General Weather Discussion - November 2016

[Anonymous.]

Next action will be in November, so starting thread now.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks like a solid chance at rain and storms right now. Potential for severe weather is present.

Looking long-term, the best shot at a chance of a good freeze is showing up the week of November 15.

[Anonymous.]

Short-term models are developing storms across NW TX and SW OK this evening. These form a broad MCS and sweep across the I-44 corridor from WSW to ENE. Models are suggesting up to 1-2" of rain in parts of C OK.

[John1744]

Oh I hope it pans out, I'm so ready for a good steady rain.

[Pete]

We really, really need the rain.

And I got a freaking mosquito bite yesterday!! Enough with these hot temps and give me autumn!

[Anonymous.]

Healthy CU field developing all along I-44 corridor, this will be development point for storms in the next 3-5 hours.

[turnpup]

^^^^^

All summer long we used insect repellent faithfully. Once it got to be October, however, we didn't think much about it. Now we're COVERED with bites! It's horrible.

[Anonymous.]

Rain moving up across the state from the SW. It will lose intensity as it approaches C OK, so likely just a light rain.

Another round of heavier rain will move up overnight and into tomorrow morning.

[Anonymous.]

Very warm over the next few days ahead of a very powerful storm system. Looks like main impacts will be to the northern plains with their first snow storm.

Cold temperatures will sweep in behind the system that will affect OK Thursday evening and really be felt over the weekend with lows below freezing and high temperatures in the lower 50s.

[Bunty]

Very warm over the next few days ahead of a very powerful storm system. Looks like main impacts will be to the northern plains with their first snow storm.

Cold temperatures will sweep in behind the system that will affect OK Thursday evening and really be felt over the weekend with lows below freezing and high temperatures in the lower 50s.

Today, I bet I mowed my lawn for the last time this year.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Today, I bet I mowed my lawn for the last time this year.

I stopped using the sprinklers two weeks ago in an attempt to kill it. Dang thing is growing still...

[Bunty]

FREEZE WARNING
Updated: Fri Nov-18-16 02:44pm CST
Effective: Fri Nov-18-16 02:44pm CST
Expires: Sat Nov-19-16 09:00am CST

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Major; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: If you have plants... Small trees or other tender vegetation which could be harmed by a freeze... Take the time now to protect them. Potted plants normally left outdoors should be covered or brought inside away from the cold. Pets should also be brought inside.

Message summary: ...freeze warning remains in effect from 10 pm this evening to 9 am cst saturday...
* temperature...middle 20s in northern oklahoma to lower 30s in southern oklahoma and adjacent areas of northern texas.
* impacts...the freezing temperatures could kill plants and other tender vegetation left outdoors or unprotected.

[tfvc.org]

I guess it is time to take down the hummingbird feeder.

[Anonymous.]

Weak chance at some rain for Tuesday.

Pattern shift showing up after Thanksgiving weekend. Looking like 2 or 3 solid storm systems will come across the US.

[Bobby821]

Winter Weather Update:
So as you know things are going to change pretty rapidly by the end of the month. Enjoy these nice days now including our Thanksgiving. The 1st week of December signifies our first taste of winter both in temps and even possibly frozen precipitation. Still too early to be definitive in that later regard. A second cold wave, which is an arctic blast, will grip the nation towards the middle of the month. Going to get a lot more exciting around here again!

[OKCisOK4me]

^^^as only you hope, of course.

[Anonymous.]

Thought I would make a post since local media will probably start latching onto the upcoming active pattern headed our way.

Like I mentioned a few days ago, storms are lined up out in the Pacific right now and they will all be tracking directly over the central and southern plains. Each one passing by will reinforce cold air from the north. This will setup for the potential of winter storm scenarios.

Our first storm will be coming through around Sunday into Tuesday, the wide window is due to the potential for rain and storms Sunday night, with potential for an additional low developing behind the main wave that could bring snow to parts of the state. I will post a graphic below showing the current GFS scenario which puts heavy snow on the wrap-around side of the deepening low. Now we often see this scenario really far from the event date and once we approach actual event, the system never develops this second low and we just get the rain and then cold air behind it, this is the likely scenario. But since GFS keeps developing the secondary low, I will at least mention it for now. We will know more concrete details once we head into the weekend.

First storm:



Now looking ahead, there is at least 2 more large storms coming in right behind this one.

[Anonymous.]

Just update. Winter precipitation looks less likely with this first storm. Rain is expected to develop Sunday just west of I-35 and push eastward. Once this passes through, our first real cold air comes flooding in behind the system and keeps us cold all week.

Next storm system comes in by Friday and at this time it does look like potential for winter precipitation is there.

[baralheia]

Like Bobby821, I'm also looking forward to seeing some winter weather this year. I really want to see some snow! I'll certainly pass on ice, though - it's beautiful but far too disruptive and dangerous.

Any idea what the likely precip type will be next week?

[Anonymous.]

Friday-Saturday at this time is looking like very cold rain. Bedlam will likely be miserable. Still an outside shot at some snowflakes in far NW OK, but appears main body of OK will to be too warm still.

[Of Sound Mind]

… but appears main body of OK will to be too warm still.

Best part of that forecast!

[Bobby821]

Snow Update:

1st snow arrives Friday night into Saturday morning for the TX/OK panhandle. Amounts should be a couple of inches at least, but keep in mind a lot of melting will occur. The leading edge of the snow may end up being as far east from a Woodward to Elk City line.

2nd round comes in the middle of next week and impacts N and NW OK with the potential to be a little farther south. More on that later but should be a few inches in some areas.

Reminder that brutally cold temps will start arriving around the 7th as well. Teens and possibly single digits towards weeks end if the snow materializes.