuel stops.

Yep, you're absolutely right, and I've mentioned this in a few posts, it's meant as a second car to run around town locally. We took it to Dallas just to see how it would perform, see how charging is, etc. and it's pretty much not going out of OK from now on. Going to Tulsa in December and will probably charge halfway, then once in Tulsa, then halfway again (assuming there are chargers where I want them to be, I haven't researched it yet ).

[Jersey Boss]

While the switch to non fossil fuel vehicles marches forward it will be slow. Manufacturers are commiting to dates in the 2030's but current vehicles remain on the road and are servicable longer than ever. Used to be you were lucky to get 100k in mileage out of a vehicle. Now that is common. Add to the rapid price increases and limited choices folks are keeping what they have.
Plus as noted the land area of the country not only discourages mass transit it also discourages charging stations.

[TheTravellers]

While the switch to non fossil fuel vehicles marches forward it will be slow. Manufacturers are commiting to dates in the 2030's but current vehicles remain on the road and are servicableonger than ever. Used to be you wereucky to get 1ppk in mileage out of a vehicle. Now that is common. Add to the rapid price increases and limited choices fks are keeping what they have.
Plus as noted the land area of the country not only discourages mass transit it also discourages charging stations.

As to your last point - true to an extent, but Francis Energy (an OK company) is planning on putting chargers every 50 miles across middle America, from what I understand. Not every 50 miles on an Interstate, but apparently no matter where you are in middle America (not sure how they define that), you'll never be more than 50 miles away from a charger. Ambitious, hope they can pull it off.

[djohn]

^

Most automakers are pledging to be EV-only within a decade or two.

Wow! Wonder what people who live in apartments will do? ...or people without garages. ...or people who have to park in the street, etc, etc.

[David]

Wow! Wonder what people who live in apartments will do? ...or people without garages. ...or people who have to park in the street, etc, etc.

I'm in this boat. My current speculation is hydrogen but I'm open to see what else might come along.

My understanding is that fuel cells never worked in the past because the technology wasn't there yet, but much of the needed technology is the same that has now been developed for EVs in general. That said, the currently used commercial sources for hydrogen are all fossil fuel based, but you still have advantages with the shift. For example, it's much easier to do carbon capture if your fossil fuel consumption is at specific fixed locations as opposed to distributed out to every single ICE car on the road. There's plenty of money going into so-called green hydrogen as well, so we will have to see how that develops over the next decade.

[catch22]

Wow! Wonder what people who live in apartments will do? ...or people without garages. ...or people who have to park in the street, etc, etc.

Where will people tie up their horses once these horseless carriages are going up and down every Main Street from here to dodge city?

Infrastructure lags innovation. As more and more vehicles switch over you will see solutions to those problems present themselves. In new build urban apartment buildings you will see charging stations built in to the parking structures and may even be at your assigned parking space if you have one you pay for. Lower end apartments or building that only have street parking probably won’t have them but more and more other places might such as grocery stores, large employers, and such. People will charge up elsewhere which will spread demand out from overnight hours when renewables aren’t producing as much.

[Martin]

my prediction: in 30ish years, cars will likely drive themselves and people will subscribe to a ride service instead of owning a vehicle. most people won't have to worry about having a place to park or charge their vehicle.

[Pete]

my prediction: in 30ish years, cars will likely drive themselves and people will subscribe to a ride service instead of owning a vehicle. most people won't have to worry about having a place to park or charge their vehicle.

Considering that most cars sit idle 98% of the time, something like this makes a lot of sense. Even more so in cities -- effectively an on-demand taxi service.

I can look out on my culdesac and see 15 cars just sitting there, as they always are.

[baralheia]

my prediction: in 30ish years, cars will likely drive themselves and people will subscribe to a ride service instead of owning a vehicle. most people won't have to worry about having a place to park or charge their vehicle.

If I'm being honest, I really hope not. While there are absolutely benefits to a transportation-as-a-service model, in most cases it means higher prices and less control for you. The price issue may be less of a concern or even moot if cities decide to operate these ride services as part of their public transportation network, but even so, I'd want to retain ownership over at least one of my transportation options (i.e. personal vehicle, powered bicycle, etc). I feel similarly about entertainment media - streaming is very convenient but I'm shifting my consumption back toward physical media or DRM-free digital files to ensure I maintain control over the media I've paid for.

[Jersey Boss]

my prediction: in 30ish years, cars will likely drive themselves and people will subscribe to a ride service instead of owning a vehicle. most people won't have to worry about having a place to park or charge their vehicle.

Not realistic. Liability/ insurance issues. Number of on call ride service vehicles needed would be problamatic. Nobody boating or camping anymore? No family road trips? I mean c'mon now.



I'm still waiting for this 65 year old prediction

[gjl]

We're only 40 years away from living like the Jetsons.

