OKC Real Estate Market

[oklip955]

wow. You got lucky on this deal and not having to pay the higher price. I might now not be able to do a 2 car garage.

[Bunty]

I know several who are moving here specifically for our state's politics. They have had it on the coasts and are specifically looking for a conservative place to live.

This is a Vacaville, CA family's story for wanting to move to Oklahoma. They bought 10 acres and built a farm style house on it :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WX7Euyvtv8

[C_M_25]

This is a Vacaville, CA family's story for wanting to move to Oklahoma. They bought 10 acres and built a farm style house on it :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WX7Euyvtv8

I’m curious what the census shows as we haven’t talked much about how many people are selling and leaving Oklahoma. A massive influx of Californians is something I hope isn’t happening. That’s not a political statement btw. I have nothing against them, but their home values are so inflated which gives them a ton of cash when they sell. That influx of cash can cause a sudden rise in prices which could price many Oklahomans out of the game.

I hope it’s just a local phenomenon at the end of the day. Also, I still can’t help but wonder what’s really driving people here. Cheap housing isn’t enough, IMO. What industries are pulling people in?

[SouthOfTheVillage]

I’m curious what the census shows as we haven’t talked much about how many people are selling and leaving Oklahoma. A massive influx of Californians is something I hope isn’t happening. That’s not a political statement btw. I have nothing against them, but their home values are so inflated which gives them a ton of cash when they sell. That influx of cash can cause a sudden rise in prices which could price many Oklahomans out of the game.

I hope it’s just a local phenomenon at the end of the day. Also, I still can’t help but wonder what’s really driving people here. Cheap housing isn’t enough, IMO. What industries are pulling people in?

Most of them continue to work remotely for their coastal employers. It’s actually a pretty good deal for OKC. Should likely see more of this.

[GoGators]

I’m curious what the census shows as we haven’t talked much about how many people are selling and leaving Oklahoma. A massive influx of Californians is something I hope isn’t happening. That’s not a political statement btw. I have nothing against them, but their home values are so inflated which gives them a ton of cash when they sell. That influx of cash can cause a sudden rise in prices which could price many Oklahomans out of the game.

I hope it’s just a local phenomenon at the end of the day. Also, I still can’t help but wonder what’s really driving people here. Cheap housing isn’t enough, IMO. What industries are pulling people in?

You don't want people moving to Oklahoma because "they have to much money?" It seems like that is exactly what the state and city needs.

I just want to throw in that I highly doubt there is an exodus of Californians moving to OK right now. Definitely not enough to affect housing prices in the OKC metro by any noticeable amount.

This is very anecdotal but the industry that is probably drawing the most people from out of state right now is the marijuana industry. I have done a small amount of work for a few new grows setting up shop in OKC and these companies were all out of state people moving to OK. Mostly from Colorado and California with a few from Nevada, Tennessee, and Oregon. Again very anecdotal with a tiny sample size. All of them did mention that Oklahoma was the wild west and they were coming to leave behind the regulations of their home states. The Oklahoma marijuana industry is nationally known and has a lot of positive buzz around it.

[Pete]

The easiest way to tell if there is a real influx from elsewhere is you start noticing a lot of out-of-state license plates because people usually change them long after they have arrived. (You'll see plenty of stories about this for Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Austin.)

And you just almost never see them here, except Texans likely visiting their families, or the occasional upper midwest plate if you are heading north on I-35 (passing through).

People are kidding themselves if they think any large migration into Oklahoma is happening.

[DowntownMan]

The easiest way to tell if there is a real influx from elsewhere is you start noticing a lot of out-of-state license plates because people usually change them long after they have arrived. (You'll see plenty of stories about this for Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Austin.)

And you just almost never see them here, except Texans likely visiting their families, or the occasional upper midwest plate if you are heading north on I-35 (passing through).

People are kidding themselves if they think any large migration into Oklahoma is happening.

