Not returning anytime soon - the wet pattern looks to remain in place through at least the end of May. We could even see some flooding concerns if this verifies. June is our MCS season where we typically pick up a few more inches from nighttime thunderstorm complexes before the heat dome arrives and shuts things off in July. The more soil moisture we can get in May and June helps tremendously.
GFS forecasted rainfall through late May
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Yesterday was a great day to plant things. The ground was soft due to the rain Sunday morning, then it dried up and we got rain Monday morning.
That was from May 7th. A lot of these areas saw .5 to 1 inch of rain the past seven days. The whole state is never going to be 'perfect' especially the west. Given that OKC has more rain in the forecast, I don't think it will be an issue for the metro. A couple of you talk like were the driest state when its far better than past years.
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Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.
Maybe adding context and keeping things in perspective is important to me? Its a dated graphic.
SPC has upgraded tomorrow evening's storms to Slight Risk across most of W and C OK.
Yes, late afternoon/early evening storms will likely pass to our NW, then the Metro looks to gets in on the action by mid evening. Storm mode looks to be messy with multicell clusters, maybe some brief supercells as well. Tornado threat is very low, but hail/wind threat is worth mentioning. Also think there's a chance of street flooding with multiple rounds of convection. The active pattern looks to continue into Thursday/Thursday Night, though I do wonder if the atmosphere will be too worked over to maintain the severe threat by that point. Would expect a continued heavy rain/localized flash flood threat either way on Thursday as moisture profiles continue to improve, plus we will possibly be approaching an inch of rain with tomorrow night's storms.
Rain moves out by midday Friday. Friday evening is pleasant, but after that a ridge builds in and gives us our first real extended stretch of heat and humidity starting on Saturday. Could see our first 90 degree day of the year by this time next week. As others have mentioned, this tends to be a favorable pattern for nocturnal MCS activity. The MCS train is currently forecast to set up to our north and east, but this often trends south and west over time, so it's probably worth keeping an eye on.
Ridge appears to break down somewhat by Memorial weekend, and the resulting southwest flow could possibly return us to a favorable pattern for higher-end severe weather, so will be keeping an eye on that as well. Way too early to make any predictions, but it's getting some chatter on social media.
The weather twitter hype train is in full force for next week.
^Thank you. Appreciate all the good wx info that you all post here.
Just want to give a heads up too if you're going to the Thunder game it might really be raining at the end of the game so keep that in mind if you have to walk back to your car.
SPC upgraded NW OK to Enhanced Risk for tonight. This will be due to severe wind probabilities.
I agree with SEMI above, flooding threat will be high wherever the training clusters of storms setup. Could see a swath of 2-3" rainfall amounts somewhere from I-40 corridor out in W OK - trailing into C/NC OK.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for Western Oklahoma in the next hour or so. Might include OKC or might stop a county to the west. This could be a situation where the storms buzz the Metro for several hours without actually moving in until Midnight or so, or it could a situation where mesoscale interactions result in the main convective complex sinking south and moving in several hours before what’s currently modeled. Will just have to wait and see what the evolution ends up being.
Note that while there is a currently a swath of convective cloudiness and isolated storms roughly from Hollis to Minco, it seems likely that the main area of initiation will be to the north of this. But at the same time, the small cell currently over Minco doesn’t really show any signs of weakening, so portions of the Metro will probably get a brief downpour during rush hour.
Last night's storms were kinda weird, right?
Got 0.42" near downtown Edmond - no complaints here since we didn't get any extreme here either. That wind was significant in various spots.
Today's Drought Monitor report shows improvement across the state, and since the data is only through early on May 14, next week's should be even better.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Curre...onitor.aspx?OK
Map released: Thurs. May 16, 2024
Data valid: May 14, 2024 at 8 a.m. EDT
I didn't know we were expecting possible bad weather last night but woke up to two fence panels on the ground. We are near NW 178th and May.
This will be our first "hot" weekend - humid with temps close to 90 across the state Saturday and Sunday. Another storm system will clip N OK Monday morning and again Wednesday morning.
If BIG IF but if the cap breaks in Western Ok things could get a bit interesting today.
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