[fortpatches]

I think the point that most cars aren't being used at any specific point in time somewhat counters the "number of on-call ride services vehicles needed". - You wouldn't need one per person, you would need one for every few people.

I would appreciate it even if my personal car was autonomous - I go to the gym then the office early in the morning, my partner goes to work later in the morning. If once I get to the office, I could send my car home for him to then use to go to work, that would be beneficial.

Also, there are already start-ups for self-driving / autonomous taxi services. Check out Waymo for example. Since these already exist, I wouldn't say they are "not realistic".

[Martin]

If I'm being honest, I really hope not. While there are absolutely benefits to a transportation-as-a-service model, in most cases it means higher prices and less control for you. The price issue may be less of a concern or even moot if cities decide to operate these ride services as part of their public transportation network, but even so, I'd want to retain ownership over at least one of my transportation options (i.e. personal vehicle, powered bicycle, etc). I feel similarly about entertainment media - streaming is very convenient but I'm shifting my consumption back toward physical media or DRM-free digital files to ensure I maintain control over the media I've paid for.

i hear you... just as with anything, there are costs and benefits. i think it will come down to consumer preference and perception if the subscription model ever catches on. no matter what, i don't think that private ownership will completely go away. besides those who hold out based on personal preference, the subscription model will not make sense for all consumers.

[Martin]

Not realistic. Liability/ insurance issues. Number of on call ride service vehicles needed would be problamatic. Nobody boating or camping anymore? No family road trips? I mean c'mon now.

I'm still waiting for this 65 year old prediction

i don't think any of those are concerns that can't be overcome. insurance can just shift to a 'no fault' model. filling variable customer demand, especially during demand surges, will sometimes be a challenge. i think there will be varying subscription tiers with agreements on wait time and ride sharing. those that want an absolute guaranty on availability may still choose the ownership model. i see the subscription model working similar to what cadillac and (i think) volvo tried out... this grants a level of model selection and the ability to 'check out' vehicles for excursions like towing or road trips. for regular towing, people may even choose to own rather than subscribe. i think the system will be somewhat flexible.

self-driving technology definitely isn't mature now. however, i don't think that the challenges are insurmountable as they are with flying cars. it really isn't a good comparison. if the technology doesn't catch on, it will likely be more of an issue of consumer preference rather than limitations of technology.

[aDark]

I think the point that most cars aren't being used at any specific point in time somewhat counters the "number of on-call ride services vehicles needed". - You wouldn't need one per person, you would need one for every few people.

I would appreciate it even if my personal car was autonomous - I go to the gym then the office early in the morning, my partner goes to work later in the morning. If once I get to the office, I could send my car home for him to then use to go to work, that would be beneficial.

Also, there are already start-ups for self-driving / autonomous taxi services. Check out Waymo for example. Since these already exist, I wouldn't say they are "not realistic".

I agree that it would be nice to have these at some point in the future. However, that may be many decades from now, if ever. If I was pressed to "bet" on the future of true self-driving taxis I'd estimate that we don't see them in the next 30 years. I have followed the Tesla, Uber, and Waymo claims fairly closely. I think the Bloomberg article below best summarizes where we are at now, and why we have a long way to go. For what it's worth, Elon Musk's use of the label "self-driving" is both explicitly wrong and, in my opinion, dangerous.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...uverify%20wall

[Jersey Boss]

Martin I took the most issue with your prediction of "most people won't have to worry...". I think the subset of people embracing this as not close to "most".

[KTB]

Elon Musk has said that at some point in the future, Tesla will no longer sell cars to consumers. They will only build them for his robotaxi service. He has also stated that Tesla owners will be able to make their own car a robotaxi too. Anytime it's not being used, it will carry around paying riders. I've seen YouTube videos of people calling the car an investment that will earn them income. Someday this may be possible, but I don't foresee it anytime soon.

[Swake]

As to your last point - true to an extent, but Francis Energy (an OK company) is planning on putting chargers every 50 miles across middle America, from what I understand. Not every 50 miles on an Interstate, but apparently no matter where you are in middle America (not sure how they define that), you'll never be more than 50 miles away from a charger. Ambitious, hope they can pull it off.

Is Francis Energy related to Kaiser-Francis Oil Company? I bet it is.

[April in the Plaza]

Is Francis Energy related to Kaiser-Francis Oil Company? I bet it is.

No relation.

[Plutonic Panda]

Tell you what though, if the Fiat 500e Abarth comes to the US I’ll likely purchase that as my first EV. Looks like a super fun car to drive.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/2023-f...oIB3HWPg6wt8Yc

[FighttheGoodFight]

But then you have to drive a Fiat! Fix It Again Tomorrow!

[TheTravellers]

Tell you what though, if the Fiat 500e Abarth comes to the US I’ll likely purchase that as my first EV. Looks like a super fun car to drive.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/2023-f...oIB3HWPg6wt8Yc

Uglier than the MINI, but I'm biased. Range is longer and charging is faster than the MINI, though, so....