Home in my neighborhood was just bought by a California family moving here. Bought house without seeing anything except pictures and offered 25k over asking price

[LocoAko]

The easiest way to tell if there is a real influx from elsewhere is you start noticing a lot of out-of-state license plates because people usually change them long after they have arrived. (You'll see plenty of stories about this for Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Austin.)

And you just almost never see them here, except Texans likely visiting their families, or the occasional upper midwest plate if you are heading north on I-35 (passing through).

People are kidding themselves if they think any large migration into Oklahoma is happening.

Yeah. I guess we'll know soon enough with the census, although that may have occurred too early into the pandemic to catch this trend. It all still sounds extremely anecdotal to me. I had another person last night claim that people are flooding into Oklahoma because of lockdown policies in liberal states and I just don't know if this is a story people here are eager to tell themselves. I could see this being true if we're talking about Texas. Conversely, I know multiple people who have either left Oklahoma or plan to because of where it is now politically and where it is headed, and obviously we won't be hearing about those anecdotes by people selling homes to buyers here. I'd be shocked if there was any significance to this trend, as the little data we have on the subject re: CA doesn't even bear this out. It could just be poor memory, but I honestly felt like there was more momentum for attracting out of state folks to OKC about 5 years ago than there is now. *shrug*


Study: https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-conte...California.pdf

KEY RESEARCH FINDINGS
• We find no evidence of a pronounced exodus from the state.
• Drilling down, however, we find that net exits from the Bay Area have increased during the pandemic,
particularly in San Francisco, where exits in the second through fourth quarters of 2020 were 31%
higher than during the same period in 2019, and new entrances were 21% lower.
• Historically, the number of people leaving California tracks the number of people entering California,
but this pattern deviated in Q4 2020, when 267,000 people left the state and only 128,000 entered.
• Despite concerns about tax revenue impacts, there is little evidence that wealthy Californians are
leaving en masse

[SouthOfTheVillage]

I’ve seen tons of luxury vehicles driving around OKC with California Plates. And, no, these weren’t rentals.

[BoulderSooner]

california and ny are going to lose house seats for the first time ever

[Pete]

^

Well that proves it then!

SOME people are moving here as they always have. I completely reject the idea that people without family ties are moving here in large numbers.

And the growth rate of the city and state show that.

[Pete]

[FighttheGoodFight]

Some of the prelim numbers in 2020 should Oklahoma with a 6.7% population increase since 2010. I hope that is not true as that would be below our 2000 to 2010 increase of 8.7%. We will know more in April went the final counts come out.

I expect to see big gains in Texas, North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon and Florida. Big loss for NY and medium loss for California.

Oregon will be interesting since their population was similar to ours. Not a super comparable state in any other fashion I guess.

[dcsooner]

The easiest way to tell if there is a real influx from elsewhere is you start noticing a lot of out-of-state license plates because people usually change them long after they have arrived. (You'll see plenty of stories about this for Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Austin.)

And you just almost never see them here, except Texans likely visiting their families, or the occasional upper midwest plate if you are heading north on I-35 (passing through).

People are kidding themselves if they think any large migration into Oklahoma is happening.

Agree, what you describe relative to license plates is overwhelming here in NC

[dcsooner]

Some of the prelim numbers in 2020 should Oklahoma with a 6.7% population increase since 2010. I hope that is not true as that would be below our 2000 to 2010 increase of 8.7%. We will know more in April went the final counts come out.

I expect to see big gains in Texas, North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon and Florida. Big loss for NY and medium loss for California.

Oregon will be interesting since their population was similar to ours. Not a super comparable state in any other fashion I guess.

Hate to be a downer, but Oklahoma for multiple reasons some of which I won't discuss for fear of rapid reprisal has become a lot less desirable as a relocation option over the last 15 years. I will however submit two reasons, the most partisan politics of any State I can think of that has no tolerance for alternative views and consistently is viewed nationally as simply backward and inept. Second, Oklahomas people and leadership (of course not all) are tolerant of mediocrity in almost ALL issues important to people, hence the States poor rankings by any measure to other more prosperous and growing States.

