General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017

[Dessert Fox]

I think this spring could be more on the quiet side - I fear the drought is coming back strong, hope it reverses - even eastern parts of OK are slipping into bad drought

I've heard a few people on other forums also mention the plains being a bit more quiet this year. Is it just the drought or are there other things that make you think it'll end up being quieter?

Also, the rain really is nice. It's been a while since we've gotten much at all.

[bchris02]

I think this spring could be more on the quiet side - I fear the drought is coming back strong, hope it reverses - even eastern parts of OK are slipping into bad drought.

I hope you are right on this (at least the severe part, don't want drought). Is there still La Nina at play at all? Also, what's your opinion on how weather in the Pacific Northwest affects severe weather in the southern plains? I've heard/read that stronger than normal cold fronts in the PNW can cause a more active severe season in the southern plains. This tends to happen during La Nina years which is why many of Oklahoma's worst tornado seasons happen whenever there is a La Nina.

Oklahoma is due for a quieter spring. While the past few years the OKC area has been spared the worst of it, with the exception of 2014 every spring since 2010 has been on the active side.

[Anonymous.]

La Nina is gone. We are more in a neutral flow.

Looking short-term for OK weather. We are headed for a nice mild weekend, but likely cloudy as a storm spins through the main body of TX. A second low comes blasting through over the plains Sunday night into Monday, bringing likely rain and weak thunderstorms to OK - the best chance will be east of I-35.

Most of next week looks to be about the same in terms of temperatures, upper 60s for highs, lows in the 40s.

Looking long-term, GFS is hinting at a possible return of winter. It is inconsistent at the moment, but still is present in some runs. A possible late-season winterstorm is not out of the question if the cold air comes to fruition.

[riflesforwatie]

I hope you are right on this (at least the severe part, don't want drought). Is there still La Nina at play at all? Also, what's your opinion on how weather in the Pacific Northwest affects severe weather in the southern plains? I've heard/read that stronger than normal cold fronts in the PNW can cause a more active severe season in the southern plains. This tends to happen during La Nina years which is why many of Oklahoma's worst tornado seasons happen whenever there is a La Nina.

Oklahoma is due for a quieter spring. While the past few years the OKC area has been spared the worst of it, with the exception of 2014 every spring since 2010 has been on the active side.

Anonymous is correct - ENSO is returning to a neutral phase; most guidance has this continuing for the next few months, but this time of year is usually the trickiest for the climate models when it comes to ENSO prediction. There is a teleconnection between La Nina and colder-than-average temps in the PNW and a separate teleconnection between La Nina and increased tornado activity in the Southern Plains, but these are just based on departures from the average.

It only takes a couple of tornadic storms or a couple of big severe weather days in a season to create the impression that things were "active". On the other hand, you can have a greater than average # of tornadoes in mostly lightly-populated areas but still have the feeling that the season was relatively "inactive".

[Anonymous.]

...

It only takes a couple of tornadic storms or a couple of big severe weather days in a season to create the impression that things were "active". On the other hand, you can have a greater than average # of tornadoes in mostly lightly-populated areas but still have the feeling that the season was relatively "inactive".

Exactly. I have made this point many times across a lot of platforms. The general hype that weather and storms are becoming "more violent" or "worse" is mainly attributed to the fact that the coverage and spotting has increased significantly over the past decade, even.

This is most obvious when looking at tornado reports history. You will get multiple reports of tornados out in the middle-of-nowhere because storm chasers are reporting every single funnel that reaches the ground. Back in the day, we didn't have the spotters and technology we do today to make these reports. Also population and coverage of said population has increased significantly - this helps create the illusion of worse storms, because the chances of being impacted are greater.

[Anonymous.]

Rain beginning to develop now over C TX. This will expand north and sweep across OK this evening. Best chances are along and east of I-35. Could get a nice inch or so out of this.

[Anonymous.]

Solid drink for the I-35 corridor last night. Beautiful weather this week, fire danger will be approaching dangerous levels by the end of the week. Friday and over the weekend will be the beginning of perhaps a significant cool down. Long-term GFS is suggesting the beginning of March as being abnormally cold. Storm systems are also ramping up over the same period, so will need to keep a watch on it all.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Solid drink for the I-35 corridor last night. Beautiful weather this week, fire danger will be approaching dangerous levels by the end of the week. Friday and over the weekend will be the beginning of perhaps a significant cool down. Long-term GFS is suggesting the beginning of March as being abnormally cold. Storm systems are also ramping up over the same period, so will need to keep a watch on it all.

I had a feeling we weren't out of another blast of cold air coming in. Nice to have some good rain last night.

[Celebrator]

We got 2.2" at our house in east Edmond! So grateful for almost 3.75" of rain in last 7 days!

[OKCRT]

Are the city lakes at normal levels after that soaking we got?

[OkiePoke]

Are the city lakes at normal levels after that soaking we got?

Nope. It currently sits 7.5 ft. below normal. A few days ago it was 8.5/9 ft. below normal. There is some water still running into the lake, but should stop fairly soon.

[FighttheGoodFight]

This weekend looking like a bit colder on Friday and Saturday? Of course I have an all night smoke on Friday to Saturday so I hope the cold and wind don't kill my temps.

[riflesforwatie]

This weekend looking like a bit colder on Friday and Saturday? Of course I have an all night smoke on Friday to Saturday so I hope the cold and wind don't kill my temps.

We should avoid a hard freeze in central OKC, and maybe a freeze at all. It will be close. Valleys outside the metro should easily reach hard freeze temps though.

[AP]

^What makes you so sure???