General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017

[stratosphere]

Freezing rain is not good

[SomeGuy]

Yeah, please no more winter precip heck I'd be fine with regular rain.

[Bunty]

Wow, more than just a few below zero lows Saturday morning in Oklahoma. Two locations in Oklahoma had -12 for the lowest.

[Anonymous.]

We will make 60s Tues, Wed, and Thurs. Fire danger will be very high through the week. This is all ahead of an extremely large storm system coming across the US. This has the makeup of a classic winter storm for this part of the country. One of those, "Severe thunderstorms in SE OK with blizzard conditions in NW OK." We are still 5 days from event, but models are consistent on impacts from the storm. Precipitation type will be a very fine line, so forecasters will lose a lot of hair this week.

As it looks today for C OK, hefty ice storm late Thursday into Friday and being followed up by several inches of snow over the weekend.

[OKCRT]

Pulling for snow, even blizzard conditions instead of ice.

[TU 'cane]

Welp, it's that time of the year for us.
Keep us posted as always, and thanks again all.

[OkiePoke]

I'm flying in to OKC on Friday. I will keep checking this page to anticipate delays.

[TU 'cane]

Started reading around after checking this earlier and it does certainly appear that this weekend may be VERY interesting for this part of the country.

[SoonerDave]

NWS is actually putting out a Special Weather Statement about this Friday. Seems this is getting just a bit more serious as time passes - and I think they deserve kudos for the specific wording that, in effect, says they just don't know exactly where the freezing line is going to end up, and for everyone to stay alert as the week progresses:

...Dangerous Winter Storm Possible Friday into Sunday...

A slow moving storm system will affect the southern Plains Friday
into Sunday, bringing heavy amounts of precipitation to the
region. A wintry mix of primarily rain and freezing rain is
expected across the area. Some sleet and snow may also be
possible across northern and western parts of Oklahoma. Exact
precipitation types, amounts, and locations remain uncertain at
this time.

What we know at this time:

* Significant ice accumulations over 0.25 inches will be possible
for portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* Snow and sleet accumulations could occur in western and
northern Oklahoma in addition to any ice accumulations.

* Flooding may result due to heavy rainfall across portions of
south central and southeastern Oklahoma.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel conditions will be likely. Power
outages may result from heavy ice accumulations.

What can you do now?

* Stay up to date with the latest forecasts, check back frequently
for updates.

* If you are traveling this weekend, be prepared to change your
plans and make sure you have a safety kit in your car, such as a
blanket, water, a flashlight, and nonperishable food.

* Be prepared if you lose power, make sure you have flashlights,
extra batteries, food, and your cell phone charged.

[Bunty]

Maybe it reflects the models are already in fairly close agreement with each other about the storm.

The special statement covers all but eastern Oklahoma. Counties included:
Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Washi ta; Woods; Woodward

[Anonymous.]

GFS is indicating warming trend today. If that holds, we could dodge a potential ice storm. The amount of moisture forecasted with this system isn't even real. I can't remember the last time a storm was to dig so far south it brings in true GOM moisture in January.

We will have to watch the models the next couple days, we are almost in the NAM window and will have a nice idea for this storm.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I think I will just plan on early grocery shopping this week for Wednesday. Can't hurt

[SoonerDave]

GFS is indicating warming trend today. If that holds, we could dodge a potential ice storm. The amount of moisture forecasted with this system isn't even real. I can't remember the last time a storm was to dig so far south it brings in true GOM moisture in January.

We will have to watch the models the next couple days, we are almost in the NAM window and will have a nice idea for this storm.

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

[BusySpeechMom]

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

Wondering the same. Thank you for asking! LOL

[Roger S]

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

Yes

[Anonymous.]

Models are continuing the trend of warmer air. It looks like it could be a devastating ice storm for parts of N OK and up through Kansas City area.

For C OK, unless models start dramatically reversing, this will be a very cold rain. Up to 3 inches worth. It will be a good drought dampening rain, and help clean the salt/sand off of the roadways from last weekend.

[OKCisOK4me]

I was watching the replay of News9's 10pm newscast last night this morning and David Payne had that freezing line south and east of the metro by at least 40 miles.

Of course, we all know the forecast will flip flop until 24 hours in advance. I'm all for rain so I hope you're correct, Anonymous!

[Anonymous.]

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.

48 hours ago on Sunday we were looking at doomsday across a large area of the plains. Now we are looking at maybe a narrow corridor somewhere across KS. Models are notorious to underestimate cold air at the surface, so this forecast needs to be watched every run. The track of the low is very important.

[SoonerDave]

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.

48 hours ago on Sunday we were looking at doomsday across a large area of the plains. Now we are looking at maybe a narrow corridor somewhere across KS. Models are notorious to underestimate cold air at the surface, so this forecast needs to be watched every run. The track of the low is very important.

Days/weeks like this that make you glad you're a meteorologist, right, Anon?? Do you have any hair left

I've often thought the only thing worse than tracking/forecasting severe weather in OK might actually be *winter* weather in OK, because it always seems to be this curious variety of roulette in that you know something's coming, it might be terrible, unless it isn't....

I'm holding out for the noon update (that is the next one for GFS, isn't it?)

[Anonymous.]

The NWS will definitely be hairless by the end of this one if the freezing line doesn't do what the models are suggesting. Also just in case anyone is thinking they are misled, I am not a meteorologist by profession. You can call me an armchair meteorologist, or amateur met - but I only do this out of my fascination for weather and the science around it. I guess you could say this is like those "I Am Not A Lawyer, but..." posts.

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

[LakeEffect]

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

Reading the NWS statements, they keeping noting the movement of GFS and relative consistency of the ECMWMF. I go back to one of their first statements - it'll be fascinating, from meteorological standpoint, to see how this plays out.

[LakeEffect]

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.

KOCO staff are also noting the "POTENTIAL" Ice Storm. Via Brad Sowder at 10:15 am:

"A significant ice storm could be brewing for Oklahoma, Friday through Sunday.
We are very confident on the precipitation, but precip. type...well.

It is all about the temperature, we may be able to get above freezing temperatures Sat. and Sun. but that is an unknown at this point.

For planning purposes, plan for an Ice Storm and hope for slightly warmer temperatures."

[SoonerDave]

The NWS will definitely be hairless by the end of this one if the freezing line doesn't do what the models are suggesting. Also just in case anyone is thinking they are misled, I am not a meteorologist by profession. You can call me an armchair meteorologist, or amateur met - but I only do this out of my fascination for weather and the science around it. I guess you could say this is like those "I Am Not A Lawyer, but..." posts.

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

Changed...how? he sez with bated breath

[Anonymous.]

I want to wait for the 18Z [and probably the 00Z] loads before making any suggestions, but both NAM and GFS came in colder than earlier runs (after about 6 straight runs of warming). GFS has shifted the low's track north by about 30 miles. All of this will significantly impact the precipitation types.

[OKCRT]

I hope it snows a foot. No ice though