June 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[gjl]

I'm ready for it to dry out and get hot. Not that I like the heat. I hate it but I'm ready to quit mowing every 5 days. I live on an acre property and it's a lot to mow.

[okatty]

In Dallas ……and heat index at DFW TONIGHT AT 10 PM is 106.

[BG918]

Let's hope this high shifts further east!

[Anonymous.]

As I mentioned yesterday, currently there is a MCS working its way out of KS into N OK. Right now the complex is not severe warned. However, it is currently entering juicy airspace near Enid, will keep watch on that.

And then the W parts of the state will likely see another MCS form from early-on isolated development this afternoon. Where this cluster travels and how far is a difficult forecast at this time.

SPC has upgraded all of C and N OK to Slight Risk category to reflect current MCS path and mentions the potential for outflow boundary interaction for additional storm interaction from this afternoon's storms.

[Pete]

I stepped outside this morning around 9 AM and was hit with a wall of moisture.

Would prefer the high-90s because at least it's a dry heat.

[Anonymous.]

Expect SPC to trim the Slight Risk back out of C OK on this upcoming outlook. The MCS that blew through late this morning has left a stabilized wake. The main action this afternoon will be firing up mostly along the TX/OK border. Stray shot at some development trying to come into C OK, but it is very unlikely.

[gjl]

Got very light rain for 10-15 minutes on NW around 11:30. Barely enough to even show in the rain gauge

[Anonymous.]

Severe cluster of storms has entered W OK and is attempting to make a run to the ESE. Current trajectory keeps the heaviest stuff SW of OKC, but we could still see some showers swing through the area this evening.

Watch issuance for this MCS is unlikely. (20%)

EDIT: Okay just as I post this, the watch is now issued due to additional development entering SW OK. The SVR Watch includes basically everything in W and SW OK and goes directly up to SW OKC.

[Anonymous.]

The watch has been expanded to include OKC now. It’s going to be a close call!

[C_M_25]

Disappointing that we’ll miss out on this rain tonight. Going to be a very hot and dry week, but the GFS is hinting of a wet pattern for the first week of July.

[baralheia]

Disappointing that we’ll miss out on this rain tonight. Going to be a very hot and dry week, but the GFS is hinting of a wet pattern for the first week of July.

Looking at the radar right now and I feel fairly confident that most of the OKC metro will see some rain within the next 2 hours

[chssooner]

Looking at the radar right now and I feel fairly confident that most of the OKC metro will see some rain within the next 2 hours

Going to go just south. Unless more forms north behind it and to the north.

[baralheia]

Going to go just south. Unless more forms north behind it and to the north.

It's raining at my house in south OKC as we speak. Radar shows the line extends from roughly The Village, south through the metro to Cole, heading ENE at 35mph.

[floyd the barber]

It's raining at my house in south OKC as we speak. Radar shows the line extends from roughly The Village, south through the metro to Cole, heading ENE at 35mph.

The weather has been wild.

It's almost as if Mother Nature fell asleep and realized Spring was supposed to happen months ago.

[chssooner]

It's raining at my house in south OKC as we speak. Radar shows the line extends from roughly The Village, south through the metro to Cole, heading ENE at 35mph.

It ended up moving more east than I thought. I live near Tinker, and it poured, and was loud! Scared my poor doggo! Just wish it was a little slower moving.

[Mississippi Blues]

It ended up moving more east than I thought. I live near Tinker, and it poured, and was loud! Scared my poor doggo! Just wish it was a little slower moving.

Same here near Baptist Medical except it was my 3-year-old that was startled by how suddenly everything ramped up.

[BG918]

I feel like we’ve seen more severe weather with this pattern than we did all spring with the typical dryline or cold front scenario. Tulsa got hit by their worst storm in over a decade, Texas towns have been hit by tornadoes and high winds every night this past week and the Denver area saw multiple days of large hail and flash flooding (this is also the 2nd wettest May/June on record there).

This is also unbelievable considering how dry western OK was for so long - some areas of eastern OK are now running well below average entering the dry and hot summer months. Not good

[Anonymous.]

Eastern OK will be fine. They have barely gone 90 days without being the rainfall winner of the state for the first time in like half a decade. Technically as of 3 days ago, western OK is still in a moderate to severe drought and E OK is essentially drought free. What has happened across W TX, W OK, and W KS is a miracle. This rainfall is something you pay for out there. Cycles like this replenish the land.

The more moisture you get out west, the more benefits are shared by everyone else to the east.

This coming week, it looks like nearly everyone in the state will see 100F. No question the drought will be back eventually, we must welcome every drop of water that comes to this region.

[jn1780]

Eastern OK will be fine. They have barely gone 90 days without being the rainfall winner of the state for the first time in like half a decade. Technically as of 3 days ago, western OK is still in a moderate to severe drought and E OK is essentially drought free. What has happened across W TX, W OK, and W KS is a miracle. This rainfall is something you pay for out there. Cycles like this replenish the land.

The more moisture you get out west, the more benefits are shared by everyone else to the east.

This coming week, it looks like nearly everyone in the state will see 100F. No question the drought will be back eventually, we must welcome every drop of water that comes to this region.

Yeah, Western Oklahoma would have loved to see 2 to 4 inches of rain several months ago.

[SEMIweather]

The vast majority of the state is also well-positioned to benefit from what should be at least a moderate El Niño as we approach the fall and winter months.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded a decent swath of SW OK to Slight Risk. This is for the outflow boundary that is currently being laid out by this morning's MCS. Currently this cluster of storms is marching ESE, much like the small complex we saw last night. Models show it dying out before reaching C OK, but we shall watch and see.

[SEMIweather]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for most of the Metro for another MCS approaching from the WNW.

[Anonymous.]

Yea this thing is picking up some steam. Damaging wind event is increasing coming up after lunch. Now is the time to get your trampolines and outdoor furniture secured.

[BG918]

The NWS has not been very good at picking up these MCS events. Barely even a chance of rain a couple days ago, and 20% chance this morning

[SEMIweather]

The NWS has not been very good at picking up these MCS events. Barely even a chance of rain a couple days ago, and 20% chance this morning

I think that OUN is one of the very best NWS offices and certainly better than the local media in terms of not overhyping events, but you can almost always count on them underestimating cold front strength in the winter, and overestimating ridge strength in the summer.