[Rover]

We get California retirees that made money off of the appreciation of their homes and need to stretch what they have out for the rest of their lives. They aren't really earning that much so income taxes don't matter as much as low property taxes. They take the profit from their Cali homes and pay cash for homes here, and maybe put a little in the bank. For the most part they don't have kids and don't have to worry about education. They aren't necessarily coming here to start businesses, so they aren't concerned about an educated work force. They aren't looking for high paying jobs as they are likely retired and have a pension from a Cali company. We have relatively cheap homes. We have pretty darn good medical communitiy, so that is a positive for them. We have pretty open streets and freeways, so driving is less a problem.

All in all, we are the Mexico of US retirement destinations .... low cost for fixed income populations and a fairly peaceful lifestyle.

However, we aren't all that attractive for high earners and for moving a business here. Those go to Austin, Columbus, Charlotte, and the like. Their economic growth far eclipses us.

[gopokes88]

The south is really interesting. Oklahoma is basically average

[Jersey Boss]

ME, WV, & AR numbers surprise me.

[Pete]

^

All are big retirement spots.

I know a bunch of people who have retired to Idaho, hence the #1 ranking.

[Jake]

A Tale of Two Dakotas.

[oklip955]

One thing most people miss is the $10K deduct from taxes on a pension, Ira or other type retirement money. Add to this no taxes on SS and lower housing costs compaired to other states and lower property taxes. Food and gas is cheaper along with electricity. Retirees see this as a plus. We dont get bad winters, ie long cold and snowy. For some folks we have the interstates so if they have kids scattered out then they are more centrally located for family get togethers. I keep meeting people who have left either Calif or Chicago due to laws they dont like or high taxes and love the cheaper housing prices. WE are not perfect but for some people we do offer a better place to live. Remember lots of people have different needs/wants.

[GoGators]

One thing most people miss is the $10K deduct from taxes on a pension, Ira or other type retirement money. Add to this no taxes on SS and lower housing costs compaired to other states and lower property taxes. Food and gas is cheaper along with electricity. Retirees see this as a plus. We dont get bad winters, ie long cold and snowy. For some folks we have the interstates so if they have kids scattered out then they are more centrally located for family get togethers. I keep meeting people who have left either Calif or Chicago due to laws they dont like or high taxes and love the cheaper housing prices. WE are not perfect but for some people we do offer a better place to live. Remember lots of people have different needs/wants.

We need to attract a lot more people than the occasional retiree. Lots of people have different needs/wants but if we are only catering to the retiree wants/needs then the state is in trouble. Businesses aren't going to flock to the state just because a couple of senior citizens liked the tax break on SS. How many of the above pros that you listed are going to convince a young educated workforce to move here?

[Pete]

^

If there is any appeal to a retiree, it's to those without much money. Those with more options choose rural Oregon, Florida, Maine and many other places.

And even with the "it's cheap here" approach, I think it's highly unusual for someone to retire here without family ties.

[Bunty]

Hate to be a downer, but Oklahoma for multiple reasons some of which I won't discuss for fear of rapid reprisal has become a lot less desirable as a relocation option over the last 15 years. I will however submit two reasons, the most partisan politics of any State I can think of that has no tolerance for alternative views and consistently is viewed nationally as simply backward and inept. Second, Oklahomas people and leadership (of course not all) are tolerant of mediocrity in almost ALL issues important to people, hence the States poor rankings by any measure to other more prosperous and growing States.

Yet, there are states, such as Kansas, that don't have as much of this reputation of backwardness and/or stubborn partisan politics, while not being able to draw as many new people as Oklahoma.

Fortunately not all of them, but too many rural counties try to hold back Oklahoma, while adding to their own detriment. I don't think they need to worry about too many people moving in and driving up home prices.

[Bunty]

I hope it’s just a local phenomenon at the end of the day. Also, I still can’t help but wonder what’s really driving people here. Cheap housing isn’t enough, IMO. What industries are pulling people in?

It doesn't necessarily depend on industry. If you work for the post office, you can apply to be transferred to any other post office in the country, while hoping the wait won't be too long. I suppose some of the private businesses with locations around the country would offer the same.